1. Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Updating the Baseline and Maximum Control scenarios State of play of the EC4MACS project
Stakeholder Expert Group on the Review of the EU Air Policy; Brussels, June 6-7, 2011

2. EC4MACS: A toolbox for an integrated assessment of the interactions between different policy areas
EC4MACS considers interactions between
economic sectors,
policy areas,
spatial scales,
temporal scales,
physical processes,
etc.
All EC4MACS models and interfaces have been peer reviewed in 2010

3. Contents
Key findings on baseline development from the EC4MACS Interim Assessment
Issues for the Final Baseline

4. 1. Key findings on baseline development
Key features:
Fully integrated perspective (energy/transport/agriculture/land use)
For first time: Outlook to 2030

5. Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize
The EC4MACS Interim Assessment Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030
The Baseline assumes MS policies as of 2009, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package
Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize
No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase
Saturation of transport demand after 2020
Energy use by fuel
Energy use by sector
Energy intensity of GDP
Mileage per person

6. Decrease of cows and cattle, increase of pigs
The EC4MACS Interim Assessment Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development
Decrease of cows and cattle, increase of pigs
Strong increase in bio-fuel production
More land area for crops and wood production
Increase in fuel wood
Bio-fuel production
Livestock numbers
Wood production

7. But also C sinks from LULUCF are expected to decline
The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Current policies should lead to a decline in GHG emissions
By sector
By gas
The Baseline suggests a clear decline of GHGs, but C&E targets will not be met
Most of the decline of energy related emissions will occur after 2020, while non-CO2 gases have declined before 2010
But also C sinks from LULUCF are expected to decline
LULUCF emissions

8. The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Most air pollutant emissions will decline too
The baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC/IED directive
Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020
Only little change in NH3 after 2010
SO2
PM2.5
VOC
NOx
NH3

9. All impact indicators will decline to 2030
The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Air pollution impacts will decline, but damage costs remain substantial
All impact indicators will decline to 2030
Baseline will come close to TSAP targets in 2020, except for eutrophication
New: Assessment for Natura2000 areas
Monetary benefits dominated by health
Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020
Eutrophication
Acidification
Damage costs

10. There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits
EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

11. 2. Issues for the Final Baseline
Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions
Recent legislation to be considered in baseline
Modelling of the transport sector
Compliance with AQ limit values
National scenarios
Final EC4MACS baseline to be completed in late 2011/early 2012

12. Scope for further environmental improvements from technical measures in 2020
Health Acidification Eutrophication

13. Scope for further emission reductions: Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions
Climate change policies can increase scope for air pollution reductions:
The Interim Baseline does not assume compliance with EU Energy & Climate targets.
What to assume for the Final Baseline?
Implications of a 2-degree scenario?

14. Ambient concentrations of PM2
Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 – Baseline vs 2 degree Europe, population-weighted, annual mean
This includes only the anthropogenic fraction, and refers to background concentrations
POLES Baseline scenario
POLES 2 degree scenario
Ranges indicate variations over countries/provinces/states

15. Ambient concentrations of PM2
Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 - Baseline vs 2 degree Population-weighted, annual mean
WHO guideline
Europe China India
Ranges indicate variations over countries/provinces/states

16. Loss of statistical life expectancy - Baseline vs 2 degree Life shortening attributable to PM2.5
Europe China India

17. Scope for further emission reductions: Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions
Further potential for reductions of emissions in agriculture:
A ‘healthy diet’ scenario?

18. Agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions in 2030 EU-27, initial EC4MACS estimates

19. Modelling of the transport sector
Road transport:
GAINS employs COPERT-IV emission factors for all countries, while some countries rely on other sources in their inventories

20. Compliance with NOx emission ceilings in 2010 calculated with GAINS data, with different emission factors for road sources

21. Modelling of the transport sector
Road transport:
GAINS employs COPERT-IV emission factors for all countries, while some countries rely on other sources in their inventories
What to assume about real-life emissions for Euro-6/VI?
Consider options for Euro-7/VII?
Non-road mobile machinery:
Consider potential for faster turnover?
Ships (MEPC57):
Max. S content in marine bunker fuels 3.5% in 2012 and 0.5% in For SECAs, max. S content 1.0% in 2010 and 0.1% in 2015.
NOx Tier I and II emission limit values for newer vessels:
Tier III standard (80% reduction) for designated NOx emission control areas from 2016 onwards
What do assume for maximum control scenario?

22. Modelling compliance with AQ limit values
The EC4MACS approach to improve the former City-delta method:
Derive city-specific urban increments from the difference between CHIMERE high and low resolution runs
Box model for street canyons, linked to other scales – validate for stations with reported violations
Present methodology and validation at workshop in September 2011
Invite for comparisons with other urban models for different cities (incl. FAIRMODE, CITYZEN, MEGAPOLI, OPERA, etc.)
Urban increments for NO2 (for Jan-June period, ppb)
Provisional CHIMERE results, INERIS

23. Other issues National activity projections?
Effectiveness of emission control measures and policies?

24. Further information: www.ec4macs.eu
Conclusions
EC4MACS is now ready for the final policy analyses to provide a solid integrated knowledge base for the review of the EU air policy
Questions for discussion:
Do you agree with proposed assumptions?
Are there any methodological issues to be addressed before the final review (after EC4MACS)?
Which sectors need further attention?
Further information: