1. Implications of climate change
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

2. Projections for NL (KNMI, 2006)
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

3. Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive)
provide global warming, sea level rise and circulation change
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

4. Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive)
Regional Climate Models (EU-FP projects: PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES)
provide other variables and spatial details
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

5. Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive)
Regional Climate Models (EU-FP projects: PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES)
Historical observations
long records needed for estimating changes in local extremes
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

6. Implications for CAT and WRM markets
Key question is: “How will the return periods for local events change in a non-stationary climate?”
Considering only historical data will not provide adequate probabilities of extremes
Tendency towards probabilistic forecasts and projections based on model ensembles
requires more advanced services from NMHS than timely data deliveries alone!
WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007