1. The Status of Real Sector Macroeconomic Statistics in Africa and Around The World
Sixth Meeting of the Statistical Commission for Africa
United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Session VI – Partners Statistical Capacity Building Programmes
October 4, 2018
Claudia Dziobek, Division Chief, IMF Statistics Department

2. The IMF’s Key Roles Economic Surveillance Lending Capacity Development
Provide advice to members on adopting policies that can help them achieve macroeconomic stability, thereby accelerating economic growth and alleviating poverty.
Lending
Make financing temporarily available to member countries to help them address balance of payments problems, which include circumstances in which they find themselves short of foreign exchange because their external payments exceed their foreign exchange earnings.
Capacity Development
Offer technical assistance and training to countries, at their request, to help them build and strengthen the expertise and institutions they need to implement sound economic policies, including price statistics.
(IMF 2017 Annual Report)

3. Capacity Development – GDP and Prices
Reliable and timely GDP and price statistics are essential to support Africa’s economic policy objectives and …
GDP and other national accounts measures (e.g. household expenditure) are inputs for many policy indicators
GDP and CPI serve as references to adjust wages, pensions, social benefits, as indicators of debt sustainability …
Producer price index and CPI support estimates of real GDP
Timeliness is key to support forecasting and data analysis.

4. GDP and Prices are central to the SDGs and Indicators
More than one-third
of SDG Indicators include economic variables
SDG Indicators
232
National Accounts and Prices
Government Finance Statistics
Balance of Payments
Financial Access Survey
Impacts SDG Goals: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14
Impacts SDG Goals: 1, 7, 10, 11, 14, 16, and 17
Linked directly to SDG Goals 7 and 17
Impacts SDG Goals: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 15, 16, and 17
Linked directly to an indicator under SDG Goal 8

5. Key Criteria for GDP Age of benchmark year
The availability of quarterly GDP
Timeliness of dissemination
Independence of production and expenditure GDP
The SNA vintage applied
This presentation is based on a study of 192 countries, published as an IMF Working Paper. (Berry, Stanger, Iommi, Venter, GDP: How Useful are the Data for Policy?). The slides labeled “Africa” refer to UNECA countries.

6. GDP - Age of Benchmark Year
SNA recommends updated GDP benchmarks (usually every 5-10 years)
189 economies
AFRICA

7. Availability of Annual (A) and Quarterly (Q) GDP

8. GDP – Timeliness of Dissemination Annual GDP
189 economies
AFRICA

9. GDP – Timeliness of Dissemination Quarterly GDP
133 economies
AFRICA

10. GDP by Region and Approach

11. Are Production and Expenditure GDP Derived Independently?
167 economies
AFRICA

12. Vintage of SNA
189 economies
AFRICA

13. GDP Compilation in Africa – Key Points
Keep the base year up to date
Develop quarterly GDP
Publish data in a timely manner
In 50-60* percent of UNECA countries, these are the key deficiencies.
For countries that are fast growing, experience large demographic or technological change, these three points are very important to maintain relevance of the data.
* Consult IMF Working Paper: GDP: How Useful are the Data for Policy?, Washington DC (2018) for country-specific details – and whether this applies to your country.

14. Price Statistics to Support Policy
Timeliness and frequency of publication
Classification system adopted
Geographic (CPI) and industrial (PPI) coverage
Currentness of weights reference period
This part of the presentation is based on the forthcoming IMF Working Paper: Price Statistics in Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis.

15. CPI: Timeliness and Frequency
196 economies
AFRICA

16. CPI: COICOP Classification
196 economies
AFRICA

17. CPI: Geographic Coverage
196 economies
AFRICA
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18. CPI: Age of Weights Reference Period
target
196 economies
AFRICA
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19. PPI: Timeliness and Frequency
target
126 economies
AFRICA

20. PPI: Classification ISIC
target
126 economies
AFRICA

21. PPI: Industrial Coverage
MMU: mining, manufacturing and utilities
126 economies
AFRICA
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22. PPI: Age of PPI Weight Reference Period
target
126 economies
AFRICA

23. Key Points for Price Statistics in Africa
CPI
Compiled almost universally, monthly, timely, fairly well aligned with international standards but weights are often out of date.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Not compiled in over half of UNECA countries. PPI is needed for “real GDP” estimates and key to show the “real picture” of GDP growth, diversification, the growing role of services, etc.
Those who compile a PPI should maintain updated weights to reflect the changing economy.

24. General Conclusions
Africa compares favorably with the rest of the world (as a whole) in most areas.
Quarterly GDP, updated weights, updated base years (GDP), and timely dissemination are the key areas where improvements are needed.
This requires investments in the source data (including administrative data, surveys, etc.).
The availability of good quality GDP and prices indicators are key factors for the enhancement of policies targeting economic diversification and industrialization.

25. Thank you