1. A GOOD DECISIONS HOW TO MAKE Lee kun-sung Shin soon-young
Korea polytechnic university

2. INDEX 01 Introduction 02 Sizing up a decision
03 Finding and weighing options
04 Information is a flashlight
05 The courage to decide
06 Summary
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3. PART
Introduction 1
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4. How can I make
a good decisions?
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5. - Formalized process for making decisions
01 Introduction
- Formalized process for making decisions
Ideal decision
- Weighing options
- Defining criteria
- Seeking out different ways
Realistic decision
Reasonable assumption
Intuition
Quick projection of the immediate issue
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6. 01 Introduction
* Why?
Why do people fail to make a decision?
Decision maker invested his energy poorly across all of the different decisions he had to make.
It rarely has enough information or time to make these decision methods work.
Idealized procedures
developing experience through simulations of common problems and challenges.
intuition
Experience
they make good decisions
by maximizing those resources
training
Each other
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7. PART
Sizing up a decision 2
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8. The core question to use in sizing up a decision
The first part of decision making is to determine the significance of the decision at hand
The core question to use in sizing up a decision
The core Question
What problem is at the core of the decision?
How long will this decision impact the project?
If you’re wrong, what’s the impact/cost?
Have we made this kind of decision before?
Who has the expert perspective?
Whose approval do we need?
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9. What problem is at the core of the decision?
If you’re the wrong, what’s the impact/cost?
02 Sizing up a decision
The first part of decision making is to determine the significance of the decision at hand
The core question to use in sizing up a decision
The core Question
What problem is at the core of the decision?
How long will this decision impact the project?
If you’re wrong, what’s the impact/cost?
Have we made this kind of decision before?
Who has the expert perspective?
Whose approval do we need?
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10. PART
Finding and weighing
options 3
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11. Comparative evaluation
03 Finding and weighing options
The two basic ways people make decisions
Singular evaluation
The zone of difference
Comparative evaluation
The first reasonable alternative found is accepted.
Example)
You go to the nearest restaurant because you feel hungry.
You seriously need to go to the bathroom.
You take a cap to go to somewhere(proper?)
Singular evaluation
Several alternatives are evaluated against each other before deciding
Example)
To take a time to decide a dish that you want to eat.
When you’re character leveled up, pick a place to hunt in the dungeon or in the field.
To consider to grab a coffee in the coffee shop.
Comparative evaluation
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12. The easy way to comparison
03 Finding and weighing options
Emotions and clarity
There are always emotional and psychological issues
involved in decision making.
The easy way to comparison
The pros and cons list.
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13. Important considerations for using it
03 Finding and weighing options
Important considerations for using it
Always include a “do nothing” option
How do you know what you think you know?
Ask tough questions
Have a dissenting opinion
Consider hybrid choices.
Start on paper or a whiteboard
Refine until stable
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14. Important considerations for using it
Always include a “do nothing” option
Start on paper or a whiteboard
03 Finding and weighing options
Important considerations for using it
Always include a “do nothing” option
How do you know what you think you know?
Ask tough questions
Have a dissenting opinion
Consider hybrid choices.
Start on paper or a whiteboard
Refine until stable
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15. Discuss and evaluate Three options Sherlock Holmes : elimination rule
03 Finding and weighing options
Discuss and evaluate
Three options
Sherlock Holmes : elimination rule
If you eliminate the worst choices, whatever remains must be your best choice.
Occam’s Razor : simplicity
Process of trying to cut away all of the unneeded details.
Reflection : to step back
You need a time to digest everything you’ve been thinking about.
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16. PART
Information is a
flashlight 4
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17. Using information properly?
04 Information is a flashlight
Using information properly?
It helps us define our true opinions and make decisions
Numerical data gives a kind of precision that human language cannot
The lack of study into the answer makes the claim difficult to trust
Misconception about information
Data does not make decisions
All data isn’t created equally
Research as ammunition
The best defense against data manipulation and misinterpretation
Direct communication between people.
Talk to people who wrote the report instead of just reading it
Avoid second-, third-, and fourth-hand information whenever possible.
Talking to expert directly
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18. Precision is not accuracy
04 Information is a flashlight
Precision is not accuracy
Precision : how specific a measurement is
Accuracy : how close to reality a measurement is.
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19. PART
The courage
to decide 5
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20. Some decisions have no winning choices
05 The courage to decide
There is a big difference knowing the right choice and making the right choice.
Decision making is leaders do, and the better the leader, the more courage needed.
Some decisions have no winning choices
Good decision can have bad results
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21. Paying attention and looking back
05 The courage to decide
Paying attention and looking back
You have to make decisions that challenge you and force you to work hard.
You should pay attention to the outcomes of your decisions and evaluate, with the help of others involved.
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22. Paying attention and looking back
05 The courage to decide
Paying attention and looking back
Rough list of questions for reviewing decisions
Did the decision resolve the core issue?
Was there better logic or information that could have been used to filter out options faster?
Did the vision, specification, or requirements help in making the decision?
Did the decision help the project progress?
Were the key people brought into the process and behind the decision?
Did the decision prevent of cause other problems?
In hindsight, were the things you were worried about while making the decision the right things?
Did you have sufficient authority to make the right call?
How can what was learned in making this decision be applied elsewhere in the project?
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23. 6
SUMMARY
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24. Size up decisions before spending too much time on them.
06 Summary
There is an important skill in meta-decision making, or decisions about which decisions to invest time in.
Size up decisions before spending too much time on them.
Look for the zone of indifference and opportunities for effective use of singular evaluation.
Use comparative evaluation for the decisions worthy of more investment.
All decisions have emotional components to them whether we admit it or not.
Pros and cons lists are the most flexible method for comparative evaluation.
Information and data do not make decisions for you
You improve at decision making by reviewing past decisions and exploring them for lessons and opportunities for better tactics.
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25. Q&A
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26. Thanks
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