1. Euro area and EU test estimates for 2017Q1 and 2017Q2
TF Employment flash estimates Vienna, 5-6 October 2017 Item 6

2. Contents Input to the estimates – use of reporting template
Estimation method EA/EU employment flash
Test estimates at t+30 – coverage and results
Test estimates at t+45 – coverage and results
Conclusions
TF EMP-FL Item 6

3. 1. Input to the estimates – use of reporting template (1)
To be reported at t Q1 (if available)
TF EMP-FL Item 6

4. 1. Input to the estimates – use of reporting template (2)
To be reported at t Q1(if available)
TF EMP-FL Item 6

5. 1. Input to the estimates – use of reporting template (3)
To be reported at t+30 (or t+45) 2017Q2(if available)
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6. 1. Input to the estimates – use of reporting template (4)
In addition, please:
Complete at least 2 out of the 4 sheets (the two growth rates sheets or the two level sheets (or all)
When using the level sheets, provide data for at least 2 SA quarters or 5 NSA quarters (but preferably full series back to 2014Q1)
Use growth rates instead of factors, f.e instead of 1.53
Do not provide percentages, so 0.53 instead of %
Your data will be kept confidential!
TF EMP-FL Item 6

7. 2. Estimation method EA/EU employment flash (1)
Estimation of EA/EU employment flash estimates similar to GDP estimation method, and quite straighforward:
Growth rate of each reporting country is multiplied by its share in total EA/EU employment in persons of the most recent year
For the time being, the growth rates of the non- reporting countries is assumed to be equal to the averages of the reporting countries
TF EMP-FL Item 6

8. 2. Estimation method EA/EU employment flash (2)
16 test estimates per quarter:
T+30
QoQ seasonally adjusted and YoY non-adjusted (2)
Both with and without LFS estimates for some non- reporting countries (2*2=4)
All 4 for euro area and EU (4*2=8)
T+45
Same estimates as for t+30 (also 8)
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9. 3. Test estimates at t+30 – coverage and results (1)
Coverage t+30 test estimates
TF EMP-FL Item 6

10. 3. Test estimates at t+30 – coverage and results (2)
Results and revisions (incl. LFS)
TF EMP-FL Item 6

11. 4. Test estimates at t+45 – coverage and results (1)
Coverage t+45 test estimates
TF EMP-FL Item 6

12. 4. Test estimates at t+45 – coverage and results (2)
Results and revisions (incl. LFS)
TF EMP-FL Item 6

13. 5. Conclusions
T+30
Estimation results are (very) good  revisions at t+75 are limited
Coverage without LFS countries is too low, coverage including LFS countries is satisfactory
T+45
Coverage with and without LFS is good
TF EMP-FL Item 6

14. Euro area and EU test estimates for 2017Q1 and 2017Q2
TF Employment flash estimates Vienna, 5-6 October 2017 Item 6