1. Probabilistic forecasts
Probability of a specific event
Chance of rain; chance of frost
Expressions of a full distribution
Derived statistically or through the use of ensembles.
Used by the National Hurricane Center.

2. Discrimination Plot Decision Threshold Outcome = No Outcome = Yes Hits
False Alarms

3. Brier Score

4. Decomposing Brier Score
BS = reliability – resolution + uncertainty

5. Attribute Diagram

6. Attribute Diagrams

7. Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) Plot

8. Exercise 3 (open ex3.r) Chance of rain forecast and observation.
Discrimination plot
ROC plot
Area under ROC plot

9. Aggregation Open ex4.r Use of the aggregate function
Example of a function
A warning about factors and numeric class variables.