1. Country Experiences - UN Commission Life Saving medicines
Zimbabwe Experience
Lake Victoria Serena Golf Resort-Uganda
8 to 10 September 2015

2. Forecasting and Quantification
Part 2
Ropah Hove

3. Stock Status at NatPharm @ 31 July 2015

4. Commodities Received at NatPharm in 2012-2014

5. Quantification Process
The following participate in the process;
Programmes (Family Health, Nursing, Aids & TB)
Partners supporting PSM including DFID, UNFPA, UNICEF, JSI, CHAI, Crown Agents, UNDP, USAID, WHO
NatPharm
ZNFPC
Pharmacy Directorate at national and provincial levels
(co-ordinating role)
Process
Gathering data
Forecasting using agreed methods
Supply Planning

8. Data Challenges
Unavailability of consumption data especially from service delivery points due to low reporting rates
Incomplete records/missing data
Poor quality data
Irrational prescribing resulting in either overestimation or underestimation

9. Assumptions Adjusted data approximates the true picture
Reported data adjusted to account for missing periods
Reported data on consumption adjusted to account for any stock outs
Use surveys to get more information for morbidity based forecast such as:
prevalence of a condition
the breakdown of a condition among age groups
Age distribution of population

10. Team Zimbabwe Mrs F N Sifeku, NatPharm Mr W Madenga, MoHCC
Dr T Kanyowa, WHO
Dr S Mashizha, MoHCC
Mrs B Dube, MCAZ
Mrs C Dandira-Samatanga, MCAZ
Mrs R Hove, MoHCC