1. Introduction to Growth Scenario Working Group
Dina Mackin, Energy Division
April 14, 2017

2. Commission Guidance on Growth Scenarios
Development of growth scenarios needs to be coordinated with IRP and TPP processes in terms of process schedule and consistency of methodology and results.
Local DER adoption scenarios must support the primary distribution planning objectives of providing safe, reliable, affordable, and clean energy services to customers.
Input on known DER projects from distribution engineering staff is critical to maintaining reasonable local forecasts.
Information/feedback from stakeholders representing the various DERs could be beneficial in developing better locational DER adoption scenarios.

3. Working Group Objectives
To support a timely completion of the growth scenarios, to allow proceeding to stay on schedule
To provide an understanding to CPUC and stakeholders of the issues involved in forecasting the DER resources and disaggregating to the local level
Facilitate the documentation of the methodology and results of the growth scenarios, for future updates and for process alignment with IRP/TPP

4. 2017 Distribution Resource Planning Schedule
ICA Report
ICA Working Group
IOU Integrate Capacity Analysis Model Runs
Track 1 PD
LNBA & ICA Adoption
LNBA Working Group
LNBA Report
LNBA Working Group
IOU Locational Net Benefit Modeling
What are the products and when are they due?
Track 2 PD
Demonstration Projects C, D & E
Growth Scenario workshop
GS Report
Growth Scenario WG
Track 3 PD
Growth Scenarios
Grid Modernization
DER Deferral
Grid Mod workshop
Grid Mod whitepaper
Comments/ replies
Growth Scenario Results
DER Deferral workshop
DER Deferral whitepaper
Comments/ replies
Grid Needs Assessment
SCE GRC PD
SCE GRC
Commission Decision
CPUC Task
Party/Stakeholder input
IOU Task

5. Policy Considerations in development of growth scenarios
Consistency with other planning processes--demand forecast and CAISO's TPP
Long-term responsiveness to IRP
Updated to respond to actual DER adoption rates

6. Potential IRP-DRP Information Flows
IRP to DRP
Short Term: GHG abatement cost or marginal supply resource as input into Avoided Cost Calculator
Long Term: More granular information about system impacts or optimal amounts of different types DERs
DRP to IRP
Short Term: Forecast of autonomous growth of DERs as fixed input (DERs external to optimization)
Long Term: Location-specific cost information for DERs to inform supply curve (DERs part of optimization)
Others may be identified as processes develop
Appropriate coordination with CEC’s demand forecasting and CAISO’s transmission planning activities is an active subject of ongoing interagency dialogue