1. Paradigms and the Future of Computing
Manuel E. Bermúdez, Ph.D.
CISE, University of Florida

2. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018
Contents
Paradigms.
Paradigm definition.
The paradigm shift.
Paradigm blindness and paralysis.
Examples.
Future Perspectives.
Conclusions.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

3. Definition of Paradigm.
Thomas Kuhn (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions): "… accepted samples of practical methods in science”
(keyword: accepted)
Adam Smith (Powers of the Mind): ”A shared set of assumed facts. Water to the fish, a paradigm explains the world and allows us to predict its behavior. When in the middle of a paradigm, it is difficult to imagine any other“
(keywords: fish in water).
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

4. Definition of Paradigm (cont.)
Willis Hartman (An Incomplete Guide to the Future): "… a basic way of perceiving, thinking, valuing and doing things that are associated with a particular vision of reality”.
(keywords: particular vision)
Marilyn Ferguson (The Aquarian Conspiracy): "… a framework for thought… a scheme for understanding and explaining certain aspects of reality“
(keywords: understanding, explaining).
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

5. Definition of Paradigm (cont.)
06/12/2018
Definition of Paradigm (cont.)
Joel Barker (Discovering the Future: The Business of Paradigms): " … a set of rules that define limits, and establish what’s necessary to be succesfull within those limits".
(keywords: rules, defining behavior)
IMPORTANT:
Paradigms tend to have VERY FEW rules.
Humans have a STRONG tendency to resist letting them go.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

6. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018
The Paradigm Shift
A change in rules: old rules not only stop being useful, but they GET IN THE WAY.
Examples (in general):
Nomadism to Sedentarianism.
Geocentrism to Heliocentrism.
Creationism to Evolution.
Catastrophism to Gradualism.
Regionalism to Globalization.
Globalization to ???
Climate change.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

7. The paradigm shift(cont.)
Examples (in computing):
Structured programming.
Object oriented programming.
The WWW.
“Towers of Hanoi”
Ubiquitous computing
Waterfall to Agile (Software Engineering)
Expert Systems to Machine Learning.
Trifecta: ubiquitous, cloud-supported, AI
IMPORTANT:
Paradigm shifts occur suddenly.
Their timing is VERY difficult to predict.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

8. The paradigm shift (cont.)
Change is instigated by an “outsider”.
The new college graduate, or a scientist moving from one discipline to another:
Unfamiliar with the established paradigm.
Not “vested” in the old paradigm.
Example: ”If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done it. The literature is full of examples that show that this cannot be done" -- (Spencer Silver of 3M, inventor of Post-it notes).
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

9. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis
The mortal disease of certainty.
Paradigms act as physiological filters; a colored filter before the eyes.
The rules for the new paradigm are often completely INVISIBLE to those still subscribing to the old paradigm.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

10. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis
Example: In the late 1930’s, Chester Carlson showed Kodak, IBM and 41 other companies his new “photographic system”:
a steel plate, some black powder, a piece of cat fur, a piece of amber, some wax paper, and an iron.
Only the Halloid Corporation adopted the new system (they later became ???)
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

11. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis
Example: Who invented the quartz clock?
The swiss!
Characteristics of paradigm blindness:
”That’s not the way we do it".
”It is not going to work".
”That’s impossible".
”If you had my years of experience, you would know you are wrong“
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

12. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis
Example:
A personal computer for the year 2004:
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

13. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

14. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis
Examples . . .
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

15. Some Future Perspectives
Carl Sagan (astronomer),1970:
This human generation is unique:
In its youth, the stars were a mystery.
In its old age, it is witness to humanity’s first off-planet exploratory steps.
Manuel Bermúdez (witch doctor), 2018:
This human generation is UNIQUE:
It’s the last one that will remember what the world was like before it was CONNECTED.
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

16. Some Future Perspectives
~1975, Bill Gates made a bet: $/CPU-cycle  0.
What can you bet on today ?
The ratio: NBTS/$  
Moore’s Law ?
Web Services: computing as a utility
Impact of Robotics: social displacement, warfare, economics, transportation
Nanotech, Nanomed
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

17. Some Future Perspectives
Consequences (among many others):
More opportunities than ever, to position oneself favorably (Hint: go to graduate school NOW).
Eventually, “friction-free capitalism" (Bill Gates)
Availability of perfect market information, in real time.
Paradigm shift: manufacturing responding to market, rather than trying to anticipate it (Dell).
The factory of the future: one man, one dog . . .
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

18. Some Future Perspectives
Harlan Mills, 1995:
Software engineering is now 50 years old.
At age 50, civil engineering had not yet developed the right-angle triangle.
Bermúdez, 2018:
We marvel at the empiricism of the Egyptians and Maya as they built their pyramids.
In the year 7000, will they marvel at us ?
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

19. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018
Conclusions
This is a GREAT time to be involved in the area of computing. Few (if any) other disciplines show as much dynamism as CS/CE does.
The same characteristics that make this such a dynamic profession, also make us vulnerable to paradigm shifts.
Many people will be left behind.
A short story ...
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

20. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018
Conclusions
Thank you !
Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018