1. Decision Making Skills
Achala Dahal/Nabin Chapagain

2. Outlines Decision and decision making Approaches to decision making
Tools of decision making
Barrier to effective decision making

3. Forethought
Some are easy like…
Some are difficult like…

5. A decision

6. How a decision matter ?

7. How a decision matter ?
Cable Car
Rope way

8. “A Decision is a Judgment.”
Peter Drucker
INTUITION (Gut Feeling – past experience and personal values)
REASONING/JUDGEMENT (Facts and Figures)

9. Decision making
Combination of mental, physical and behavioral processes related to:
Rationale
Resources
Results
Resolution

12. Decision Making
Decision making is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among the alternatives, and enabling to act for producing desired results.
Decision making is a series of logical steps to reach at the agreement for moving forward.
Systematic response to a problem situation or forward moving through intelligence, understanding, analysis, rational logical selection, preparedness for implementation.

13. Lord Krishna introspects the basis on which we make our decisions.mp4
..\Decision making for APF\APF\Krishna Seekh - Impact of decision making in our lives.mp4

14. Decision making- essence of managerial function

15. Decisions in Planning What are the organization’s long term goals?
What strategies best achieve these objectives?
What should the organization’s short term objectives be?
How difficult should individual goals be?

16. Decisions in Organizing
How many employees should I have report directly to me?
How much centralization should there be in the organization?
How should jobs be designed?
When should the organization implement a different structure?

17. Decisions in Leading
How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation?
What is the most effective leadership style in a given situation?
How will a specific change affect worker productivity?
When is the right time to stimulate conflict?

18. Decisions in Controlling
What activities in the organization need to be controlled?
How should those activities be controlled?
When is a performance deviation significant?
What type of management information system should the organization have?

19. Exercise – Assessment – Test Yourself

20. Scoring Key:
The most desirable response earns 4 points, the least desirable 1 point.
Give yourself 4 points for ‘Yes’ responses, and 1 point for ‘No’ responses to items 4,9 and 11.
Give yourself 4 points for ‘No’ responses, and 1 point for ‘Yes’ responses to items 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10 and 12.

21. Result
A score ranging from 41 to 48 is ‘above average’ to ‘’excellent’ and suggests a strong capacity for decision making.
A score ranging from 30 to 40 is ‘average’,
A score of 29 or lower is ‘below average’.

22. What leads to effective decision-making ?
 Adequate Training: Do I have the necessary training to assume the increased risk level and resolve the situation? Am I physically and mentally capable?
Level of Experience: Do I possess the experience necessary to address the problem, or do I need to call for a supervisor?
Proper Equipment: Do you have the proper equipment for risk level involved? 
Gut Feeling: What does your gut feeling tell you? You have a sixth sense that the decision you’re about to make is not a well-thought as you would like.

23. Decision making is also deciding on Values
Everybody has their own unique set of values: what they believe to be important. The decisions that you make will, ultimately, be based on your values. That means that the decision that is right for you may not be right for someone else.

24. Ethical Decision Making
E:\Presentation at NASC\Decision Making\Ethical Dilemma_(360p).mp4

25. Ethical Framework for Decision Making
Five Sources of Ethical Standards for Decision Making
The Utilitarian Approach
The ethical action is the one that will produce the greatest balance of benefits over harms.
The Rights Approach The ethical action is the one that most dutifully respects the rights of all affected.
The Fairness or Justice Approach The ethical action is the one that treats people equally, or if unequally, that treats people proportionately and fairly.
The Common Good Approach The ethical action is the one that contributes most to the achievement of a quality common life together.
Virtue Approach
The ethical action is the one that embodies the habits and values of humans at their best.

26. The utilitarian approach
Which option will produce the most good and do the least harm?
The rights approach
Which option best respects the rights of all stakeholders?
The fairness or justice approach
Which option treats people equally or proportionately?
The common good approach
Which option best serves the community as a whole, not just some members?
The virtue approach
Which option leads me to act as the sort of person I want to be?

27. Why decision matters ? What factors influences decision ?
Cognitive and personal biases
Emotional bias
Skills and competencies
Situational factors
Instrumental factors
Powers
Political
Legal, Social, Technological
Administrative
Muscle, Money…

28. Decision making tools Problem Restatement technique
SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spolier analysis
Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort
Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique
Cause and effect
Cost benefit analysis
Six thinking Hat
 Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools
50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools
51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools
52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity
53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:
54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools
55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

29. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

30. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

31. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

32. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making meta - cognition

33. Modes of thinking - Let’s work on Group
Divide the participants into six groups
Each group have 20 minutes for group discussion
The discussion issue – “ The increasing rate of Officials not returning to service from higher education, training, visit etc.”
As a member of the organisation how would you deal with the problem to derive viable solution.
One participant from each group will present their group’s idea (s)(5 minutes for each participants)
Decide on the solution (5 minutes)

34. Summary No hat work on isolation.
In decision making context, each hat needs to be assessed and considered.

35. Benefits of Six Thinking Hats’ Method
Create awareness that there are multiple perspectives on the issue at hand
Convenient mechanism for “switching gears”
Rules for the game of thinking
Lead to more creative thinking
Improve communication
Improve decision making

36. Approaches to decision making
Rational decision making process
A psychological perspective
Social pressure affecting our decision

37. Rational Decision Making
Issue or problem: agenda setting
Analysis of issue or problem: Interpretation, identification and understanding
SWOT ANALYSIS
PEST ANALYSIS
STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
SPOILER ANALYSIS
Designing alternatives
Examination/assessment of alternatives
Pre-decision phase
Problem Setting :
Separate fact from opinion and speculation
Avoid stating the problem as disguised solution
State the problem explicitly
Specify underlying causes
Identify what standard is violated by the problem

38. Re-decision phase Decision phase Post-decision phase
Ranking the alternatives
Determination
Choice
Preparedness for implementation
Action plan
Monitoring
Feedback
Evaluation
Re-decision phase
Acknowledging the lessons learnt
Reformed/improved decision making

39. A psychological perspective
“Man is not a rational animal; he is a rationalizing animal”. Robert A Heinlein
None of us has infinite resources or time to devote to gathering and analysing information in order to support our decisions. In addition, there are limitations to the amount of complexity we can cope with.
In order to do this, and to help make decision making easier, we each work with a set of often unconscious ‘rules of thumb’ to guide us.

40. Six commonly held sources of bias which can hamper our decision making:
Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for and interpret information consistent with our existing beliefs
Availability bias – the tendency to overestimate the importance of something we can remember easily
Hindsight bias – the tendency to see past events as being more predictable than they were before the event occurred.

41. Anchoring effect –the tendency to over- emphasize or over-rely on a single piece of evidence
Framing effect –the tendency to draw different conclusions from the same information presented in different ways, e.g. a food is ‘85% fat free’ or ‘contains 15% fat’
Meta-cognitive bias –the tendency to believe that while others may suffer from bias, we are immune from it

42. Social pressure affecting our decision
Unfortunately, both the rational and psychological perspectives on decision making tend to ignore the social context in which each of us lives and works.
There are three kinds of social pressure which affect how we make decisions:
Coercion refers to the social sanctions that can be applied if we do not act in socially legitimate ways. The law is one source of coercive pressure, but so too for example, is the knowledge that you will get promoted only if you act in ways which fit accepted ways of doing things in your organisation.
While there are many definitions of organisational culture, Terrence Deal and Allan Kennedy in Corporate cultures: the rites and rituals of corporate life, proposed that culture is quite simply “the way we do things around here” (1982). An organisation’s culture can impact our decision making in so far as we may often seek to make decisions which align with what we perceive to be the way things are typically done. For example, it may be generally accepted within an organisation that individuals at a certain level should not make decisions beyond certain limits without first engaging the support of someone more senior. While formal checks and balances can be in place to ensure that this is the case, the pressures to conform with this can also be wholly unspoken.
In this section we have seen that we are not simply rational decision-making machines, but rather are influenced in our decision making by a range of psychological and social elements.
We are all driven to varying extents by the need for social legitimacy and the demands of groups of which we are members. Paying attention to these social contexts and pressures can help us understand our own approach to decision making and the limitations which we may encounter.

43. Imitation refers to the pressures to copy what others do
Imitation refers to the pressures to copy what others do. The world is complicated and finding the best-possible solution is often difficult. One way of dealing with this complexity is to copy others, in particular observing what ‘successful’ others do or have done: for example, a person who we respect or a person we wish to emulate.
Conformity refers to pressures linked to what we think we ‘should’ do. They concern our values and the broader social values to which we subscribe.
A key driver of social pressures can be the culture of an organisation

44. Six Cs of Decision making
Construct: A clear picture of precisely what must be decided
Compile: A list of requirements that must be met
Collect: Information on alternatives that meet the requirements
Compare: Alternatives that meet the requirements
Consider: The “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative
Commit: To a decision and follow through with it.

45. Personal trap in decision making
Not willing to come out of comfort zone
Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis
Getting lost in minutia
Seeking unanimous approval
Willing to decide beyond authority

46. System trap in decision making
Too little, inaccurate or wrong information
Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects
Not following the six Cs
Failure to clearly define the expected results
Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

47. “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”
System thinking is crucial
“Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”

48. “Oops!”

49. Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation
Teams and Network
Technicalities
Indecisiveness and Decline
Diversity
Risk propensity

51. “WE SELDOM HAVE TIME FOR THE IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING
ON THE IMMEDIATE
AND THE IMMEDIATE IS
SELDOM THE IMPORTANT”
- Peter Drucker

52. Everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on pencils
Don’t be afraid to take decisions
Be afraid to make decisions
Everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on pencils

53. “Think Laterally, and be creative.”