1. The prospect for diesel and the likely real-world impact of RDE and WLTP: how effective will they be?
Aidan Revie
9 November 2017

2. The context Air quality is illegally high in many places
Diesel engines are blamed
The solution must be delivered fast, whatever the cost
Confidence in official data is low
Trust in manufacturers is low especially since #dieselgate
Electrification, if it happens, cannot solve the problem quickly enough
Cities are now taking unilateral action
Consumer confusion is increasing
This is a market and environmental problem

3. EMISSIONS ANALYTICS’ PROGRAMME

4. Emissions Analytics’ credentials
Founded in 2011
Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
1500+ vehicles tested
Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media

5. Equipment SEMTECH-DS and -LDV
Portable Emissions Measurement System connects to tailpipe
Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2, total hydrocarbons
At 1 Hertz
Air temperature, pressure, humidity
GPS for speed and altitude
Engine data via CANBUS
Fuel economy derived via carbon balance
Weight addition 100kg

6. Emissions Analytics concept
Similar to RDE…
Real roads
Realistic routes
Normal driving styles
But crucially different…
Vehicles sourced independently
Independent drivers
Standardised test

8. PROSPECTS FOR RDE AND NOx

9. The legacy NOx problem… bad news
Average EF now ~7
Rising since 2015, back almost to Euro 5 peaks
Despite prospect of Real Driving Emissions
Growing variability
Use of thermal management and hot re-start strategies?
Beating first phase of RDE in 2017?

10. …worse news…
Dirtiest Euro 6 diesels are 6-7 times worse than cleanest Euro 5
And are ~3 times worse than cleanest Euro 3/4
And are about twice as dirty as the average Euro 3/4

11. But good news… diesels can be clean
Average Euro 6 diesel 13 times average gasoline car
But cleanest diesels (5% percentile) are as clean as the average gasoline
Has been the case for almost 2 years
Not being able to discriminate within Euro 6 is significant market failure

12. Challenges for RDE
Technically sophisticated regulation, with potential for strong in-use surveillance; but…
1.5 Conformity Factor only applies to all cars from January 2021
Equivalent US regulation has been 31 mg/km for a decade
Not independently conducted
Boundary conditions could potentially be gamed
Conflicts results from normalisation tools
Complex interaction between WLTC and RDE within EMROAD tool
RDE will not apply retrospectively
“Euro 6” as a label is fundamentally compromised
54% of higher polluting Euro 6s need to be restricted to generate 87% reduction in NOx

13. Policy opportunity Incentivise off road as soon as possible
Main issue is speed
Policy opportunity:
Remove all pre-Euro 5 diesels
Discriminate with Euro 5 and Euro 6
Incentivise going beyond regulatory minimum
Accelerate fleet turnover
Incentivise off road as soon as possible

14. PROSPECTS FOR WLTP AND CO2

15. Growing fuel consumption gap
Worse real-world fuel consumption in 2016 for both diesel and gasoline
Diesel 25% more efficient than gasoline, despite direct injection penetration
32%
40%

16. Will WLTC help? WLTC not so different from NEDC
New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
World Light Duty Transient Cycle (WLTC)
Emissions Analytics
Measurements
MPG, CO2, CO, NOx
MPG, CO2, CO, NOx, NO, NO2
Cycle
Defined speed trace
Defined route
Test location
Laboratory
On road with PEMS
Conduct
By OEM
Independent
Normalisation
None
Based on dynamic characteristics
Average speed (mph) 21 29 28
Average acceleration (mph/s)
1.1
1.0
1.5
Average gradient (m/s)
0.0
0.8
WLTC not so different from NEDC
High speed could lead lower CO2
Offset by more acceleration/ deceleration
Small net effect
Uncertain effect of closing loopholes
Best case – still 20% CO2 gap?

17. PRACTICAL SOLUTION

18. EQUA Index
Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy
Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations
Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail
Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at
Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard
Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP)
Authoritative advisory board
Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements

19. EQUA Aq

20. EQUA CO2 “A1” to “H5” A to H for absolute emissions
1 to 5 for proximity to official – “honesty”
39% average CO2 excess – 189 g/km
16% higher emissions from petrol compared to diesel
1.5 litre engines better than most highly down-sized
litre engines most honest

21. EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100
MPG values for almost all vehicles on sale in last five years
Over 70,000 model variants
Remainder extrapolated using new proprietary model of real-world MPG, based on technical characteristics of vehicles
Comprehensive alternative to official system

22. FUTURE PROSPECTS

23. Four commercial factors
Fuel efficiency
Depreciation
In-use CO2
NOx, CO
Diesel
Gasoline
Gasoline HEV
PHEV – short trip
PHEV – long trip EV
Position threatened unless low NOx can be proven
Market as unsubsidised, profitable product not yet established

24. Advance of gasoline HEVs
HEVs historically had urban MPG advantage
May overtake diesel in motorway driving this year
Further advanced in US
Even now, has emits less CO2 than like-for-like diesel

25. Aidan Revie, Business Development Director aidan@emissionsanalytics
Aidan Revie, Business Development Director +44 (0) (0)