1. Today’s Lecture #23 Social Security
Can We Afford to Keep This Promise?
2007 Trustees Report
Actuarial Assumptions
Financial Projections

2. Definitions OASI Old Age and Survivors’ Insurance (Pensions)
DI Disability Insurance
HI Hospital Insurance (Medicare Part A)

3. Beneficiaries
OASI million
DI million
HI million

4. 2006 Experience (figures in billions of $)
OASI DI HI
Income
642.2
102.6
211.5
Outgo
461
94.5
191.9
Ending Assets
1844.3
203.8
305.4

5. Actuarial Projections - OASDI
Projections are based on economic and demographic assumptions
Low Cost Assumptions (I)
Intermediate Cost Assumptions (II)
High Cost Assumptions (III)

6. Social Security Administration Web Site
Or use the hyperlink on the Fin 230 Website

7. Figures from Social Security Website OASDI Trustees Report – Summary
Chart A – OASI, DI, and HI Trust Fund Ratios – Summary
Chart B – SS and Medicare Cost as a Percentage of GDP
Chart C – Income and Cost Rates

8. Chart A – OASI, DI, and HI Trust Fund Ratios [Assets as a percentage of annual expenditures]

9. Chart B – Social Security and Medicare Cost as a Percentage of GDP
                                                                       

10. Chart C – Income and Cost Rates [Percentage of taxable payroll]
                                                                       

11. Figure IV.B2.-Number of OASDI Beneficiaries Per 100 Covered Workers
                                                                       
                                                                       

12. Social Security’s Impending Bankruptcy
Based on Intermediate Cost Assumptions
Medicare (HI)
OASDI

13. Analysis of Actuarial Assumptions – Mortality Life Expectancy at Birth
Year Male Female
2004 (Est.)
2005 (Est.)
2006 (Est.)

14. Your Actuarial Forecast Life Expectancy at Birth
Year Male Female
2085

15. SSA Actuarial Assumptions – 2007 Life Expectancy at Birth
Year Male Female
I II III I II III
2085

16. [As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Figure IV.B1.-Long-Range OASI and DI Annual Income Rates and Cost Rates
[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
                                                                       

17. [Assets as a percentage of annual cost]
Figure II.D7.-Long-Range OASDI Trust Fund Ratios Under Alternative Assumptions
[Assets as a percentage of annual cost]

18. Tables from Social Security Website
Table II.C1.-- Ultimate Demographic and Economic Assumptions
Table V.A1.-- Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years,  
Table V.B1 -- Principal Economic Assumptions