1. Supporting People Spend Plan Data Emerging Trends Welsh Government 1

2. Data based on Spend Plans.
High level observations not a rigorous analysis.
First five slides cover trends.
Second part of the presentation looks at the unit costs for a small number of services.

3. Wales Fixed Spend over 3 Years (does not include alarms)
Chart Excludes Alarms
The blue line shows that Wales fixed site spend increased slightly in Year 2, before decreasing rapidly in Year 3.
By comparison:
LA 4’s fixed site spend dropped 6% in Year 2, and a further 34% in Year 3.
LA 8’s fixed site spend increased by 13% in Year 2, before decreasing in Year 3, but across the 3 years shows an increase.
LA 10’s fixed site spend increased steadily over the 3 year period.

4. Wales Fixed Units over 3 Years (does not include alarms)
Chart Excludes Alarms
The blue line shows that Wales fixed site unit numbers increased slightly in Year 2, before decreasing slightly (7%) in Year 3.
By comparison:
LA 4’s fixed site unit numbers dropped 10% in Year 2, and a further 5% in Year 3.
LA 8’s fixed site unit numbers increased by 19% in Year 2, remaining static in Year 3.
LA 10’s fixed site unit numbers increased by 1% in Year 2, before dropping 28% in Year 3.

5. Wales Floating Spend over 3 Years (does not include alarms)
Chart Excludes Alarms
The blue line shows that Wales floating spend dropped by 6% in Year 2, then increased by 5% in Year 3.
By comparison:
LA 3’s floating spend dropped 8% in Year 2, then increased by 12% in Year 3.
LA 8’s floating spend dropped by 18% in Year 2, and a further 16% in Year 3.
LA 13’s floating spend increased by 25% in Year 2 and a further 30% in Year 3.

6. Wales Floating Units over 3 Years (does not include alarms)
Chart Excludes Alarms
The blue line shows that Wales floating unit numbers decrease by 4% in Year 2 before increasing 6% in Year 3.
By comparison:
LA 3’s floating units dropped 48% in Year 2, and a further 17% in Year 3.
LA 8’s floating units increased 14% in Year 2, then decreased 27% in Year 3.
LA 13’s floating units decreased 14% in Year 2 and then increased 123% in Year 3.

7. Fixed & Floating Support over 3 Years (does not include alarms)
Excludes Alarms
All Wales, fixed vs floating support over 3 years
Quite static figures however floating support has increased slightly over the 3 years by 216 units, whilst fixed site support has decreased by 1324 units.

8. Learning Disabilities –
Fixed Site Unit Cost 2013/14

9. Learning Disabilities –
Fixed Site Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Where support is provided, fixed site units for LD have a large variance in cost, from £23,360 (LA 2) down to £7,133 (LA 20). No fixed site support is provided by LA’s 4 or 7.
The average unit price across Wales for fixed site LD support is £12,378 (2015/16).
Changes from
LD fixed site unit costs have decreased by an average of 16% across Wales since 2013/14.
LA 18 is an exception to this rule – their fixed site unit cost has increased by 8%.
LA’s 20 and 21 have kept their fixed site unit cost static.
LA 4 has moved all their LD support into floating. You can see on the chart above that fixed site support is not provided. In 2013/14 their cost per unit for this support was £20,157 and fixed site support made up 68% of their LD support provision.

10. Learning Disabilities – Floating Support Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Where support is provided, floating support units for LD have a large variance in cost, from £18,879 (LA 7) down to £2,162 (LA 17). No floating support is provided in LA’s 3, 9, 13, 16 or 22.
The average unit price across Wales for floating LD support is £7,770
Changes from
LD floating support unit costs have decreased by an average of 3% across Wales since 2013/14.
LA’s 10 and 11 now provide floating support, where they did not in 2013/14.
LA 20 has kept their floating support unit costs static.
LA 4 has seen a 398% increase in its cost per unit of LD floating support, from £3,574 to £17,805, in line with its move away from fixed site support. This means that whilst it has seen a huge increase in the cost per unit for floating support, their overall spend on LD has dropped, as have unit numbers.

11. Young People – Fixed Site Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Where support is provided, fixed site units for YP have a large variance in cost, from £21,079 (LA 14) down to £7,372 (LA 3).
The average unit price across all LA’s for fixed site YP support is £13,212.
Changes from
Fixed site unit costs have decreased by an average of 9% across Wales since 2013/14.
There appears to be an even mix across LA’s with 12 cutting the unit cost for fixed site support, 7 increasing unit costs, 2 remaining static and 1 LA (LA 7) not providing any fixed site support for Young People.

12. Young People – Floating Support Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Where support is provided, floating support units for YP have a large variance in cost, from £8,774 (Gwynedd) down to £1,765 (Flintshire).
The average unit price across all LA’s (where support provided) for floating YP support is £5,024.
Changes from
Floating support unit costs have decreased by an average of 12% across Wales since 2013/14.
There appears to be an even mix across LA’s with 12 cutting the unit cost for fixed site support, 8 increasing unit costs and 2 (LA 8 and 10) removing all floating support for YP.

13. People aged 25-54 – Fixed Site Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Fixed site support for Single People aged with Support Needs is only provided by the 8 LA’s shown above. Fixed site units for Single People aged have a large variance in cost, from £29,785 (LA 4) down to £7,914 (LA 10). The average unit price across Wales for fixed site support is £15,161 (2015/16).
Changes from
Fixed site unit costs have decreased by an average of 3% across Wales since 2013/14.
LA’s 10 and 17 are exceptions to the decreasing cost rule – but whilst individual unit cost is increasing, the number of units is decreasing bringing spend down. This could suggest a more intensive service is being provided.
LA 21 now provides fixed site support for this client category where it didn’t in 2013/14.
All the other LA’s shown have decreased the cost per unit for this client category.

14. People aged 25-54 – Floating Support Unit Cost 2015/16
Chart above
Floating support for Single People aged with Support Needs is only provided by the 6 LA’s shown above. Floating support for Single People aged varies in cost, from £6,582 (LA 1) down to £1,959 (LA 16). The average unit price across Wales for floating support is £4,317 (2015/16).
Changes from
Floating support unit costs have decreased by an average of 35% across Wales since 2013/14.
LA 21 now provides floating support for this client category where it didn’t in 2013/14.
All the other LA’s shown have decreased the cost per unit for this client category.

15. Outcome Information
This chart shows the number of outcomes collected over the last 6 periods (3 years). It shows a steady increase in the number of outcomes, but also, for the last 2 collection periods, it shows additonal people supported. These are people who are being supported but either haven't had a review in the 6 month period or (for whatever reason) do not have support plan in place.

16. Initial conclusions and further questions
In spite of budget reductions we are seeing ‘some’ rebalance towards preventative type services.
There is emerging evidence of scrutiny of spend and service provision.
To what extent is this consistent across Wales?
To what extent are services configured to meet the needs of the population of Wales?
How can stakeholders use Spend Plan information to ensure we target resources toward need?