1. Clim2Power Climate impacts in the power sector in Europe
Past Events and Analysis of Future Impacts

2. Past Events

3. Heat wave summer 2003
Meteorological reports cast summer of 2003 as France’s hottest in 50 years – Tmax >2ºC than those of the three prior recordholders (1976 with Tmax 27.1ºC, ºC, 1994 with 26.3ºC) and the lowest observed temperature (16.5ºC) was 3.5ºC hotter than the average lowest daily temperatures
Heightened energy demand and unfavourable environmental operating conditions (rivers too hot and water levels too low to assure cooling)
Led EdF in August 2003 to request temporary exemption of agreed operating parameters for one-third of the French nuclear park (16 reactors out of 58)
Nuclear power stations had to operate at a much reduced capacity, and EdF cut its power exports more than half
French safety authority ASN (2004) considers that climatic situation could be repeated and recommended augmenting ventilation, installing air conditioning, and creation of monitoring and alert systems
Fonte: ECEM_CS001_Winter2010a_v8_FINAL
In Spain the cumulative electricity demand in August peaked nearly to 13% above the values for the previous year
Poumadère et al.(2005). The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now. Risk Analysis (25)6.
Añel et al (2017). Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector. Atmosphere (8)

4. Cold Winter 2009/2010
Fonte: ECEM_CS001_Winter2010a_v8_FINAL
Daily fluctuations in modelled weather-sensitive electricity demand. Normalised anomalies expressed as difference in percentage from the long-term average ( ). Demand up to 25% higher due to cold weather.
Temperature anomaly (ºC -differences from mean) across Europe for winter 2009/10 – up to less 7ºC in Scandinavia

5. Cold wave in Europe in Winter (Dec) 2016 & 2017
Large increase in electricity demand due to cold & lower than usual hydro and wind power
Under national regulation authority request EdF had to stop several nuclear reactors to check components
The total available generation capacity in France was significantly decreased.
Electricity demand & power generation forecasts were then very important to assess the risks (FR and EU)
France and Germany - EDF and EnBW
Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project -

6. High pressure system over central Europe in Summer (July) 2013
Large electricity demand & higher than usual solar PV with lower precipitation
Periods of high solar radiation in DE may shift the energy mix and expensive conventional power plants may be shut down - with coal power plants typically used as a backup
Downturn in the energy trading market
Coal supply largely based on river navigability (associated with precipitation) - very low precipitation may restrict transportation on major waterways
Germany - EnBW
Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project -

7. Flood in Sweden in Spring (June/July) 2015
Combined snowmelt and rain caused a lot of unproductive release of reservoir water in Umeälven river, Sweden
Reservoir not managed appropriately – did not release enough water earlier – due to inaccurate hydrological forecasts that predicted a lot of remaining snow for melting
In the first weeks of July, the melting runoff stopped due to low temperatures. However, there was still some snow available which flowed to the reservoir later
The lack of accurate information about snow availability resulted in a significant economic loss for hydropower generators
Sweden - Vattenfal
Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project -

8. Below normal wind power generation in 2016
Increase of the frequency of occurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) weather regime with negative impact on wind speed on southern + central EU
Concurrently to the decrease of the frequency of the Atlantic ridge regime leading to a positive impact on wind speed + frequency of the other two regimes (NAO- and blocking) didn't deviate from the climatology value.
Notable decrease of wind speed was observed through all central and southern Europe
Such events can have a significant impact on the energy market
Spain - EDPR and NNERGIX
Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project -

9. Other past events Past events Where Impact Companies
Heat wave 2015, and other similar extremes
Southern Europe
Demand and thermal power plant cooling
ENEL, ENEA
Dry Winter and other similar extremes
Northern Italy
Hydroelectric power production
ENEL, ENEA Alperia
Extreme Winds and other similar extremes
Spain
Wind power production and balancing
AWST, ENEL
Strong Winds March 2016 and other similar extremes
Southern Italy
Wind power production
Low Winds
North Sea
 Offshore operations
TenneT
Anomalous winter conditions UK
Winter electricity demand
National Grid
Severe climate events in early fall and late spring months
Offshore operations and maintenance planning
Shell
H2020 SECLI-firm project identified case studies -

10. Analysis of Future Impacts

11. Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C
Power sector fundamental for limiting climate warming below 2°C, or even 1.5°C - must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century BUT Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Study assesses the impacts of climate change on wind, solar PV, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C (2043, 2059, 2084)
. RESULTS
climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies (limited for a 1.5°C warming, and roughly double for a 3°C warming.)
Impacts are
relatively limited for solar PV and wind power potential that may reduce up to 10%,
hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%.
Impacts are more severe in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries.
higher share of RES could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change (intermittency of wind and PV remain a big challenge)
Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13)

12. Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C.
Power generation change (%)
In 2043, 2059, 2084 from for the 3 climate scenarios
Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13)

13. Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C.
Power generation change (%)
Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13)

14. Impacts of climate change and variability in Europe
Increased ambient air temperatures will decrease the efficiency of thermal generating plants and reduce thermal electricity generation across Europe ( ).
Higher precipitation will be favourable to hydroelectricity generation in Northern Europe, but decreasing precipitation will reduce hydroelectricity generation in Southern Europe
Systematic literature review of 57 papers (published 1997 to 2015), which consider the following criteria:
with European coverage (as defined by the United Nations Statistics Division);
(2) in peer-reviewed journals;
(3) in English; and
(4) focusing on the impacts of CV&C on electricity generation and networks in the near-, medium- and long-term (no reviews)
Stanton et al (2016). A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change
on electricity systems in Europe. Energy (109).

15. Impact on power demand
Assess climate change impacts on electricity demand until “Future polarization of both peak load and electricity consumption in Europe”. Expected significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼−6 to ∼−2% for Sweden and Norway) plus a shift of seasonal peak load from winter to summer for 19 countries
Wenz et al (2017). North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming. PNAS (Aug).

16. The future of transnational river basins in Iberia
decreases in monthly, seasonal and annual discharges for all basins; especially for medium and low river flow, with all but one run showing future decreases. Magnitude of decreases varies significantly for different CMIP5 ensemble members.
autumn shows the biggest decreases (reaching −61% for the Douro, −71% in the Tagus, and −92% for the Guadiana); reductions are consistently larger for the Guadiana.
despite uncertainties in model projections, there is common behaviour with reductions in mean and especially in low discharges which will have important implications for water resources, populations, ecology and agriculture
Method 1
Method 2
Guerreiro et al (2017). Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (12)

17. More information Academic publications
IEA - Making the energy sector more resilient to climate change
World Energy Council - Climate Change: Implications for the Energy Sector
Asian Development Bank Climate Risk and Adaptation for the Electric Power Sector
Academic publications
Susceptibility of the European electricity sector to climate change
Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change.
The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

18. More on CLIM2POWER: https://clim2power.com/ sgcs@fct.unl.pt
Project CLIM2POWER is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), BMWFW (AT), FCT (PT), EPA (IE), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant ).