1. Market Timing

2. Alan Greenspan

3. “If the facts change, I will change.” - Alan Greenspan

4. Myths and Facts

5. “It’s Not Always About What It’s About!”

6. Myth #1: You Can’t Time the Market
Who started this rumor?
Mutual Funds and Money Managers.
Why would they do this?
So you will pay them.
What do they do?
Make buy and sell decisions…and every buy or sell decision is timing the market!

7. The Fact…
Most people believe “timing the market” means buying perfectly at the bottom and selling perfectly at the top.
In reality it’s all about lowering risk by scaling in or out of trending markets and lowering portfolio volatility!
TIMING IS NOT ABOUT GETTING IT PERFECTLY RIGHT ALL THE TIME. IT’S ABOUT GETTING IT “MOSTLY RIGHT MOST OF THE TIME!”

8. Myth #2: If I miss only a handful of positive days in the market my investment returns will plummet.
Why does this myth exist?
to keep you invested in buy-and-hold strategies
The evidence sited…..
The Bull Market from Jan 1984 through Dec 1998 S&P buy-and-hold return was 17.89% annually.
Over this period, only a handful of trading days accounted for most of the market’s movement.

9. What you’ve probably heard before…
If you missed the best days in the market, your average return dropped from 17.89% to….
# Of Trading Days Missed
Best
10 Days
14.24%
20 Days
11.99%
30 Days
10.01%
40 Days
8.23%
Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP®

10. What you’ve probably NOT heard before…
Missing the worst days would have made a bigger impact:
# Of Trading Days Missed
Best
Worst
10 Days
14.24%
24.17%
20 Days
11.99%
27.04%
30 Days
10.01%
29.45%
40 Days
8.23%
31.66%
Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP®

11. # Of Trading Days Missed
Missing the best and worst days beat the market buy-and-hold 17.89% average annual return:
# Of Trading Days Missed
Best
Worst
Both
10 Days
14.24%
24.17%
20.31%
20 Days
11.99%
24.04%
20.68%
30 Days
10.01%
29.45%
20.80%
40 Days
8.23%
31.66%
20.87%
Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP®

12. RISK MANAGEMENT MATTERS!
Fact
Investment returns are enhanced by
lower volatility and overall trend capture.
RISK MANAGEMENT MATTERS!

13. Historical Trends: Secular Bear

14. Secular Bear Market Opportunities

15. No strategy can guarantee profit or protect against a loss.
Past performance is not indicative
of future results.

16. BigFoot Investments (a DBA of Lee Johnson Capital Management) does not promise, guarantee or imply that you will improve your operation, or increase your revenues. As with any business, earnings potential and successful or unsuccessful use of BigFoot Investments’ products and materials will widely vary among our customers depending on many factors, including but not limited to, the customer’s finances, knowledge and skill set, creativity, motivation, level of effort, individual expertise and as such we do not guarantee your success or income level. The information conveyed by BigFoot Investments, as well as the information otherwise conveyed in these materials is intended to provide you with basic instruction regarding your business or operation. BigFoot Investments does not guarantee any results or returns based on the information you receive. Past performance or examples of other’s performance is no indication or guarantee of your anticipated future results, and individual results may vary. We are not responsible for any success or failure of your business if you implement the information you receive from us. We provide a tool that you can use to try to improve the operations of your business. All information contained or received through the use of our materials is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. We hereby disclaim all warranties with regard to the information contained in our materials including without limitation all expenses, statutory and implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.