1. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Fire and rescue response time fatality rate relationships: IRS based updates and new FSEC modelling routines Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117 Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk

2. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Aims Replace fire & rescue fatality rate relationships with regressions using latest IRS data Model non fatal casualties Align FSEC & IRS special service categories Improve time of day modelling IRS date supplied for 31/3/ 2009 to 30/09/2011

3. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Screening of special services Fatality rate Response time relationship Total number of cases

4. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 RTCs Effecting entry to medical cases

5. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Other transport Also checked sub categories for other types of special services

6. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Alignment of new to current FSEC special service categories Current FSEC category Proposal Special service IDs Road Traffic CollisionRetain1 and 6 Extrications Redefine as Other Rescue 60, 61, 62, 63, 67 Other Special Services Redefine as Other Transport rescues 10 and 15 Lift releaseDelete- Lock in /lock outDelete- Rescue from heightReplace with Suicide270 and 271 Line rescue Replace with co and first responder 282 and 283 HAZCHEMDelete- Rescue from waterRetain30, 31 and 32

7. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Evidence of relationship with serious casualties and deaths Revised response time relationships (RTCs)

8. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Impact of second response time (RTCs) Tend to show increased fatality rate as second response gets longer

9. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Second appliance & serious casualty models Second response time No –Water Rescues, Suicides –Other Transport Incidents –Medical Incidents Yes –RTC –Other Rescue Serious injury model No –Suicides, Water, Other Transport Yes –RTC –Medical –Other Rescue

10. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Ratio of fastest to slowest response time fatality rates 5.5 times for RTCs 18.6 times for Other Transport rescues 2.5 times for Other Rescues 12 times for Water rescues 2.4 times for Medical Incidents 3.2 times for Suicides

11. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Impact on predicted deaths 22.5% more deaths than the current FSEC functions

12. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Dwellings Not much change in response time fatality relationship

13. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Dwelling serious non fatal casualties Weak relationship

14. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Dwelling 2 nd and 3 rd response times

15. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Dwelling – One vs 2+ appliance incidents Lower fatality rates if just one appliance

16. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Dwelling type fatality rates Really related to type of dwelling Developed dwelling type risk factors

17. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Can determine a relationship Building type important Other Buildings

18. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Individual & Societal Risk Model each and add together Big impact on results

19. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Time periods Enable modelling of impact of change shifts systems: Split risk by time period Allow finer modelling of shifts Flexible time period boundaries for shifts Minimal change in results Shows impact of (e.g.) removing appliance at night

20. National FSEC Toolkit Conference 2013 Conclusions Results sensitive to every second of change in response time Includes serious non fatal casualties & second appliance times where applicable Far more accurate modelling of Other Buildings More accurate special service modelling Can model impact of change in shift systems Consistent with IRS...minimal extra work for users – all optional