1. Governing in the Crisis: Public Opinion and Perceptions of Party Competence
Jane Green1 and Will Jennings2
University of Manchester
University of Southampton
Inaugural Conference of the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute July 16-18, 2012

2. Competence under the Coalition
List reasons to expect that issue competence may exhibit mood-like characteristics.
Source: British Election Study, Continuous Monitoring Survey

3. Competence under the Coalition (Labour)
List reasons to expect that issue competence may exhibit mood-like characteristics.
Source: British Election Study, Continuous Monitoring Survey

4. Competence in the 1990s Labour Conservatives
List reasons to expect that issue competence may exhibit mood-like characteristics.

5. Macro-Competence, 1950 - 2008 Labour Conservative
List reasons to expect that issue competence may exhibit mood-like characteristics.
54% variation in all issue ratings
explained by first dimension
63% variation in all issue ratings
explained by first dimension

6. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Macro-Competence and the Costs of Governing, 1950-2008
Comparable estimation provides variance explained for Lib Dems/Liberals of 64%.
All issues load very highly onto Lib Dem macro-competence (greater use of transfer/heuristics)
Start: 1950
End: 2008
N=59

7. The Mood of the Country against Seven British Governments: Macro-Competence, 1950 - 2010
Conservative
Labour
Conservative
Labour
Conservative
Labour
Coalition

8. The First Year Honeymoon of Seven British Governments: Macro-Competence, 1950 - 2010
Election
Governing Parties
Opposition Parties
1951
-1.3 (Con)
+3.6 (Lab)
1964
+1.9 (Lab)
+2.4 (Con)
1970
-0.5 (Con)
+2.6 (Lab)
1974
+0.4 (Lab)
+2.2 (Con)
1979
-1.6 (Con)
+1.2 (Lab)
1997
+2.9 (Lab)
2010
-2.7 (Con)
+3.5 (Lab)

9. ADL Model of Events on Macro-Competence (and persistence)
Another ADL.
Start 1979 Q3
End 2008 Q4
N=118 12

10. An Error Correction Model of Macro-Competence
Controlling for covariance in other measures: discuss this
This time an Error-Correction Model (ECM). ECMs are linear reparameterizations of autoregressive-distributed lag models (ADL) – so consistent with our previous model.
Our interest here is how macro-competence equilibrates in response to shocks.
Start 1979 Q3
End 2008 Q4
N=118

11. Governing in the Crisis: Public Opinion and Perceptions of Party Competence
Jane Green1 and Will Jennings2
University of Manchester
University of Souhampton
Inaugural Conference of the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute July 16-18, 2012

12. E.g. Correlations between measures

13. An Error Correction Model of Vote Intention
Controlling for covariance in other measures: discuss this
This time an Error-Correction Model (ECM). ECMs are linear reparameterizations of autoregressive-distributed lag models (ADL) – so consistent with our previous model.
Our interest here is how macro-competence equilibrates in response to shocks.
Start 1979 Q3
End 2008 Q4
N=118