1. Informative support for decision-making
- manifested in each managerial activity
- the principle is a choice from more alternatives

2. Exercise and meaning of decision-making
Reasons of intuitive decision-making
unknown principle problem
unknown ambitions and criteria
absence time
unpopularity of systematic methods
lack of necessary information
abundance

3. Models of decision-making
Rational economic model
optimization principle
Administrative model
satisfaction principle

4. Rational process of resolution of decision-making problems
Identification of a decision-making problem
Analysis and formulation
of a problem
Assessment criterions selection
Variants creation
Appreciation of variants and choice of the most suitable
Realization of acceptable variant
Controlling results of realized variant

5. Types of decision-making problems and situations
Right and wrong structured problems
Decision-making under certainty, risk and uncertainty
Static and dynamic decision-making
Decision-making with and without conflict

6. Bad structured problem
The global crisis continues, find the way to be profitable.
Find new product to our customers.
Excercise
Také a sheet of paper. Do a hole into it and go through without total destruction of the paper.

7. Excercise A B C D What price reduction can you get?
The order above CZk – reduction 5 %
Private taking – reduction 5 %
Local office – reduction 8 %
Create the communication chart A B C D

8. The final communication chart
> (5 %) N Y
Private taking (5 %)
Local office (8 %)
Price reduction %
5 %
8 %
10 %
13 %
18 %

9. Dynamic decision making process
Little Red Riding Hood
meeting with the wolf
Did he see myself? N Y N Y
Let me alone
Is it hungry? N
Does it hear me?
Let me alone N
Does it
attack me?
Let me alone Y Y N …
Do I win? …

10. Static decision making
Choose the suitable car for yourself.
This problem can be bad structured but the solution is available in one step (if you know enough criterions and variants).

11. Competitors point of view
The previous example was non-conflict.
Our solution is independent to actions other people.
Conflict decision making
What event will we visit?
We have a couple. The man want to go to hockey, the woman to the theatre.
who/what
Hockey together
Theatre together
to be at home alone He 5 3 1
She

12. Information for decision-making
Primary source
Secondary source
Provision of efficient collection of information
setting range of information
right interpretation of information

13. A membrane company needs to choose one of fairs to realize an exhibition. It doesn’t have enough money to send representatives to all three fairs.
Choose (calculate) the best option by the method of weight classification from data in the table. The criterions are ordered from the most to the less important:
Criterion
Options
O 1
O 2
O 3
C 1 – costs (€)
250
300
500
C 2 – experiences (realized fairs) 7 2 1
C 3 – distance (km)
380
120
105
C 4 – potential of market (customers)
400
750
600

14. Decision-making´s methods under certainty
One criterion
Collection of criteria
Methods of assessment scale criteria

15. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Decision-making´s matrix
Probability p1 … pi pn S1 Si Sn A1
U11
U1i
U1n AJ
Uj1
Uji
Ujn AM
Um1
Umi
Umn

16. Rules of decision-making under risk
rule of expected mean value
Ej = Uji*pi
rule of expected mean value of variance
D(z) = (zi – E(z))2*pi

17. Rules of decision-making under uncertainty
Rule of minimax
Rule of maximax
Laplace´s rule
Hurwitz´s rule
Savage´s rule

18. Selecting the best alternative
The company wants to introduce a new product. The presumptive revenues are depended on time how long will be the company in the market alone. With the rules for deciding in condition of uncertainty choose the best from the three variants.
probability of variants
0.25
0.50
price \ time to be alone in a market
1 year alone
1.5 year alone
2 years alone
low
3.2
3.3
middle
3.1
3.5
4.0
high
2.4
4.4

19. Rules 0.25 0.5 wc1 wc2 wc3 minimax maximax laplace hurwicz v1 3.2 3.3
average v1
3.2
3.3
3.27
3.26
3.275 v2
3.1
3.5 4
3.53
3.64
3.525 v3
2.4
4.4
3.43
3.6
3.45
max
loss matrix
wc1
wc2
wc3
max. loss v1
0.2
1.1 v2
0.1
0.4 v3
0.8

20. Methods for support decision-making
Decision-making´s tablets
Models
Simulation

21. Team´s resolution of problems
Bleachers of constructive thinking
conservatism
apprehensions
prejudices
Brainstorming
Method 6.3.5

22. Brainstorming - requirements
Quantity is more than quality !
No criticism
All members are equipollent
Group – heterogeneousness
age,
sex,
experiences,
knowledge …