1. Alan Robinson, Dstl ISMOR 28, Sep 2011
Reflections on SDSR and its Implications for the UK’s Future Analysis Capability
Alan Robinson, Dstl
ISMOR 28, Sep 2011
©Crown Copyright Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO

2. Structure What did we achieve in SDSR ?
What do we need to do better / differently next time ?
How do we best meet the needs identified ?
Disclaimer – my views, not (necessarily) those of Dstl or MoD
07 December 2018

3. SDSR and S&T Support Jan 2011 20 Oct 2010 CSR Work strands
Synthesis
Implementation
CSR
Policy Choices
Capability Choices
SDSR White Paper “Headlines”
20 Oct 2010
Work strands
Ideas
Jan 2011
PR11
“Detail”
Synthesising work strand ideas.
Force structure risk assessment
Advice and analysis to support work strands
Advice to mitigate risks and support implementation
07 December 2018

4. Some Keys To Success Having something useful to contribute
Fast response to evolving issues through
Quick methods
Good problem structuring approaches
Pre-prepared work (where appropriate)
Good “consultancy” skills
Persuading the right senior people to listen
Track record
Access
07 December 2018

5. Some Keys To Success Having something useful to contribute
High Impact
Having something useful to contribute
Good “consultancy” skills
Fast response to evolving issues through
Quick methods
Good problem structuring approaches
Pre-prepared work (where appropriate)
Persuading the right senior people to listen
Track record
Access
Some Impact
07 December 2018

6. Keys to Enduring Success: During SDSR
Analysis “Half full”
Analysis seen to have an important contribution to make, but not necessarily having all the “answers”
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7. Keys to Enduring Success: After SDSR
Analysis “Half empty”
Need effort to enhance capabilities ready for the next time
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8. Analysis Interventions
Messes
Problems
Puzzles
Solution(s)
Interventions
Typically, problem structuring support, soft OA, SME workshops etc 1
Typically via the production of models, methods and other repeatable approaches 2
07 December 2018

9. So, Type 1... Ongoing need is for:
Analyst
Decision-
maker
So, Type 1...
Ongoing need is for:
Enhanced senior-level traction
Continued efforts to develop track record of successful interventions
Especially, helping to turn stakeholders messes into problems (or, if possible, puzzles)
And, advertise those successes; educate those that might need analysis support
Continued development of the cadre of staff with the right intervention skills – people skills as well as analytical know-how
Lots of ongoing work, in particular under the label of Technical Consultancy
07 December 2018

10. And for Type 2... Semi-formal “gap analysis” conducted to
Consider future analysis needs, based on NSS, SDSR
Map those needs against extant capabilities
Identify key analysis shortfalls
Identify any current analysis capabilities that are no longer required
Produced as a matrix...
07 December 2018

11. Don’t dwell on the details!
Abridged extract

12. Traditional war fighting analysis is well covered although the analysis capabilities are better at tactical level than strategic level
Abridged extract

13. Cyber is a newly emerging analysis area, and a key future requirement
Abridged extract

14. Areas with human factors/decision making are less well developed although improvements are being made
Abridged extract

15. C4ISTAR is an area with reasonable ability to analyse individual capabilities but it is harder to analyse how C4ISTAR fits in to the bigger campaign picture
Abridged extract

16. In an era of severe affordability constraints, more attention to costing is required: through-life and pan lines-of-development
Abridged extract

17. Other Points SDSR has re-defined how UK forces plan to operate:
Issues of scale
Planned force levels below that for which many existing models were developed.
Issues of complexity
Representation of coalition operations is simplistic (and often optimistic)
Increasing emphasis on influence rather than armed force
Analysis of kinetic currently much stronger than non-kinetic effects
How do we best develop the necessary methods for the next SDSR; are there methods we can/should retire?

18. ‘Requirements Led’ Spokes
‘Hub and Spoke’ approach to methods
Actually, its a multi-layer approach, with some studies closer to the hub than others...
Hub Study
Study 1
Study 2
Study 3
.....
Study n
‘Requirements Led’ Spokes
Tackle specific stakeholder issues
Feed common challenges into the core
“Pull” appropriate approaches from the core
‘Solutions Led’ Hub
Overall coherence
“Push” of new ideas
Tackle (some) common issues, eg those with long lead times or high risk

19. Closing Thoughts (1) Beware of the hammer...
For a man with a hammer, every problem is a nail...
... we need to develop tools to address the new(er) problems
(But can we afford to throw the hammer away ?)
07 December 2018

20. ?   Closing Thoughts (2) Keep watching the world...
...planning assumptions are
precisely that and may well change ? or  
07 December 2018

21. Closing Thoughts (3) The next SDSR isn’t that far away !
07 December 2018

22. Questions,
Observations …
07 December 2018