1. East Coast Route Study
November 2016 update

2. 1. Update and strategy
7-Dec-18

3. East Coast Route Study: Overview
30 year forward view
Based on economic market analysis
Consulted across industry
Defines demand
Proposes enhancements strategy
Provides choices for investment
Existing east coast railway close to capacity
Competing Aspirations:
HS2, Classic Network and Northern Powerhouse Rail
Major interventions needed to unlock significant extra capacity
Power supply priority
Line speed & resilience opportunities
Digital Railway opportunities
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

4. Long Term Planning Process (LTPP)
Freight
etc
Scotland
Wales
Cross Boundary
Analysis
Anglia
East Coast
Route Studies
Regional Urban Passenger
London & SE Passenger
Western
Market Studies
Long Distance Passenger
Operators
Funders
Stakeholder consultation
Service Specifiers
Planning Authorities
Public
Industry Plans and Enhancements Funding
Enhancement Options for Funders RF

5. Summary of what we know Demand IEP & HS2 meets long distance demand
Inner suburban growth accounted for by rolling stock until end CP6; effects of Thameslink expected to increase demand sooner
Conditional Outputs (2043): connectivity for economic growth
Service specification defined by increased connectivity that generates economic benefits
Interventions required throughout route
Little opportunity for small scale interventions that add significant capacity
South of Doncaster: less critical
North of Doncaster (esp. York to Newcastle) highly critical: significant intervention required to unlock even incremental capacity
Nature of Constraints
Mix of traffic with different speeds the overriding issue
Conflicting movements at junctions and stations
7-Dec-18

6. Summary of issues The overriding issue is speed mix
Even 4 track sections are capacity limited when traffic runs at different speeds
Line speeds will increase over time to drive journey time down, worsening the problem
New physical infrastructure is an expensive solution: you need a lot of it for a small increase in capacity
Major bottlenecks shape the service structure: Welwyn, Stilton Fen, Tyne Bridges
New signalling solutions offer additional potential
Alternative service patterns are not always viable / attractive to funders
Affordability
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

7. Defining a growth strategy
Piecemeal building is not a long term solution: just moves the constraint around.
So:
Define a strategic approach for the route
Develop enhancements packages that move towards target outputs
Promote opportunities for investment
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

8. Proposed Strategic Approach
Increase line capacity by reducing the speed difference between services, and reducing headway; improve performance, safety and resilience
Rolling stock, improved freight journey times, higher performing local units
Dedicated fast and slow lines
Link diversionary routes to create dedicated freight paths
Use traffic management technology to manage non-stop paths and freight journey time
Separate slow/stopping traffic from fast
Build additional routes to separate flows where necessary
Use technology to reduce headway and manage passenger experience
Develop safer resilient infrastructure = better performance
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

9. 2. The ECRS report
7-Dec-18

10. Proposed Report Structure
Route Study
Appendices
Info Graphic Pack
Consultation & Data Room
Summary Document
ECMA Narrative
‘Flyer’
Economic Narrative
Economic narratives to be developed by Economic Group Leads for:
KGX to PBO
PBO to Doncaster – Lincs
Doncaster to Leeds & York
York to Newcastle
Newcastle to Scotland
ECMA overview used to provide whole-route narrative
Regional group priorities feed into economic narrative
Regional Group Priorities
Funding Strategy
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

11. Funding and Business Cases
Route Study report format and content
Organised by Route Section
Aligned to Local Economic Narratives and Commercial Drivers
Context and Challenges
Whole Network/ Whole System
Infographics
Links to offline evidence and supporting material
Funding and Business Cases
Context and Challenges:
Set out devolved funding environment
Align to local economic narratives & funds
Illustrate models for funding
Based on 5 Cases Strategic Outline Business Case Elements
7-Dec-18

12. Report Opportunities data examples ECMA Narrative: whole route
Local Narratives:
Which could include (but not limited to):
Driving the economy
better connections
journey times
ports and freight termini
Evidence:
Sectors
strengths
data
target growth
examples
real examples
Planning
housing
stations
air and road
Funding:
existing
innovation and multistream
Employment and skills
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

13. East Coast Route Study programme: next steps
Present interventions as choices for funders Spring 2017
Publish a strategic study for the long term development
of the ECML Spring 2017
This will be a draft version for consultation at first
Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer