1. The Future of Software Engineering
东华理工大学软件学院 李祥

2. Contents 14.1 How have we done? 14.2 Technology transfer
14.3 Decision making in software engineering
14.4 The professionalization of software engineering: licensing, certification and ethics

3. Chapter 14 Objectives The Wasserman principles and how we have done
Technology transfer
How researchers provide evidence for technology adoption
Decision making in software engineering
Next step in research and practice

4. 14.1 How Have We Done? Use complex languages
Use patterns and abstractions
Apply formal methods
Build a vast array of tools

5. 14.1 How Have We Done? Challenges Ahead
Provide great accuracy in the large: we can tell
when a space vehicle will reach Mars
when a chemical reaction will reach a critical stage
Do not have accuracy in small: we cannot tell
precisely when a software product will fail again
exactly how a user will exercise system’s function

6. 14.1 How Have We Done? Wasserman’s Steps to Maturity
Abstraction
Analysis and design notations
User interface prototyping
Software architecture
Software process
Reuse
Measurement
Tools and integrated environments

7. 14.1 How Have We Done? What Now?
Should consider how well we move the new software engineering ideas into practice
Must consider how well our research and practice support decision making about processes, resources, and products

8. 14.2 Technology Transfer Producers: create and use new technologies
Consumers: adopt and use new technologies in new products and services

9. 14.2 Technology Transfer How We Make Technology Transfer Decision Now
In the 1960s and 1970s, it took an average of 7.5 years for new technology to become widely available
Because of time-to-market pressure, new technologies must prove themselves quickly

10. 14.2 Technology Transfer Adopter Types
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
Late majority
Laggards

11. 14.2 Technology Transfer Evidence Supporting Technology Decisions
Researchers: reproducible validation methods
theoretical proof, static analysis, and simulation
Practitioners: methods relevant to their environment
case studies, field studies, and replicated controlled experiments

12. 14.2 Technology Transfer Types of Evidence and Their Audiences
What will you do for your new technology？

13. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering
Two points of view of decision-making
Descriptive描述性的: provides evidence about how decisions are actually made
Prescriptive说明性的: provides frameworks and methods to help decision-makers

14. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Roots of Decision Science

15. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Elements that Affect How We Make Decision

16. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Issues in Group Decision-Making

17. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Types of Decision
Strategic decision: affects the well being and nature of the organization
Tactical decision: affects pricing, employee assignment, customer interaction, or operations
Routine decision: repetitive in nature, local in scope, and guided by organizational rules or policies

18. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering How We Really Decide
Bias Caused by Decision Context 背景偏见
stereotype threat 刻板印象威胁
status quo bias现状偏见
Individuals exhibit a marked preference for case-specific,or singular information个体对特定情况和单一信息由明显偏好
一个因素出现的越久远，回忆者降低其重要性的倾向就越高
Anchoring-and-adjustment锚定和调整
不愿表现的消极

19. 14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering Example Used in Assessing Group Effects
Condition
Error rate
Subject is alone 1%
With one person who says A 3%
With two people who say A
13%
With three people who say A
33%
With six who say A and one who say B 6%

20. Improve software engineering education
14.4 The Professionalization of Software Engineering: Licensing, Certification and Ethics
Improve software engineering education
Licensing or certification to improve process and product

21. 谢谢大家！
References
软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版 影印版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee ,高等教育出版社
软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee,杨卫东译,人民邮电出版社
软件工程—实践者的研究方法（Software Engineering-A Practitioner’s Approach）; (美) Roger S. Pressman 著； 机械工业出版社ISBN：