2. Kern Countys Population will More than Double Growth Driven by Spillover from Southern California and Our Kids Trend: Kerns Changing Ethnicity Hispanics will increase from 38 to 58 percent Trend: Kern is Aging Persons 55+ will increase from 17 to 22 percent Source: California Department of Finance, 2007

3. Even if we created an eight-lane triple beltway system we still cannot build our way out of congestion with all the development on the books today. Future Heavy Traffic Congestion (2045-65 depending on how fast we grow) Downtown Olive Dr at 99 RosedaleHwy at 99 Rosedale Hwy at 99 Todays Heavy Traffic Congestion (2005) Bakersfield South Beltway Westside Parkway West Beltway Shafter North Beltway outer metro beltway crosstown inner beltway CSUB BC Airport Lamont Shafter Bakersfield Red = Frequent Congestion Orange = Regular Congestion Yellow = Occasional Congestion Red = Frequent Congestion Orange = Regular Congestion Yellow = Occasional Congestion Will Building Freeways Eliminate Congestion?

4. Relief Options for Congested Freeways CSUB BC Mill Creek Baker St Transportation model results indicated that ridership on light-rail not enough by 2014: –700 passengers per mile –2000 needed per mile to operate affordably One Light Rail Line Can Carry as Many Passengers as 16-lanes of Freeway (El Toro Y in Orange County) One Approach: Phased Light Rail Today Bus Rapid Transit Light Rail Metro Bakersfield Light Rail Sketch Plan The 1996 light rail study for Bakersfield indicated that there would not be enough riders for a system by 2014. The city was not compact enough to operate the service. The study recommended enhancing bus service as an interim step until the community became compact enough to operate a light rail system. Some communities are looking to express bus or bus rapid transit as an interim service until activity around the transit stops are busy and compact enough to support a light rail system. Metro Bakersfield Bus Transit Interim Step to Light Rail San Diego Trolley Eugene OR,. Bus Rapid Transit – Dedicated bus lane on arterial streets Bus caught in same traffic as cars Metropolitan Bakersfield Major Transportation Investment Study (1996) Mervyns Plaza Downtown AMTRAK