1. Overview of PARIMA/LEWS Collaboration 2001-2003
First Component: Livestock Offtake
Second Component: Spatial Analysis

2. LEWS: Livestock Early Warning
LEWS is also funded by GL-CRSP
Led by Texas A&M University, U.S.A.
LEWS investigates possible early warning predictors for livestock condition, range condition, and rainfall to encourage timely sales

3. Question and Objective
Question: How to convert a larger share of pastoral livestock mortality into sales to better conserve wealth?
Objective: Identify feasible interventions that might induce more sales at early stages of drought

4. Two Inter-related Issues
What factors limit livestock off-take during stress periods ?
What interventions might foster more responsive livestock off-take under today’s conditions of increased system stress?

5. Alternative Hypotheses
Lack of information? (no information on prices, animal or range condition, -- also due to lack of communications)
Complex ownership rights? (hard to sell your father’s animal even if you need to)
Low prices (poor market power)
Poor infrastructure and high insecurity

6. Hypotheses, continued
No need or alternative use for money (let them die)
Stock too valuable to sell early and replace later (gamble I will survive until the next rains come, so hang on and hope for the best result)
Tenurial regimes a problem (if I sell I lose access to grazing and water resources)
Cross-border policy constraints and quarantines severely limit trade

7. Break-Out Groups
Based on your experience and logic, which hypotheses do you feel explain the low off-take from pastoral systems? What then is your priority intervention?
Your group needs to rank your top 3 hypotheses (#1 the strongest, #2 next strongest, and #3 next strongest)