1. Evaluate Economic Impact of TransgenesDr
Objective 4a
Evaluate Economic Impact of Transgenes
Lead PI: Chad Hart

2. Timeline/Milestones for Year 4
Websites of
Timeline/Milestones for Year 4

3. Task i. Establish baseline data
Establish baseline data on:
U.S. and global soybean markets
SDS losses
Regulatory costs of transgenic varieties
Utilize USDA World Ag. Supply & Demand data for 1a.
Combine USDA data with information from industry and commodity groups for 1b.
Work with Dr. Kalaitzandonakes and industry representatives to map out regulatory cost structure

4. Projections for the U.S. Soybean Market
Websites of
Source: USDA-Office of Chief Economist, Long-term Projections, released Feb. 2016

5. Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html
Websites of
Additional Source: USDA-Risk Management Agency, Cause of Loss dataset

6. Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html
Websites of

7. Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html
Websites of

8. Example of Regulatory Cost Estimate
Source: Kalaitzandonakes, Alston, and Bradford, 2005

9. Task ii. Evaluate revenues and production costs
Generate historical average and projected prices
Price premiums/discounts for transgenics
Revenue impacts from yield changes
Generate production cost estimates
Utilize established costs for standard crop
Augment cost budget for transgenics

10. Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S.
Use the outputs from tasks i and ii as inputs for scenario analysis
Impacts on plantings, supply, demand, etc.
Multiple scenarios exploring adoption rates, regulatory costs, and price impacts