1. Volume 21, Issue 23, Pages R941-R945 (December 2011)
The optimism bias 
Tali Sharot 
Current Biology 
Volume 21, Issue 23, Pages R941-R945 (December 2011)
DOI: /j.cub
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2. Figure 1
Optimism bias in healthy individuals and lack of optimism bias in depression.
In two studies participants were asked to predict the likelihood of different life events that might occur to them in an upcoming month (such as receiving a gift, burning dinner, getting stuck in traffic). At the end of the month they reported back which events had occurred. (A) Healthy individuals predicted positive events to be more likely than negative or neutral events. However, in reality the likelihood of positive, negative and neutral events to occur was equal (Sharot and Dudai, cited in Sharot 2011). (B) Greater pessimism bias was associated with depressive symptoms as measured by BDI-II scores (bias is measured as the difference between predicted and actual likelihood of positive events and the reverse for negative events). Individuals scoring low on depression symptoms showed an optimism bias (dark grey), individuals showing no bias in either direction were mildly depressed (light grey), and individuals exhibiting a pessimism bias scored high on depression symptoms (white). Adapted with permission from Strunk et al. (2006).
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3. Figure 2 How optimism is maintained in the face of reality.
(A) When given desirable information about the future (such as learning that the likelihood of suffering from cancer is lower than anticipated) people updated their belief to a greater degree than when receiving undesirable information (such as learning that the likelihood of suffering from cancer is greater than anticipated). This difference was related to how well regions of the frontal lobe tracked estimation errors (that is, the differences between prior beliefs about the future and information presented). (B) Activity in the left inferior frontal gyrus was correlated with the extent of errors that resulted from positive information equally well in highly optimistic individuals and people low on optimism. (C) In the right inferior frontal gyrus activity correlated strongly with negative errors in people low on optimism, but less so in highly optimistic individuals (trait optimism is measured independently by the LOT-R scale). Adapted with permission from Sharot et al. (2011).
Current Biology  , R941-R945DOI: ( /j.cub )
Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions