1. value of monitored variable
Probability of observing any possible substantial increase ( and ?) for a given true value (x) of a monitored variable, smallest important change (), and standard error of the change (e).
distribution of true values for observed value giving 10% chance of 
distribution of observed values for true value = x
probability
t90 = t statistic for 90% cumulative probability
t  e = t90 e+ x - 
area = prob. of any possible    x
area = 10%
t90 e
negative
positive
value of monitored variable
T statistic (t) for probability of observing any possible  = t90 + (x - )/e

2. value of monitored variable
Probability of observing any possible substantial decrease ( and ?) for a given true value (x) of a monitored variable, smallest important change (), and standard error of the change (e).
distribution of true values for observed value giving 10% chance of 
distribution of observed values for true value = x
probability
t90 = t statistic for 90% cumulative probability
t  e = x +  - t90 e
area = prob. of any possible    x
area = 10%
t90 e
negative
positive
value of monitored variable
T statistic (t) for probability of observing any possible  = -((x + )/e – t90)

3. value of monitored variable
Probability of observing an unclear change (?) is given by: probability of any increase minus probability of a clear increase = probability of any increase minus probability of not any decrease = probability of any increase minus (100 minus probability of any decrease).
If the resulting probability is negative, set it to zero (no unclear changes).
The same probability would be obtained by considering the probability of any decrease minus the probability of a clear decrease.
distribution of observed values for true value = x
probability
area = prob. of ?
negative
positive
value of monitored variable

4. value of monitored variable
Probability of observing a very likely increase () for a given true value (x) of a monitored variable, smallest important change (), and standard error of the change (e).
distribution of true values for observed value giving 90% chance of 
distribution of observed values for true value = x
probability
t90 = t statistic for 90% cumulative probability
t  e = t90 e+  - x
area = prob. of    x
area = 10%
t90 e
negative
positive
value of monitored variable
T statistic (t) for probability of observing  = -(t90 + ( - x)/e)

5. value of monitored variable
Probability of observing a very likely decrease () for a given true value (x) of a monitored variable, smallest important change (), and standard error of the change (e).
distribution of true values for observed value giving 90% chance of 
distribution of observed values for true value = x
probability
t90 = t statistic for 90% cumulative probability
t e+  + x = t90  e  
area = prob. of  x
area = 10%
t90  e
negative
positive
value of monitored variable
T statistic (t) for probability of observing  = -(t90 + ( + x)/e)