1. NS4960 Spring Term 2017 North America Energy Trilemma
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Strong Dollar Weak Dollar

2. Overview World Energy Council Trilemma Framework Energy Security
The effective management of primary energy supply from domestic and external sources
The reliability of energy infrastructure and
The ability of energy providers to meet current and future demand
Energy Equity
The accessibility and affordability of energy supply across the population
Environmental Sustainability
The achievement of supply and demand side efficiencies and
The development of energy supply from renewable and other low-carbon sources

3. The Energy Trilemma II

4. The Energy Trilemma III

5. Energy Trilemma Top Performers I

6. Energy Trilemma Top Performers II

7. Country Context Country context
Focuses on elements that enable countries to effectively develop a policy and achieve energy goals
This component examines factors such as
The capacity to support a coherent and predictable policy framework
A stable regulatory environment and
Overall attractiveness of the country to investors.

8. Top Thirty Performers

9. U.S. Trilemma Balance I

10. U.S. Trilemma Balance II
The U.S. balances the three dimensions of the energy trilemma in a fashion typical for a “fossil fueled” country.
Strong performance on energy security and energy equity are partially offset by country’s large environmental footprint.
A further diversified electricity generation system and greater oil stocks lead to improved energy security situating.
Recent development of sources of shale gas will likely help the U.S. become a net energy exporter in the near future.

11. U.S. Trilemma Balance III
Performance on the environmental sustainability dimension lags but shows improvement
Slightly lower levels of energy and emissions intensities
CO2 emissions from electricity generation are also reduced but remain high
U.S. predominantly conventional thermal energy mix
The recent decision by the Trump administration to withdraw from the Paris Agreement has added uncertainty to the
Nevertheless, commitment among Americans remains high in supporting renewables development, with some cities pledging to stick by earlier commitments to target emissions decreases and increase shares of renewables.

12. U.S. Electricity Diversity

13. U.S. Outlook
Important energy policy developments in the U.S. that will impact on balance in the three dimensions of the trilemma include
Under Obama administration, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations on coal leading to the projected closure of more than 200 coal plants in the next few years
Accounting for more than 10% of the U.S’s current energy production
Possible regulations on unconventional gas production
How much will the EPA roll back regulations?

14. Canada: Trilemma Balance I
Canada ranks 21 in the overall energy ranking
Although one of the top Index performers overall, Canada’s weaker environmental sustainability ranking continues to undermine its overall score
Canada is one of the largest energy exporters in the world
The country ranks exceptionally well on the energy security dimension with
A favorable energy export-to-import ratio
A significantly diversified electricity generation mix away from fossil fuels and
A low economic dependency on fuel exports

15. Canada: Trilemma Balance II

16. Canada: Trilemma Balance III
Energy equity is also high with plentiful, relatively affordable energy.
Environmental sustainability remains Canada’s weakest energy dimension
Country has relatively high levels of energy and emission intensity due to
long distances and
a higher reliance on energy intensive resource development industries than most countries
Emissions per kWh generated stay at relatively low levels because of the hydro heavy electricity fuel mix
Contextual performance stable and strong

17. Canada: Diversity of Electricity Generation

18. Canada: Outlook I
Canada’s high and improving position in the index reflects
The country’s extensive and diverse energy resource base and
Public and private commitment to develop those resources
The two main challenges Canada faces are
Balancing resource development with environmental protection and
Developing diverse markets for Canada’s energy resources

19. Canada: Outlook II The most recent energy policy developments include
A strong focus on developing markets for oil and gas beyond North America
A faster energy infrastructure approvals process, and
More stringent environmental standards for fossil fueled power generation, both federally and provincially
These initiatives should support continuing improvement in Canada’s energy balance

20. Canada: Outlook III
The three key issues policymakers need to focus on are
Managing the environment/climate impacts of energy resource development
Market diversification and
Ensuring an appropriate sharing of the benefits from resource development most notably with Canada’s aboriginal population in whose territory most resource development and delivery projects are being developed.

21. Mexico: Trends and Outlook I

22. Mexico: Electricity Generation

23. Mexico: Trends and Outlook II
Mexico falls by 5 places in this year’s Index, from rank 52 in 2016 to rank 57 in The country performs well across the board, receiving a balance score of BBB.
The Mexican energy sector is facing a dual challenge
The transition from a monopolistic structure to a competitive market scheme, following the market liberalization in 2013 and
The transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy.
• Mexico is the second country, after the UK, which has enacted a law that frames the actions to be taken with regards to
climate change (2012 General Law on Climate Change, LGCC), both from an emission mitigation point of view, as
measures of adaptation.

24. Mexico: Trends and Outlook III
Mexico’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for COP21 include
a 25% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (compared to a business-as-usual projection), with
35% of electricity generation to come from clean energies by and
an aspirational goal of a 50% reduction in GHG emissions by

25. Mexico: Trends and Outlook III
The greatest challenges policymakers need to focus on to meet the targets are
the continuation of a renewable energy program and the re- initiation of a nuclear program
continued increase of production of both oil and natural gas on and offshore as well as the development of shale gas resources; and
improved energy efficiency and energy conservation in order to reduce Mexico’s energy intensity