1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Highlands and Islands
comprising Argyll and Bute, Eilean Siar, Highland, Moray, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart
1. The Highlands and Islands Region
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base by local authority (2015)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per ( ) and Business Survival Index ( ) Highlands and Islands
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Highlands and Island’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC)
Deprivation in Highlands and Islands by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band, 2014 – 2037
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 – 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Skills in Highlands and Islands
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Highlands and Islands Occupation Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Highlands and Islands
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Highlands and Islands
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Employment by qualification (000s) Highlands and Islands 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s) Highlands and Islands

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. And example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. The Highlands and Islands Region

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority, 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Highlands and Islands
Argyll and Bute
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
24%
21%
26%
20%
46%
39%
10%
Production 6% 8% 5%
Construction
12% 9%
14%
11%
Motor trades 3% 2%
Wholesale 1%
Retail 7%
Transport & storage 4%
Accomm.& food services
Information & communication
Financial & insurance 0%
<1%
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
13%
19%
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Total
21,965
3,855
1,175
10,840
3,190
1,470
1,460
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts. 2016
Note: although numbers of businesses low in Public Sector, it’s still a sizeable employer within the region

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
Argyll and Bute
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Highlands and Islands
Scotland
0-9
89%
90%
91%
88%
10-49
10% 9%
11%
50-249 1% 0% 2%
250+
Source: UK Business Counts and Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2016; Number of business enterprises per 10,000 of the population

10. Figure 2.3 Business births and death per 10,000 population ( ) and Business Survival Index ( ) Highlands and Islands
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
Argyll and Bute
£400
£435
-£35
Eilean Siar
£402
£368
£34
Highland
£423
£409
£14
Moray
£365
£375
-£10
Orkney Islands
£386
£373
£13
Shetland Islands
£492
£500
-£8
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Highlands and Island’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC)1
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
Argyll and Bute
57%
25%
18%
Eilean Siar
41%
29%
30%
Highland
55%
23%
22%
Moray
46%
31%
Orkney Islands
50%
26%
24%
Shetland Island
45%
27%
28%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Highlands and Islands here:

13. Figure 2.6: Deprivation in Highlands and Islands by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
1See SIMD interactive map here:

14. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2037
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
Argyll and Bute
-13%
-24%
-22%
-29% 5%
80%
-8%
Eilean Siar
-28%
-35%
-27%
64%
-14%
Highland
-6%
-11%
-16%
19%
105% 3%
Moray
-12%
-7%
28%
97% 4%
Orkney Islands
-15%
-4%
-17%
10%
101% 2%
Shetland Islands
-19%
-10%
25%
108%
-1%
Highlands and Islands
-9%
-18%
17%
96% 0%
Scotland 1%
-2%
27%
85% 7%
Source: General Register for Scotland.

15. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Region
Low Unemployment , High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), Jan-Dec, 2016.
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

16. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Local Authority
Low Unemployment, High Productivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), Jan-Dec 2016.
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

17. Table 2.6: School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16
Highlands and Islands
Argyll and Bute
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Higher education (%)
2009/10
32%
33%
37%
30%
35%
2015/16
39%
41%
34%
28%
Change 3% 5% 4% 2% 7%
-3%
Further education (%)
21%
19%
25%
26%
23% 0%
16%
20%
-1%
-10%
-2%
Employment (%)
31%
29%
46%
36% 8% 6%
10%
-7%
Unemployed (%)
11%
12%
13%
-6%
-8%
-5%
-4%
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Highlands and Islands

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Highlands and Islands Occupation Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

23. Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Highlands and Islands
Argyll and Bute
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Higher level jobs
37%
40%
36%
32%
38%
Middle level jobs
35%
41%
33%
30%
Lower level jobs
27%
24%
23%
25%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Highlands and Islands,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
-0.1
4.3
4.2
Professional occupations
-0.4
16.3
15.9
Associate professional & technical occupations
-0.3
4.5
Administrative & secretarial occupations
-0.7
6.4
5.8
Skilled trades occupations
0.3
12.5
12.8
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
5.6
5.9
Sales & customer service occupations
-0.5
9.0
8.5
Process, plant & machine operatives
3.1
2.6
Elementary occupations
0.0
21.1
Total
-2.0
82.8
80.8
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2017-2027
Highlands and Islands
Argyll and Bute
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Higher level jobs
30%
32%
31%
26%
25%
33%
Middle level jobs
21%
28%
17%
Lower level jobs
40%
38%
48%
36%
45%
58%
46%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Highlands and Islands,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.4
8.5
8.0
Mining and quarrying
-0.2
0.2
-0.1
Manufacturing
-2.0
3.6
1.6
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
0.4
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
2.8
2.6
Construction
2.4
5.8
8.2
Wholesale and retail trade
-0.7
18.6
18.0
Transport and storage
8.9
8.8
Accommodation and food services
0.7
13.3
14.0
Information and communication
0.3
0.0
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
0.1
Professional, scientific and technical
1.4
Admin. and support services
6.3
7.6
Public admin. and defence
-2.2
7.8
5.6
Education
-1.2
5.2
Human health and social work
9.3
9.2
Arts, entertainment and recreation
0.6
5.0
5.5
Other service activities
Total
96.7
96.5
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Highlands and Islands,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.13
0.2
0.1
Creative industries
0.4
1.1
1.4
Construction
2.3
6.5
8.8
Energy
-0.2
2.0
Engineering
0.7
0.8
Food and drink
-1.0
9.7
8.7
Financial and business services
1.9
Health and social care
-0.1
9.3
9.2
ICT/digital
0.0
0.3
Life sciences
Tourism
1.0
15.3
16.3
Total
3.4
46.4
49.8
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Employment by qualification (jobs, 000s), Highlands and Islands, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Highlands and Islands, 2017-2027
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
0.4
3.1
3.5
SCQF
1.6
34.6
36.2
SCQF 6
-1.8
13.5
11.7
SCQF 5
-0.2
20.3
20.1
SCQF 1-4
-1.6
4.7
No Qualifications
-0.3
6.5
6.2
Total
-2.0
82.8
80.8
Source: Oxford Economics.