1. NPRS
December 7, 2011

2. Kudos Improvements in extended range model systems
Have enabled field to do DSS in extended ranges
Offices are pushing the envelope
Hendrik’s effort with nearshore wave model a good example of working with the field
OCONUS – efforts with downscaled DNG, RTMA, Fukushima event greatly appreciated - AK support
SPC Web site produced by SPC for probabilities/experimental convective a great service

3. Wish List Improved RTMA 3-hour GFS resolution
Plans for Rapid Refresh to be sent to Alaska Region
HWRF for Western Pacific
More GFS BUFR soundings for Pacific Region

4. Discussion Items
SSDs and NCEP partner to address data distribution problem
Create the ability to send experimental data sets to field for evaluation
Produce model-based sensible weather fields for field use in GFE, i.e., what parameters should be derived at the WFO versus provided by NCEP?
Downscaling will be done by field
Ensembles – lack of spread for significant events
Too often spread not indicative of uncertainty
Too often what verifies is outside of all envelop of all ensemble solutions
NCEP production cycle
Opportunity – eliminate 06 & 18z GFS for better ensemble
What could we do instead
Future direction
Next Generation Forecast program (0-14 days) for DSS
Forecast over the loop – where human monitor process
Hourly 1km models to global
Tools provided on what is a big impact – anomalies
Where does warn-on-forecast fit into NCEP plans?
HRRR/FIM
Centers help with “science” of using models – SPC experience