1. Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
A short range ensemble prediction system applied in TC forecast
Le Duc
National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
Jeju,

2. Motivation
The success of SREPS in other centers (SREPS in NCEP, COSMO-LEPS in ECMWF, SREPS in INM, …):
The useful information of EPS in storm movement forecast (ECMWF EPS, NCEP EPS, JMA EPS)
SREF can detect the occurrence of extreme phenomena like heavy rainfall, heat wave, …

3. We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach.
Method
Breeding of growing mode (NCEP)
Singular vectors (ECMWF)
Observation perturbations (CMC)
Ensemble transform Kalman filter
Ensemble transform
We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach.

4. SREPS description
4 times per day, 72h forecast (00Z, 12Z), 48h forecast (06Z, 18Z)
output format: netcdf (interpolated to a common area)
parallel post processing (graphics)
access through intranet

5. Computational resources
PC Cluster 16 nodes, 4 cores per node, 8G RAM per node:
BOLAM: 3 nodes
Eta: 4 nodes
HRM: 3 nodes
WRFNMM: 6 nodes
Dell 2 CPUs, 4 cores per CPU, 16G RAM: pre and post processing

6. Website

7. Stamp map: storm tracks

8. A member forecast

9. Strike probability maps

10. Point accumulated strike probability charts

11. Example: TC Higos

12. Stamp map: 06h precipitation

13. Precipitation probability maps

14. EPSgram Interpretation Image of boxplots of PDF Largest value
Upper quartile
Lower quartile
Median
Smallest value
Interpretation
of boxplots
Image
of PDF

15. Future work: new website

16. Future work: NAEFS

17. Future works Verification Post-processing: bias correction, BMA or NGM
A specific SREPS for TC forecast: 5 models BoLAM, BRAMS, HRM, MM5, WRF-ARW, storm target domain
Clustering

18. Thank you