1. 2nd Supplemental Instruction National Conference for Southern Africa.
Undergraduate student success in South African Universities: What’s the story?
2nd Supplemental Instruction National Conference for Southern Africa.
27 March 2018
Port Elizabeth

2. ‘Transforming teaching, learning, researching and leading towards enhanced quality, success and equity in universities’
[Ministerial Statement on the Implementation of the University Capacity Development Programme through Effective Management and Utilization of the University Capacity Development Grant, 2018 – 2020, released 31 March 2017]

3. International Context
Funding
Policy
Planning
STEERING MECHANISMS
A UCDP VIEW OF HIGHER EDUCATION TRANSFORMATION
International Context
Regional Context
National Context
Community
University
INEQUALITY
Knowledge
Race
Class
Gender
Culture
Language
Disability
Teaching and Learning
Research and Engagement
Leadership, Management and Governance
QUALITY
Curriculum
Students
Academics and Support Staff
Management
Council
CAPACITATING PEOPLE
Support Professionals

4. Throughput from Grade 1 to university, 2008 matric cohort
THE BIGGER PROBLEM WITH STUDENT SUCCESS IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN EDUCATION SYSTEM
Throughput from Grade 1 to university, 2008 matric cohort
(ref. CHE, Briefly Speaking, October 2017 (Figure redrawn from: Spaull (2016), ‘Important research inputs on #FeesMustFall’ )

5. HE IN SOUTH AFRICA- AN ‘ELONGATED LEAKING FUNNEL’ SYSTEM?
INNEFICIENT & WASTEFUL & REPRODUCING INEQUALITY…AND WHAT ABOUT QUALITY?

6. Higher Education Access and Outcomes for the 2008 National Matric Cohort
HENDRIK VAN BROEKHUIZEN, SERVAAS VAN DER BERG, AND HELEEN HOFMEYR
ABSTRACT
This study uses a unique dataset to investigate university access, throughput, and dropout for the 2008 national matric cohort. The findings show that university access in South Africa is limited, even among learners who perform relatively well in matric. In addition, those who do gain access to university often take a long time to complete their studies, with many never completing at all. As a result, only a select minority of matric learners manage to obtain university qualifications. Significant inequalities in university outcomes between race groups and across geographical space also remain evident. However, the results from the analysis suggests that observed patterns of university access and university success are strongly influenced by school results. The weak school system has a major influence on who reaches matric, and how they perform in matric. This, and particularly the achievement of Bachelor passes, explains much of the differences in university outcomes by race, gender and province.

7. WE DO HAVE AN IMPROVING SYSTEM, BUT ….
Student success rate* overall and by population group, gender, contact and distance
*Success rates are determined as follows: full-time equivalent (FTE) degree credits divided by FTE enrolments. These calculations, for a course, programme, for an institution as a whole or the university system as a whole, produce weighted average success rates for the course or group of courses.

8. WE DO HAVE AN IMPROVING SYSTEM, BUT….
This figure is overall, but 66.4% for contact programmes and 23.2% for distance programmes.
This figure is 15.9% overall, but 13% for contact programmes and 32.5% for distance programmes.
National total dropout % after 1 year and throughput % after 8 years for 3 to 6 year undergraduate qualifications (contact and distance)

9. Throughput % after 8 years
PERFORMANCE IS DIVERSE IN A DIVERSE SYSTEM….
Throughput % after 8 years
Dropout % after 1 year
First year dropout rate and throughput rate after 8 years for the 2009 cohort in 3 & 4 year programmes* for all universities except UNISA (35.1% dropout; 25.8% throughput)
*N Diploma; B Tech; u/g diploma or certificate; general academic first B degree; professional first B degree

10. LOOKING MORE DEEPLY INTO THE DATA…

11. HOW DO WE KNOW HOW THE SYSTEM IS PERFORMING?
Progression/Retention indicators that are being tracked at the national level?
First year dropout rate in 3 year contact and/or distance undergraduate diplomas
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year diploma contact and/or distance undergraduate intake cohort that exit the system after one year of study.
First year dropout rate in 3 year contact and/or distance undergraduate degrees
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year degree contact and/or distance undergraduate intake cohort that exit the system after one year of study.
First year dropout rate in contact and /or distance undergraduate degrees of 4 or more year’s duration
The percentage of students in a specific contact and/or distance 4 or more year’s undergraduate degree intake cohort that exit the system after one year of study.

12. HOW DO WE KNOW HOW THE SYSTEM IS PERFORMING?
Completion indicators that are being tracked at the national level?
Throughput rate for 3 year contact undergraduate diplomas
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact undergraduate diploma intake cohort that graduate in (5) years.
Throughput rate for 3 year contact undergraduate degrees
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in (5) years.
Throughput rate for 3 year distance undergraduate degrees and diplomas
The percentage of students in a specific distance 3 year undergraduate degree and diploma intake cohort that graduate in (8) years.
Throughput rate for contact undergraduate degrees of 4 or more years duration
The percentage of students in a specific 4 or more years contact undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in (6) years.
Throughput rate for distance undergraduate degrees of 4 or more years duration
The percentage of distance students in a specific 4 or more years undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in (10) years.

13. First year dropout rate in 3 year undergraduate diplomas

14. First year dropout rate in 3 year undergraduate degrees

15. First year dropout rate in undergraduate degrees of four or more years duration

16. Throughput rate for 3 year undergraduate diplomas
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact undergraduate diploma intake cohort that graduate in 5 years (n + 2)
2005 cohort that graduated in 2009 (%)
2011 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2012 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
Overall
42.5
53.7
53.5
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year distance undergraduate diploma intake cohort that graduate in 8 years (n x 2) + 2
2005 cohort that graduated in 2012 (%)
2008 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2009 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
11.4
16.3
20.9
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact and distance undergraduate diploma intake cohort that graduate in 6 years (n x 2)
2005 cohort that graduated in 2011 (%)
2010 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2011 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
37.7
46.7
46.4
Overall male
34.1
42.9
Overall female
41.3
50.3
49.6
Overall African
35.5
45.7
45.5
Overall coloured
38.6
47.2
47.8
Overall Indian
43.4
55.6
Overall white
50.4
55.2
53.9

17. Throughput rate in 3 year undergraduate diplomas(contact and distance)

18. Throughput rate for 3 year undergraduate degrees
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 5 years (n + 2)
2005 cohort that graduated in 2009 (%)
2011 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2012 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
Overall
59.8
63.3
63.1
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year distance undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 8 years (n x 2) + 2
2005 cohort that graduated in 2012 (%)
2008 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2009 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
17.8
24.0
26.6
The percentage of students in a specific 3 year contact and distance undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 6 years (n x 2)
2005 cohort that graduated in 2011 (%)
2010 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2011 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
50.7
55.8
54.6
Overall male
46.4
51.5
49.8
Overall female
54.2
59.0
58.9
Overall African
41.0
52.0
49.7
Overall coloured
42.6
46.1
48.1
Overall Indian
54.8
Overall White
66.2
66.3
67.1

19. Throughput rate for 3 year undergraduate degrees (contact and distance)

20. Throughput rate for undergraduate degrees of four or more years duration
The percentage of students in a specific 4 or more years contact undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 6 years (n + 2).
2005 cohort that graduated in 2010 (%)
2010 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2011 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
Overall contact
65.5
69.8
71.1
The percentage of students in a specific 4 or more years distance undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 10 years (n x 2) + 2
2005 cohort that graduated in 2014 (%)
2006 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2007 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
Overall distance
30.7
29.3
33.6
The percentage of students in a specific 4 or more years contact and distance undergraduate degree intake cohort that graduate in 8 years (n x 2)
2005 cohort that graduated in 2012 (%)
2008 cohort that graduated in 2015 (%)
2009 cohort that graduated in 2016 (%)
Overall
59.0
67.7
66.0
Overall male
55.4
65.8
62.4
Overall female
61.8
69.0
68.4
Overall African
51.2
61.3
62.0
Overall coloured
53.2
62.5
59.7
Overall Indian
60.7
79.6
73.7
Overall white
70.7
79.9
75.1

21. Throughput rate for undergraduate degrees (contact and distance) of four or more years duration

22. Programme development
THE UNIVERSITY CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT GRANT AND PROGRAMME: A STRUCTURED APPROACH AND THE NEXT STEP TO FURTHER GROW A SUCCESSFUL AND TRANSFORMED HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM?
THE UNIVERSITY CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT GRANT: A CONTRIBUTION
TO RESOURCING THE SYSTEM
FOR SUCCESS
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT GRANT
TEACHING DEVELOPMENT GRANT
Staff development
Programme development
Student development
THE UNIVERSITY CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME: GEARING THE SYSTEM FOR SUCCESS

23. RECRUITMENT/ CAREER ADVISING PARTICIPATION IN THE ECONOMY
THE UNIVERSITY CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME PROMOTES A STRUCTURED APPROACH TO IMPROVING STUDENT SUCCESS…
RECRUITMENT/ CAREER ADVISING
PARTICIPATION IN THE ECONOMY
SCHOOLING
STUDENT ADVISING
ANALYSING, PREDICTING AND PLANNINGFROM QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE DATA
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
ADMISSION
GRADUATION
Tutoring Programmes
Mentoring Programmes
Academic Development
Supplementary Instruction
First Year Experience Programmes
Technology-mediated learning and assessment platforms
Psycho-social support
STUDENT SUPPORT
EVALUATING IMPACT

24. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT …
Dropout and throughput rates for the 2007 undergraduate cohort after ten years of study
Adequate student funding + strong warp-around support for students =
greater success in undergraduate programmes?

25. ENHANCED STUDENT FUNDING MUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY IMPROVED STUDENT SUCCES…
'Tackle university drop-out rate'
PRETORIA NEWS / 26 MARCH 2018, 07:27AM / SAKHILE NDLAZI
DEPUTY Minister of Higher Education and Training Buti Manamela said the high university drop-out rate needed to be tackled in light of fee-free higher education.
Manamela was addressing students, mostly members of the ANC Youth League, at the Tshwane University of Technology in Pretoria West. Manamela said that when a student did not graduate the expenditure over the time that the student spent studying was lost to the system. “We have been preaching free higher education, now we have it. Let’s use this opportunity to the fullest and transform lives, especially black lives,” he said.
He said dropout rates were not only affected by academic factors, but also by financial constraints faced by students. Part of the problem was that there was not sufficient guidance for young people… .
…providing free tertiary education for students who emerged from a low-quality schooling system would ultimately be self-defeating in the absence of adequate support.
This support should not only encompass extra tuition, but also a wide range of psychosocial support measures, academic development training and practical assistance with daily needs….
 [extracts from the full article]

26. THE COMPLEMENTARY SIDE OF THE PICTURE…

27. A FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING ACADEMICS AS UNIVERSITY TEACHERS…

28. THANK YOU Data Source: HEMIS unless otherwise indicated W Green
THANK YOU