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Fidelity Investments Overview: NCCMT Cash and Term Portfolios
February 2014 Michael Morin, CFA® Director of Institutional Portfolio Management Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee. For Institutional Client Use Only
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Agenda Roadmap to Higher Interest Rates Current Market Conditions
Regulatory Reform Overview Portfolio Construction Investment Strategy and Outlook For Institutional Client Use Only
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Money Market Portfolio Management Objectives
Prioritization 1 Safety 2 Liquidity 3 Return TMANE Conference: The crisis has refocused MMF investors and fund sponsors on the priorities of prudent CM For Institutional Client Use Only 2
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Roadmap To Higher U.S. Interest Rates
For Institutional Client Use Only
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A Path to Higher Interest Rates
Quantitative Easing Taper QE Assessment of QE Cease Reinvestment Of Proceeds from SOMA Holdings Normalize the Size of Balance Sheet Over Time Traditional Monetary Policy Modify Forward Guidance on the Federal Fund’s Rate Drain Excess Reserves Raise the Federal Fund’s Target Rate Monetary Policy Remains Data Dependent Employment Inflation Gross Domestic Production For Institutional Client Use Only
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The Move to Higher Interest Rates is Data Dependent
GDP Growth YoY So why have rates remained so low for so long? Primarily it is due to extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The Fed brought the fed funds target rate to a range of 0-25 basis points in December of 2008 where the target rate has remained for almost five years now. I expect the fed funds target rate to remain at this level for a considerable period, certainly at least one to two years. What should investors be focused on in order to determine when short-term rates may go higher? For one, the Fed has greatly improved the disclosure of its monetary policy strategy. You can read the language in the Fed’s statements or meetings minutes and get a very good idea of what the central bank’s intentions are with respect to monetary policy. The Fed has several tools at its disposal in setting appropriate monetary policy. One of these strategies they have used over the last several years is referred to as forward guidance. Through forward guidance the Fed has provided the market with an assessment on how long they expect to maintain interest rates at their current levels. In 2009, the Fed said that rates would remain low for a “considerable period” In August 2011, the Fed set explicit calendar date-based guidance to provide the market with additional transparency. Finally, in December 2012, the Fed switched to threshold-based guidance which the chart here references. In simple terms, the Fed said that rates would remain at current levels at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and inflation is no more than 0.5% above the Committee's 2% longer-run goal. As you can see in the chart, unemployment is trending lower but at a modest pace, while inflation remains well below the Fed’s goal. As long as these data trends remain, we are likely to see short-term rates at current levels. Source: Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 *Targets set during the 12/12/12 Fed meeting 5 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Jobless Claims Heading to Pre-Recession Levels
Source: Department of Labor, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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U.S. Labor Participation Rates Continues Downward Trend
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Employment Creation Positive, But Not Impressive
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Post Recession U.S. Employment Recovery’s
Employment: Pre and Post Recession Employment Level Indexed to 100 at Start of Recession Most Recent Recession This chart tells a lot of the story: Job Growth prior to recession was worse than in past Recession was worst ever Recovery so far is worst ever. All of the good news on employment in the last 4 months amounts to that (look closely. Might help to squint) Why have we had such a terrible recession, followed by a miserable recovery? The answer is the credit cycle Source: NBER, BLS/Haver as of 10/31/13. Data represents Civilian Employment (SA, Thous). For Institutional Client Use Only
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U.S. Inflation Risks Remain Subdued
U.S. Monetary Base and Velocity Key Drivers of Inflation $ Trillions Money Velocity See Why Managing Inflation Risk Still Matters: A Multi-Asset Approach, October 2013. Most of the dramatic increase in the monetary base has been held as excess bank reserves, not lent out. The drop in the velocity of money has effectively blunted the ability of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion to create inflation. Weak employment and low income growth have capped inflation in housing and services, the two largest components of the CPI. CPI = Consumer Price Index. LEFT: Money velocity = GDP/M2. GDP = Gross domestic product. M2 = money supply measure including currency, demand deposits, checking deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit. Monetary base = currency plus reserves in the banking sources. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) through 7/31/13. RIGHT: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) as of 8/31/13. For Institutional Client Use Only
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Inflation Remains Well Contained
Inflation Threshold* Inflation Target Source: Left Chart - Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13; Right Chart – U. of Michigan Survey Research Center, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13. *Target set during the 12/12/12 Fed meeting For Institutional Client Use Only
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Lackluster GDP Growth Despite Historic Fed Policy
Contributions to Real GDP (% change annualized) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Potential Headwinds for GDP
Source: Left Chart - Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg as of 6/30/13; Right Chart – U. of Michigan Survey Research Center, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13. Note: Data represents % change year to year, SAAR, Bil.$ For Institutional Client Use Only
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Higher Mortgage Rates Could Dampen Recovery
Source: Bankrate.com, Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 Note: 30-year mortgage rate represents the overnight national average. For Institutional Client Use Only
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Current Market Conditions
For Institutional Client Use Only
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Coordinated Global Monetary Policy
Source: Bloomberg as of 12/31/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Central Banks Resort to Non-Traditional Policy
QE1 QE2 QE3 Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK Office for National Statistics, Bank of Japan, Economic and Social Research Institute Japan, and Bloomberg as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Low for Even Longer Federal Reserve Board Rate Expectations
Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming (December 2013) Mean 2015 2016 Longer Run Dec-2013 1.06 1.91 3.88 Sep-2013 1.25 2.26 3.93 Source: Federal Reserve as of 12/18/13 * The remaining six votes for Dec 2011 were split evenly between 2012 and 2013 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Q/E Tapering Expectations and Timing of First Rate Hike
Sep-13 Dec-13** After Fed Meeting Dec-13* Before Fed Meeting May-13 Source: Bloomberg as of 12/20/13 *Dec -13 before Fed meeting as of 12/5/13 ** Dec -13 after Fed Meeting as of 12/20/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Core Europe Has Out Performed Corporates
10 YEAR BOND YIELDS OF SELECT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Source: Bloomberg as of 12/31/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Overview of SEC Rule Proposal—Floating NAV
Prime (General Purpose) And Municipal Money Market Mutual Funds Required to Price And Transact at a Floating Net Asset Value (NAV) Out to Four Decimal Points Fund would use $ rather than $1.00 Shareholders likely to experience gains and losses Prime And Municipal Funds That Cap Shareholder Daily Redemptions at $1 Million Would Use Penny Rounding to Maintain a Stable $1.00 Share Price All Treasury And Government Money Market Mutual Funds Are Excluded Tax Concerns Wash sale Net reporting Accounting Issues Cash equivalent Implementation Period—Two Years For Institutional Client Use Only
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Overview of SEC Rule Proposal
Alternative 1: Prime & municipal funds float unless such fund restricts each shareholder daily redemption to $1m Treasury and Government funds exempt Alternative 2: When weekly liquidity of all prime and municipal funds 15% or less 2% redemption fee unless board chooses lower or no fee Board may gate redemptions for up to 30 days and may also lift gate Treasury & Government funds exempt – can voluntarily opt in Alternative 3: Earlier this month, the SEC proposed additional rules that will further reform the way MMFs are managed. Specifically, the proposal includes two principal alternative reforms that could be adopted alone or in combination. The proposal also includes additional diversification and disclosure measures that would apply under either alternative. Prime institutional MMFs would be required to transact at a floating Net Asset Value, not at a $1.00 stable share price. This alternative is designed to primarily address the heightened incentive shareholders have to redeem shares in times of financial stress. It is also intended to improve the transparency of MMFs risks through more visible valuation and pricing. MMFs would continue to transact at a stable $1.00 share price, but would be able to use liquidity fees and redemption gates to restrict redemptions in times of stress. Combines the floating NAV and the liquidity fees and gates proposals into a single reform package. Regardless of which alternative is ultimately adopted, the value proposition and the convenience of MMFs will be reduced. Investors will look for alternatives for their cash balances and one of the target areas for them will be ultra short bond funds with well-defined and monitor able risk controls. For Institutional Client Use Only
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Money Market Fund Reform Timeline
2013 Key Events Feb 2013 FSOC proposal comment deadline (extended from Jan 18) Apr 2013 SEC rule proposal issued Sept 2013 SEC comment deadline Jan 2013 Obama names Mary Jo White as SEC Chairman Feb/Mar 2013 Mary Jo White confirmed as SEC Chairman Aug 2013 Stein and Piwowar replace Walters and Paredes at SEC Future Timeline Rule Proposal Expected Q1/Q2 2014 Proposed Effective Date for Alternative 2 Q1/Q2 2015 Proposed Effective Date for Alternative 1 2016 Q1/Q2 Source: iMoneyNet and Fidelity as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Fidelity’s Position on SEC Reform Proposal
Fidelity Agrees With SEC’s Goal of Targeted Reform That Preserves Benefits of Money Market Mutual Funds For Investors Municipal Money Market Mutual Funds Should be Excluded From Both the Floating NAV and Fees and Gates Proposals Municipal funds have consistently very high weekly liquid assets and low interest rate risk Redemption patterns do not show run risk Total municipal money market is not systemic ~$250 billion Municipal money market funds provide key funding for state and local governments The Compliance Period Should be Extended to Three Years Following the Effective Date of a Final Rule For Institutional Client Use Only
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Portfolio Composition
For Institutional Client Use Only
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Focus on High Quality Issuers
NCCMT Cash Portfolio December 31, 2013 December 31, 2012 Finance GE – 0.2% TOYOTA – 1.4% North American Banks BNS – 2.4% JPM – 1.1% PNC – 0.2% TDB – 2.5% Dec 31, 2013 Asian/Australian Banks CBA – 1.0% MUFG –0.8% OVERSEA-CHINESE – 4.3% SUMITOMO – 4.1% SUMITOMO Trust -3.0% UNITED OVERSEAS – 2.2% Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: FMR as of 12/31/13 Govt/Repo BNP Paribas – 6.8% FICASH – 15.3% FNM –2.3% FHLB – 2.9% FHLMC – 5.8% UST – 2.4% For Institutional Client Use Only Eurozone BNP Paribas – 4.6% Credit AGR – 0.8% Duetsche – 1.4% Natixis – 4.0% Nordic/Swiss Banks CS – 0.4% DNB – 0.9% SEB – 0.2% SVENSKA – 1.4% SWEDBANK – 2.2% VRDN VRDN – 8.9% UK Banks BARCLAYS – 3.2% NBS – 01.1% ABCP GOTHAM – 2.0% GOVCO – 3.9% LIBERTY – 1.9% MANHATTAN – 0.4% NORTHERN PINES– 2.9% Sheffiled – 1.1%
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Foreign Bank Exposure Geographically Diversified
FOREIGN BANK HOLDINGS: NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO Source: FMR as of 12/31/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Fund Holdings Primarily Short-Term
NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO MATURITY SCHEDULE Source: FMR as of 12/31/13 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Focus on High Quality Issuers
NCCMT Term Portfolio December 31, 2013 December 31, 2012 VRDN VRDN – 3.9%% Govt/Repo FICASH – 0.7% ABCP Northern Pines – 4.8% Nov 30, 2013 North American Banks BNS – 4.5% JPM – 4.2% UK Banks BARCLAYS – 4.6% LLOYDS – 4.4% NBS – 4.4% Asian/Australian Banks ASB – 0.2% CBA – 0.2% MUFG – 2.6% SUMI – 4.6% WestPac – 1.6% Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Source: FMR as of 12/31/13 For Institutional Client Use Only Nordic/Swiss Banks CS – 4.6% DNB – 3.9% SEB – 4.5% SVENSKA – 1.5% SWEDBANK – 4.3% UBS – 4.2% Eurozone ABN AMRO – 4.4% BNP – 4.6% CREDIT AG – 4.2% Deutsche – 0.3% ING– 4.4% LANDESBANK – 4.2% Natexis – 4.7% RABO – 4.1% SOCGEN – 4.4%
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First Quarter Investment Strategy and Outlook
Preserving principal, maintaining liquidity and achieving superior risk-adjusted performance Emphasize fundamental and macro research in formulating portfolio structures Meet fund specific liquidity targets through repurchase agreements, treasuries, and agencies Optimize weighted average maturities (WAM) and weight average life (WAL) constraints to enhance NAV stability and performance Position portfolios based on our assessment of relative value across the money market yield curve within the context of our approved credits Outlook Central Banks maintain rates at extraordinarily low levels to encourage economic growth US starts tapering QE that establishes a glide path to end the program in 2014 The FOMC enhanced forward guidance extending near zero rates well past the point that unemployment reaches 6.5% so long that inflation remains below the targeted 2% threshold Supply dynamics may keep short-term rates low in the year ahead Money market supply is expected to contract by about $250 billion in 2014 led by reduction in repo and bills The Treasury’s Floating Rate Note (FRN) program is expected to issue $120 billion in 2014 The Federal Reserve’s Fixed Rate Reverse Repo should provide a floor on overnight rates Most developed markets are set to expand in 2014 Europe may be a continued source of volatility as imbalances provide sovereign financial stress Final rules on additional money market regulatory reform expected in 2014 Q2/Q3 For Institutional Client Use Only
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Important Information
Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. Lipper Analytical Services, Inc., is a nationally recognized organization that ranks the performance of mutual funds. The views expressed in this statement reflect those of the portfolio manager only through the end of the period of the report as stated on the cover and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return will fluctuate, therefore you may have a gain or loss when you sell shares. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund. Interest rate increases can cause the price of money market securities to decrease. For Institutional Investor Use only. Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design is a registered service mark of FMR LLC. Before investing, have your client consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Have your client read it carefully Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc.,500 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917 Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee. For Institutional Client Use Only
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