1. Adam Hosking and Rachel Fowler (Halcrow) smp4d@halcrow.com
Beachy Head to Selsey Bill Shoreline Management Plan Key Stakeholders Forum Policy Development Workshop November 2003
Adam Hosking and Rachel Fowler (Halcrow)

2. Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs)
The SMP is a policy document for coastal defence management planning….
…it does however need to take account of other existing planning initiatives and legislative requirements
It will inform wider strategic planning, but…..
….it will not set policy for anything other than coastal defence management
The SMP is to determine a vision for the future and a plan for managing change

3. Workshop Objectives The objectives of this Workshop are to establish:
The vision(s) of the various stakeholders for the whole SMP shoreline over each epoch, i.e. the next 20 years, 50 years, and 100+ years
Any ‘overriding drivers’ for directing future policy, and specific future policy options that the stakeholders wish to see tested
Areas of agreement and conflict
Potential scope for compromise and acceptance of future change

4. Agenda Introduction and presentation of the activities to date
Presentation of the risks and baseline scenarios
Breakout Session 1
Group discussion of conclusions from Breakout Session 1
12.50 – 13.30: Lunch
Breakout Session 2
Group discussion of conclusions from Breakout Session 2
Summing up
16.30: Close

5. Introduction and presentation of the activities to date

6. Steps in policy appraisal
Identify issues through stakeholder engagement
Identify issues through stakeholder engagement
Identify objectives
Identify objectives
Rank objectives
Rank objectives
Identify conflicts through stakeholder engagement
TODAY
Identify conflicts through stakeholder engagement
Develop policy scenarios based on policy appraisals
Test each scenario and determine impacts
Review sensitivities
Present preferred policy options

7. Initial data assessment
Activities to date
Coastal Group meeting to decide SMP approach (May 2003)
Stakeholder Engagement documents issued (August 2003)
Stakeholder feedback analysed (September 2003)
Information collected (September / October 2003)
Data Gathering
Review of Natural environment, Landscape, Heritage & Land-use (November 2003)
Assessment of coastal processes (October / November 2003)
Baseline Scenarios (October / November 2003)
Initial data assessment
Development of Issues Table (August 2003)
Meeting of KSF to review Issues (September 2003)
Stakeholder feedback incorporated (September 2003)
Objectives set and ranked (November 2003)
Define Objectives
Policy Appraisal
Draft Extended Issues Table issued to KSF (November 2003)
KSF meeting (TODAY)
Public consultation
Finalise plan

8. Issues Table Ranking within themes: Housing (H)
Location
Feature
Issues associated with feature
Affect Policy?
Why is the feature important?
Who benefits?
Location
Feature
Objective
At what scale is the benefit important?
Importance of the benefit
Is there enough of the benefit?
Can the benefit be substituted?
Rank
Ranking within themes:
Housing (H)
Commercial and agricultural property (C)
Infrastructure (roads, pipelines etc.) (I)
Recreation (R)
Natural environment (E)
Heritage (O)
Landscape (L)

9. Risks and baseline scenarios

10. Baseline scenarios An analysis of potential shoreline response has been undertaken for 2 hypothetical scenarios:
‘No Active Intervention’ – this assumes no further investment in defences (i.e effectively ‘do nothing’)
‘With Present Management’ – this assumes that present defences are maintained (regardless of cost implications)
Three time periods have been considered:
0 – 20 yrs, i.e. up to 2025
20 – 50 yrs, i.e. up to 2055
50 – 100yrs, i.e up to 2105

11. No Active Intervention Years 0 to 20 (2025)
Some coastal defences, such as seawalls and rock groynes, will remain but the timber groynes will deteriorate and fail
Beaches will narrow where seawalls remain
Groyne failure will lead to accelerated erosion of beaches and increase exposure of backing areas
Cessation of beach recycling and re-nourishment will have an immediate impact, with reduced beaches
Where unprotected, there will be continued cliff erosion
Unlikely to be significant increase in flood events but risk of breaching will be constantly increasing
Accretionary shorelines, such as Aldwick and Cuckmere are expected to continue accreting, but at a slowing rate

12. No Active Intervention Years 20 to 50 (2055)
Accelerated sea level rise will increase pressure upon the coast as a whole
Initially promontories will form along defended sections of coast, resulting in beach loss, but the majority of seawalls will fail by the end of this period
Along the western section, unconstrained shingle barrier beaches will roll landward with increased frequency of overtopping/breach and flooding
Possible breaching and reformation of existing entrances to tidal inlets
There will be reactivation of cliffs along the eastern section, which will result in some increased sediment supply to the shoreline, but this is unlikely to build beaches significantly due to rate of cliff retreat and type of sediment released

13. No Active Intervention Years 50 to 100 (2105)
All defences will have failed or deteriorated
The shoreline will have adjusted to a more naturally functioning system
There will be shoreline retreat along full frontage between Selsey Bill and Brighton Marina, due to diminishing shingle supply
There will be more frequent inundation of low-lying areas through barrier breaching, with the possibility of tidal inlets forming
At existing tidal inlets, the position of the mouth may change as spits form across the entrance
Cliff erosion will continue at an accelerated rate due to sea level rise, but this will only provide a small volume of material to feed local beaches

14. Continue Present Management Years 0 to 20 (2025)
Along much of frontage shoreline position held due to existing defences – shallow embayments will start to form along undefended sections
Increased stress on the shoreline, diminishing beaches and higher exposure to waves
Beaches in front of seawalls will lower and narrow due to coastal squeeze
Continuation of present trends of shoreline change
Cliff erosion will provide some sediment input but will not be sufficient to build beaches

15. Continue Present Management Years 20 to 50 (2055)
Increased pressure on the shoreline due to accelerated sea level rise and diminishing sediment supply
Beaches backed by seawalls, revetments and breastwork will generally be lost during this period
Where beaches are renourished, current rates would be insufficient to maintain beaches in their present state
Increased exposure to waves at these locations: less conducive to beach retention therefore increased offshore losses
Increased frequency of storm failure of barrier beaches, with flooding of hinterland
Defence works commitment increases significantly
Continued erosion of unprotected cliffs

16. Continue Present Management Years 50 to 100 (2105)
Retreat of unprotected shoreline at accelerated rates due to sea level rise – resulting in promontories forming along defended stretches of coast
Concreted coast with no beaches interspersed with area of eroding shoreline and minor beaches
No beaches in front of hard defences, only poor beaches elsewhere as sea levels rise and sediment is removed from the shoreline
Increased frequency/magnitude of barrier beach breaching and flooding – shingle barriers will become more difficult to maintain in position through present management methods
Need for much more substantial and expensive defences

17. Breakout session 1
Each Group is asked to provide a PRACTICAL VISION for the coastline over the Immediate, Medium and Long term:
Consider relative importance of your issues against other issues
Consider where there might be possible areas for compromise / acceptable change, especially where the relative importance of issues might alter over time
Feedback conclusions to the rest of the meeting, to establish where we have a degree of consensus and where conflict exists between different groups

18. Breakout session 2
For a specific geographic area, participants are asked to take account of the morning discussion to:
discuss and seek agreement on what should be the key drivers/policy options that should underpin scenario testing for that area
again, consider how these might differ over the three time-scales, i.e. Immediate (next 20 yrs), Medium (20-50 yrs) and Long-term (100 yrs)
Conclusions to be fed back to rest of the meeting for further discussion