1. Global Outlook—Supply & Demand for Wood ProductsBy
Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
Food and Agricultural Organization
UN Economic Commission for Europe
Geneva, Switzerland

2. Content World production and consumption Regional analysis
Sector analysis
Forecasts
Forests resources
UNECE Timber Committee statements
Solution options

3. Sources of info UNECE/FAO TIMBER database (forest products statistics)
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment
FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment
FAOSTAT Forestry Database website
UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletins
Timber Committee market statements

4. Forest products

5. World production of roundwood 1961-2001
Source: FAOSTAT

6. Regional production of industrial roundwood, 1961-2010
Source: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

7. Regional trade, all forest products, 1999
Source: FAOSTAT

8. American lumber consumption & production, 1980-2010
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

9. American lumber trade, 1980-2010
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

10. Europe lumber consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

11. Europe lumber trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

12. Asia lumber production & consumption outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

13. Asia lumber trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

14. America panel consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

15. America panel trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

16. Europe panel consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

17. Europe panel trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

18. Asia panel consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

19. Asia panel trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

20. America paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

21. America paper & paperboard trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

22. Europe paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

23. Europe paper & paperboard trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

24. Asia paper & paperboard consumption & production outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

25. Asia paper & paperboard trade outlook
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study

26. N. American softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

27. N. American softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

28. European softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

29. European softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

30. Russian softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

31. Russian softwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

32. N. American hardwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

33. N. American hardwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

34. European hardwood lumber market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

35. North America panel production
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

36. North American MDF market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

37. European MDF market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

38. European particleboard production
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

39. European OSB production
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

40. N. American paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

41. N. American paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

42. European paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

43. European paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

44. Russian paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

45. Russian paper market
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 9.02

46. Forest resources

47. Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000 (million hectares)
Wood Raw Materials
Annual change in forest area, (million hectares)
Deforestation
Increase in forest area
Net change in forest area
Tropics
-14.2
+1.9
-12.3
Non-tropics
-0.4
+3.3
+2.9
World
-14.6
+5.2
-9.4
Source: FRA 2000, FAO
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000

48. Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000
Africa
N & C
America
Europe
Oceania
Asia
South
America
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000

49. Forest resources in Europe
Only 60% of the wood which grows is harvested
Forests increase daily 1 million m3
Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares per year
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001;
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000;
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

50. Forest resources: growing stock
Million m3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

51. Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Million m3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

52. Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as
% of NAI
Europe-41
59%
EU-15
64%
Nordic countries
72%
Baltic countries
50%
Central & eastern Europe
56%
Russia
16%
North America
79%
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

53. Forest resources summary
Removals considerably below growth
Wide variance in utilisation rates of NAI
Growing stock increasing in Europe
Oversupply compared to demand for wood
Increasing alternative demands on forests

54. Growing too much wood. Not enough wood products demand
Growing too much wood? Not enough wood products demand? What are the solutions?

55. Grow the wood markets.
Guarantee that today’s wood products meet consumers’ needs
Develop new products to meet evolving needs
Develop new markets for wood products (substitute for non-renewable materials)

56. How can we grow the wood markets?
Through coordinated, international promotion programs
Example: the FAO-ECE Forest Communicators Network creates a positive image of the forest and forest industries sector by:
networking among members
identifying key common messages and concepts
building of PR capacity

57. FAO/UNECE Forest Communicators Network
Current network: 120 communicators from 29 countries, representing governments and private sector.
Participation open to all sharing common objectives.

58. Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002
Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review
Multi-country wood promotion essential
Objective to enlarge wood’s market share
Promotional work must be cost justified
Analyse decision making of target market
Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review,

59. Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review
Attitudes influenced by cultural and technical dimensions
Credibility is important quality
Key elements of promotional work
Competence
Neutrality
Sufficient financial resources

60. Findings on the market effects of wood promotion from Forest Products Annual Market Review
Fund raising a problem in fragmented industry
Multi-country promotions must overcome cultural differences
Wood promotion is a success story!

61. 2001 Timber Committee Market Statement
“In light of the economic downturn in 2001, the Timber Committee stated that it is imperative to develop new products to expand existing markets and to establish new markets to meet consumers’ needs.
The Committee reasserted the importance for the forest products industry to work internationally to promote the environmental advantages of the sustainable production of wood.”

62. 2001 TC Market Statement
“The Committee discussed the need to increase the wood culture in the UNECE region.
Delegates mentioned on-going national and subregional campaigns to promote the use of wood.
The Committee suggested coordinating efforts in order to achieve greater success.”

63. 2002 Timber Committee Market Statement
“Encouraged countries to work together to achieve the maximum benefits of their promotional efforts.
Multi-country promotion of the sound use of wood is important to maintain and increase wood’s market share.”

64. 2002 Timber Committee Market Statement
Many effective communication strategies can be shared through collaboration between countries, trade associations and promotional groups
These international approaches to wood promotion are important to ensure sustainable markets which are a vital component of sustainable forest management

65. Questions?
Discussion

66. Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE & FAO Timber Branch
439 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone
Fax