1. Key Facts, History and Projections
ENROLMENT SUMMARY -
Key Facts, History and Projections
Presentation to the Partnership Table May 14, 2007
May 2007

2. Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES
Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards.
ADE (average daily enrolment) used for funding purposes is collected through the financial reporting cycle.
Detailed ADE information includes full-time equivalent counts for various grade groupings – JK/SK, Grades 1 to 3, Grades 4 to 8, Secondary.
ADE is also collected for each individual school.
Other enrolment data collected by the ministry includes: headcount enrolment by individual grades and schools (elementary and secondary); elementary class size reports.
As part of the financial/fiscal planning cycle, school boards submit enrolment projections.
For the planning cycle, school boards submitted a two-year enrolment projection.
Ministry develops internal enrolment projections for its multi-year plan.
School-aged demographic trends and student retention rates are key inputs used to construct ministry's long-term projections.
Internal/Ministry projections supplement the short-term board projections.
May 2007

3. Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
May 2007

4. Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL
TOTAL (Elem + Sec) Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing 37 35 34 38 36 41 31 59 13 39 33 43 29 54 18
May 2007

5. Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
May 2007

6. Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing 43 29 37 35 42 30 52 20 59 13 56 16 63 9
May 2007

7. Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
May 2007

8. Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3)
PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3) Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing 54 18 46 26 59 13 55 17 60 12 63 9 58 14
May 2007

9. Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
May 2007

10. Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8)
JUNIOUR/INTERMEDIATE (Gr 4 to 8) Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing 31 41 32 40 26 46 27 45 37 35 49 23 55 17 62 10
May 2007

11. Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
May 2007

12. Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY
SECONDARY Enrolment History
# of School Boards
Declining
Growing 26 44 29 41 28 42 61 9 18 52 23 47
May 2007

13. Enrolment HISTORY – 2005-06 Cohorts
May 2007

14. Enrolment HISTORY – REGIONAL TRENDS
May 2007

15. Enrolment HISTORY – Board Size
May 2007

16. Enrolment PROJECTIONS – TOTAL
May 2007

17. Enrolment PROJECTIONS – ELEMENTARY
May 2007

18. Enrolment PROJECTIONS – SECONDARY
May 2007

19. Enrolment PROJECTIONS – REGIONAL TRENDS
May 2007

20. Enrolment and Demographics - PROJECTIONS
May 2007

21. Enrolment and Demographics - SUMMARY
Enrolment peaked in , has been on the decline through and is projected to decline over the next four years.
Elementary enrolment is declining and secondary enrolment is increasing.
Between and , TOTAL ADE grew by almost 50,000 – a cumulative growth of 2.5%.
Between and , TOTAL ADE declined by over 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.5%.
Over the next four year projection period ( to ), TOTAL ADE is projected to decline by about 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.6%.
An increasingly large number of boards have been experiencing declining enrolment.
Between and , 52 school boards declined; 17 of these 52 schools boards declined by at least 10%.
Between and , 56 school boards are projected to decline in enrolment; 15 of these 56 schools boards are projected to decline by at least 10%.
Over the period between and , 27 school boards are expected to decline by 15% or more; another 11 boards are expected to decline by 10-15%.
GTA is the only region projected to grow; Northern Ontario will experience the largest decline.
Demographic projections of school-aged population through year 2014 suggest:
Provincial decline is expected to continue; decline in elementary-aged cohort being the primary factor.
GTA, the only growth area in the Province between 2002 and 2006, will be the only area in the province expected to experience any marginal growth.
Northern Ontario will continue to experience the largest decline.
Central, East and South Western Ontario regions are expected to experience declines larger than their current decline.
New demographic projections, based on 2006 Census will be available in fall 2008.
May 2007

22. Discussion Questions
What planning do we need to undertake to deal with the projected enrolment changes?
What changes in policy or funding are required?
What changes in school board planning processes are required?
What is working and effective for boards with declining enrolment?
May 2007