1. 1 NC-CSC Science Workshop 2013 NC-CSC Science Workshop 2013 NC-CSC pilot: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning Andrea J. Ray, Ph.D., NOAA Earth System Research Lab Thanks to: Amy Symstad, Dominique Bachelet, P. Shafroth, L Perry, Max Post van der Burg, R. Sojda, Brant Liebmann, Joe Barsugli, Bob Means, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Dennis Ojima Andrea J. Ray, Ph.D., NOAA Earth System Research Lab Thanks to: Amy Symstad, Dominique Bachelet, P. Shafroth, L Perry, Max Post van der Burg, R. Sojda, Brant Liebmann, Joe Barsugli, Bob Means, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Dennis Ojima

2. Joint Pilot with North Central Climate Science Center Overarching goal To explore together the best available climate information to support key land management questions and how to provide that information. To develop a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products. Build capacity in the NC CSC by providing NCPPs translational information for climate data used as input to USGSbased ecological modeling 4 projects funded summer 2012. Will discuss two: – Riparian Corridors – Grasslands & Forests – Plains & Prairie Potholes – Sage Grouse Wyoming Basin REA Discussions with other LCC, CSCs, NOAA Fisheries, etc APPROACH: How are they currently using climate projections and what choices have they made? what evaluation and comparisons are the ecologists interested in, what do we think they should be interested in? 2 22

3. Indices from the Ecology literature BioClim Indices Annual Mean Temperature/Annual Precipitation Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) Max Temperature of Warmest Month Min Temperature of Coldest Month Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter/ Driest Quarter Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter/Coldest Quarter Precipitation of Wettest Month/Driest Month Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) Precipitation of Wettest Quarter/Precipitation of Driest Quarter Precipitation of Warmest Quarter/Coldest Quarter Others: Humidity Growing degree days, Chilling & forcing units Annual dryness index: (DD5)0.5/Mean Annual Ppt Palmer Drought Index, Std Precip Index (SPI) Ratio of growing season ppt to mean annual ppt Stream temperature e.g. July avg temp for trout

4. Regional Climate Futures Challenge #1 – RCM historical climate may be too wet to use as is Interpolation of met. data RegCM3 – Northern R.M. tile From A. Symstad, USGS/Wind Cave, & D. Bachelet

5. Regional Climate Futures Challenge #3 – boundary conditions cause edge effects From A. Symstad, USGS/Wind Cave, & D. Bachelet

6. Regional Climate Futures Challenge #2 – not all RCM tiles are equal The five RegCM3 model domains: Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW), Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM), Southern Rocky Mountains (SRM), and Eastern North America (ENA). PACIFIC SOUTHWEST TILE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TILE From A. Symstad, USGS/Wind Cave & D. Bachelet

7. PACIFIC SOUTHWEST TILESOUTHERN ROCKIES TILE Precipitation Temperature From A. Symstad, USGS/Wind Cave & D. Bachelet

8. Projected annual temperature and precipitation change Colorado Plateau REA region 112 downscaled runs from Maurer et al. ECHAM in pink A strength of dynamical downscaling is in the regional processes represented A con is that its computationally expensive, so few models and runs are downscaled Hostetler (USGS) downscaled one run each from ECHAM and GFDL Solution? At least look at the model runs in the context of many models Know – how does the GCM run selected compare- warmer/cooler/drier Concerns with few model runs dynamically downscaled Difference between 1968-99 climatology and 2015-30 (top) and 2045- 2060 (lower)

9. From Daniels, FAQs, Figure 5Scatterplot of change in annual average temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) projected by different GCMs for the 2040s (2030-2059) in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Triangles represent GCM simulations of the B1 emissions scenario; circles = A1B; and squares = A2. Large bold symbols represent multi-model averages for each emissions scenario (source: Littell and other 2011). Concerns with few model runs downscaled

10. Basic & Evaluating; WWA/RISA Time series Ecologists say that the sequence of years is important for many systems & interest in runs of wet/dry years Neither ensemble means or simply selecting one or a few runs is a good choice Poor choice to use just one model run from one GCM – GCMs arent intended as predictions of a sequence, but intended to generate a new climatology false sense of reality from only one or a few model runs Solution???? Were working on it….

11. The model chosen matters… often arbitrary Regional studies may select GCMs based on some evaluation of how the represent However…often arbitrary choices of models*** e.g. b/c a colleague has used it, or another Issue: *** Solution???? Theyre not wrong…different representations of future; KNOW which youre picking – could intentionally pick different climates.

12. APPROACH: How are they currently using climate projections and what choices have they made? what evaluation and comparisons are the ecologists interested in, what do we think they should be interested in? Downscale to very fine resolution, 1km – tempting b/c a lot of ecological variation/observations are at this scale -- but is the fine scale actually adding value? Meaningful? Bioclim indices – widely used, but do the 30 year averages wash out extremes and variability thats an important feature driving the ecology?? Are there better indices? Potential pitfalls for comparing studies based on one set of GCMs downscaled to studies based on another set Many different downscaling projects use different GCMs, often not easily comparted Hostetler, Rehfeldt, Mauerer, MACA/Abatzoglu/JohnA, Stamm etc and with models downscaled – Initial solution: look at the data, see how they compare to a common downscaling or each other (As with observations) Dynamic processes storm tracks, high pressure/blocking, great plains low level jet, etc Some observations

13. My list: climate science guidance & translational info 1)Downscaling, how low can you go? What meaningful information at different resolutions down, whats meaningful at 1km? Scales appropriate to regions and phenomena – and how to communicate the limits of downscaling Temperature broader scale, so likely represented better at 4-12-15km– climatology/statistics PPT varies more spatially, but statistics might be OK at those scales, and no better represented at small downscaling How do different downscaling products compare??? Maurer-Hostetler-NARCCAP 2)Time series, sequencing of years -- many ecological questions sensitive to sequence 3)Decadal outlook: whats more/less likely over in 10-20-30 years, given natural variability and trend (vs just trend) How to take advantage of new CMIP5 decadal runs, statistical methods (LIM), etc Triangulate among methods? Are we passing thresholds? 4)ET/PET & drought indicators – and projections of these Improving PET/ET in MCI ecological model Need soil moisture/dryness for vegetation type/structure/succession, fire, transition, invasives Multi-year problem Katherine discussed 5)Seasonal-interannual outlooks – for management actions in the next seasons & year or two – and how might these change in the future. Many applications, likely builds capacity for adaptation, but has been a bit left behind in CC interest

15. Challenge: Comparing results from different GCMs & their downscaling Many ecological and hydrological studies published – the basis for land & ecosystem management plans, REAs Need to know Each have made choices, sometimes arbitrary -- but how to compare results WY REA, for example wants to use Rehfeldt, but he downscaled different GCMs from Hostetler, which theyre required to consider Solution? Were comparing Hostetler & Rehfeldt downscaling for particular variables, comparing both to Maurer If the variables themselves have differences, e.g. warmer/cooler/drier, well have documented the source

16. Climate projections & gridded observational data are widely available from multiple sites -- need overall guidance, vs from each data provider However, little consistent information on evaluations, guidance on use, or translational information Many different downscaling projects use different GCMs, often not easily comparted With Hostetler, Rehfeldt, Mauerer, MACA/Abatzoglu/JohnA, Stamm etc and with models downscaled – see TABLE How to handle tis? Downscale to very fine resolution, 1km – but is the fine scale actually adding value? Meaningful? Bioclim indices – widely used, but do the 30 year averages wash out extremes and variability thats an important feature in the How to put the climate info in context relevant for the managers? Give them the same critical eye as ecological data you use – PLOT & explore the data just as you would biological data {GRAPHIC from daymet and from Laura Climate scientists need to do a better job of explaining what different products should and shouldnt be used for. Results of objective & quantitative evaluation Narratives, which may include qualitative and quantitative aspects of data use; e.g., expert guidance on the suitability of the data for an application; also narratives that provide summary information of how the climate has changed or how it will change Guidance on appropriate uses & interpretation Characterize & interpret uncertainty General observations across the projects

17. Next steps?? Many ecological and hydrological studies published – the basis for work like REAs Each have made choices, sometimes arbitrary -- but how to compare results WY REA, for example wants to use Rehfeldt, but he downscaled different GCMs from Hostetler, which theyre required to consider Were comparing Hostetler & Rehfeldt downscaling for particular variables If the variables themselves have differences, e.g. warmer/cooler/drier, well have documented the source Many sources of climate data, but most dont provide guidance or translational info

18. Climate projections & gridded observational data are widely available from multiple sites However, little consistent information on evaluations, guidance on use, or translational information Give them the same critical eye as ecological data you use – PLOT & explore the data just as you would biological data {GRAPHIC from daymet and from Laura} Climate scientists need to do a better job of explaining what different products should and shouldnt be used for. Results of objective & quantitative evaluation Narratives, which may include qualitative and quantitative aspects of data use; e.g., expert guidance on the suitability of the data for an application; also narratives that provide summary information of how the climate has changed or how it will change Guidance on appropriate uses & interpretation Characterize & interpret uncertainty Time series data into the future, using the projections as predictions The sequence of events matters for a lot of ecological studies -- Neither ensemble means or simply selecting one or a few runs is a good choice GRAPHIC Hostetler/USGS Dynamical Downscaling – being used a lot in ecological studies how do the 3 GCM selected runs compare {GRAPHIC} Consider this for any GCMS your project is using Comparing results among available analysis projects situate one or more models in the context of others (Lukas Mauer plots) General questions/needs across the projects

19. Challenge: Comparing results from different GCMs & their downscaling Many ecological and hydrological studies published – the basis for work like REAs Each have made choices, sometimes arbitrary -- but how to compare climate results to inform ecological questions? WY REA, for example wants to use Rehfeldt, but he downscaled different GCMs from Hostetler, which theyre required to consider Solution? Were comparing Hostetler & Rehfeldt downscaling for particular variables – and comparing both to Maurer If the variables themselves have differences, e.g. warmer/cooler/drier, well have documented the source Another solution: Consider products that have been used/evaluated in many projects Statistical products: Maurer – the basis for the Reclamation SECURE Water Act report,and extensively analyzed – IMHO the gold standard for now – downscaled many GCMS and ensemble members/GCM; has been run thru a hydrologic model, so available for hydroclimate variables; already being used in DOI policy & planning. Available from several portals, with visualization tools Climate Wizard, GeoDataPortal Other options: Hayhoes downscaling to stations & other products, used in the National Climate Assessment; WorldClim – widely used, less evaluated Dynamical products covering North America NARCCAP, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, http://www.narccap.ucar.edu. IMHO the gold standard for now – 6 GCMs and multiple RCMs; used in the 2013 National Climate Assessment http://www.narccap.ucar.edu Other options: Hostetler, aka USGS Dynamical downscaling, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1238/; http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu; caveat: only 3 GCMs, 1RCM; BLM requiring its use in REAs* http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1238/http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu

20. 20 Climate Predictions Applications Workshop 24 April 2013 Logan, UT Climate Predictions Applications Workshop 24 April 2013 Logan, UT Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning: ESRL/PSD activities Andrea J. Ray, Ph.D., Jeffrey T. Morisette, Dennis Ojima NOAA Earth System Research Lab, NC-CSC, CSU. Thanks to: Amy Symstad, Donimique Bachelet, P. Shafroth, L Perry, Max Post Van der Berg, Brant Liebmann, Joe Barsugli, Jeff Morisette, Dennis Ojima Andrea J. Ray, Ph.D., Jeffrey T. Morisette, Dennis Ojima NOAA Earth System Research Lab, NC-CSC, CSU. Thanks to: Amy Symstad, Donimique Bachelet, P. Shafroth, L Perry, Max Post Van der Berg, Brant Liebmann, Joe Barsugli, Jeff Morisette, Dennis Ojima

21. EXTRAS

22. Tiles Ecologists Edge effects Solution????

23. Ecological Response Models DOI Management Objectives/Goals Climate data based on results of objective, quantitative evaluation Document challenges and decisions made in determining apppropriate information to use Develop translational information based on iteration with NC-CSC Proposals are publicly available at: http://www.doi.gov/csc/northcentral/NCPP-Pilot-Project.cfm 23 Precip run-off (PRMS) Phenology (UniForc) Seed recruitment (HECEFM) Landscape level (MC-1) Habitat Niche modeling Adaptive management Structure decision making & value of information Joint Pilot Climate and Ecological Integrated Modeling

24. 24 Grasslands & forests (Symstad, Bachelet, ) Much of the NGP is uncultivated, habitat for grassland specialists. Woody encroachment is a serious issue on the edges of the region. CO 2 fertilization may make region more conducive to tree growth, especially in absence of fire. Climate projection issues availability and reliability of full time series bias correction methods RCM tile inconsistencies PET calculation Downscaling RegCM3 output for Northern Great Plains area (Hostetler) Comparisons of values for tile overlap areas

25. Cottonwood and willow seed dispersal typically occurs during or just after snowmelt peak flows What are the chances that seeds will land on bare, moist surfaces along rivers - created by floods, and exposed by flood recession Seed dispersal during or just after the spring flood = exposed, bare, moist soil in the recruitment band Too high: dessicate Too low, scoured away just right Base flow Recruitment band Too high – drought stress Too low – ice and flood scour Receding spring flood

26. Connecting the science to ecology/landscape in a meaningful and scientifically defensible way Key issues – Observational data: how to best use in situ data? – What can we say about precipitation? – How do we account for elevation ranges – Be explicit about what were confident about, and unresolved issues Overall objective is to develop Reasonably Foreseeable Climate Scenarios (RFCS), based on analysis and comparison among several climate projection datasets and to compare the RFCS to the historic period for the region Goals: – Relate to conservation elements – Shifts vegetation classes, e.g. from semi- desert shrub steppe to shrublands? – Assess Key Ecological Attributes WY Basin REA

27. Fort Collins, Colorado March 7, 2013 EPA logo Down-scaled climate data in current conditions

28. DRAFT Ecologists Edge effects Solution????

29. Basic & applied climate science: often at the technical interface between researchers and problems faced by managers Evaluating climate models – how well climate features are simulated & confidence e.g. seasonal snowpack, hydrology, storm tracks, changes in extremes Climate diagnostics: provide an explanation of evolving conditions, e.g. seasonal anomalies, heat waves, Hurricane Sandy, Texas drought, Missouri river flooding; Assess predictability Use-inspired science: Climate & Fisheries; Arctic Impacts Assessment; drought; Partners: NC-CSC, NMFS, FWS,NIDIS, universities, WWA/RISA, TNC Guidance & climate analysis: Sage brush/sage grouse, prairie potholes, grasslands; Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment. BLM, NC-CSC, TNC Hydroclimate studies: climate & water management; projections of climate change on river flows/water supply, partners: Reclamation, Army Corps, Western Utility Climate Alliance; WWA/RISA Emerging topics: dust on snow; decadal predictions Synthesis & Assessment: of existing science & often new analysis to inform specific policy & decisionmaking processes 2012 National Assessments for several regions/topics & 2009 CCSP synthesis documents (SAPs) – as authors, contributors, reviewers FWS Status review of the American pika, Ochotona sp, 2010 Climate change in Colorado to support Water Management, 2008 Appendix U hydroclimate science for the DOI EIS for Colorado River Interim Guidelines 2007 NOAA/PSD Climate Science in the Intermountain West

30. North Central Regional Example What NOAA capabilities were applied? – Evaluate &provide guidance on best practices on model use and downscaling approaches – Efforts to translate & contextualize the climate information for various DOI & LCC decision contexts – Builds on NOAA and NOAA-funded research at labs and universities; RISA experience on understanding climate needs – The USGS Geodata portal is an NCPP partner Address common ground with the LCC mission by – Leverage resources and strategically target science to inform conservation actions, in particular by supporting vulnerability assessment for climate change – Three projects have landscape level focus risk framework, each directed at management goals identified by DOI and several LCC partners; 4 th project assesses the value of climate information for supporting management decisions within the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC

31. North Central Pilot Project with NOAAs National Climate Projection program Woody Encroachment, Riparian Corridors Sage Brush/Sage Grouse Plains & Prairie Potholes

32. Hadley Cells George Hadley, 1700s Simple Theory Explains – N-S movement of air near equator – Trade winds blow from NE/SE – Deserts at 30 N/S Latitude – Areas of heavy rain at Equator – Location of Subtropical Jet Note: major UK Modeling Center named after Hadley Hadley Cell projected to intensify and expand northward

33. 33 Joint Pilot Projects have landscape level focus, risk framework, directed at identified management goals of DOI & LCC partners: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests (Shafroth et al., USGS Fort Collins Science Center) Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability: A collaboration for Greater Sage- Grouse and their habitats (Sojda et al., USGS Northern Rockies Science Center) Grasslands & Forests: Projecting Future Effects of Land Management, Natural Disturbance, and CO2 on Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains in a Changing Climate (Symstad et al., USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center & Oregon State ) Assess the value of climate information for supporting management decisions within the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC (Post van der Burg et al., USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center & Fort Collins Science Ctr.)

34. Scale – temporal and spatial Downscale to very fine resolution, 1km – but is the fine scale actually adding value? Meaningful? Bioclim indices – widely used, but do the 30 year averages wash out extremes and variability thats an important feature in the Climate often used uncritically Table with hostetler, rehfeldt, mauerer, MACA/Abatzoglu,Stamm etc and whith models downscaled Ecologists questions