1. Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, China
Consumption Based Carbon Accounting systems and global carbon flows: impacts on national and global climate policies
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Cambridge Econometrics
Addressing Consumption-based Emissions: A Chinese Perspective
10th November 2015
Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, China

2. Climate policy
Doha Amendments > 2020
Paris Agreement (INDCs) >
Marrakesh (?)…. (?) > 2030….
CBDR-RC – historical and traded

3. Emissions trends

4. Emissions trends

5. Emissions trends

6. Historic trend - US

7. Historic trend - US and EU-15
OECD territorial p.c. emissions now back to level of 1960s; consumption footprint emissions c 10% below 2008

8. Historic trend - US, EU-15 and China
China territorial per-cap equals EU-15, of
today and 1960!

9. Historic trend -
US, EU-15, China,
Mexico and Brazil

10. Expected outcome
A policy portfolio of consumption-based policies that shifts the burden back to developed countries and results in reduction of production and consumption based emissions in developing countries

11. Expected outcome
Additional to production-based/more traditional polices and national commitments

12. Models
FIDELIO (IPTS, Spain) a dynamic econometric input-output model based on Eurostat's supply and use tables and the WIOD

13. Models
EXIOMOD (TNO, Netherlands) a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on detailed EXIOBASE MREEIO

14. Models
E3ME (Cambridge Econometrics, UK) macroeconometric energy-environment-economy (E3) model

15. Scenarios 2020- 2050: Reference scenarios
IEA WEO 2014 current policies
IEA WEO 2014 current policies + Paris COP21 pledges (INDCs)

16. Scenarios 2020- 2050: Policy scenarios – indirect (supply chain)
indirect + direct emissions (end use related emissions)

17. Scenarios 2020- 2050 will give us:
Outputs,
changes in GDP,
Employment,
trade,
investment,
recourse use,
GHG and non-GHG emissions

18. Emissions

19. Policy issues
No accounting standards for consumption based emissions

20. Policy issues
No monitoring, reporting and verification
Current methods (differences <30%)

21. Thank You! aak@camecon.com