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Deaths in road traffic – a grossly underemphasized public health problem
Leonard Evans President-Emeritus, ITMA (International Traffic Medicine Association) Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA Wed. 31 Oct, 2018 9:00 am ITMA 2018 Thank you, I am truly happy to be here on my 3rd trip to Brazil. Previous May 1994 (13th Iaatm) and Oct 1998 (Brasilia) But unfortunatelly, the subject, which is the focus of our ITMA meeting, is not a happy one - deaths and injuries in traffic.
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1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads
Harm from traffic 1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads Victims mainly healthy, young Injures >> fatalities 2
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
178 China 261,367 180 India 238,562 179 Brazil 46,935 178 Indonesia 38,279 177 Nigeria 35,621 176 United States 34,064 175 Russia 27,025 174 Pakistan 25,781 173 Iran 24,896 172 Thailand 24,237 171 Ethiopia 23,837 170 Vietnam 22,419 169 Democratic Republic of the Congo 22,419 168 Bangladesh 21,316 167 Tanzania 16,211 166 Mexico 15,062 3
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities Country Total fatalities Year, data source latest year (standard source: figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] 178 China 261, 177 India 238, 176 Brazil 46, 175 Indonesia 38, 174 Nigeria 35, 173 United States 34, 172 Russia 27, 171 Pakistan 25, 170 Iran 24, 169 Thailand 24, 168 Ethiopia 23, 167 Democratic Republic of the Congo 22, 166 Vietnam 22, 165 Bangladesh 21, 164 Tanzania 16, 163 Mexico 15, 162 South Africa 13, 161 Kenya 12, 160 Myanmar 10, 159 Egypt 10, 158 Philippines 10, 157 Uganda 10, 156 Sudan 9, 155 Mozambique 8, 154 Colombia 8, 153 Saudi Arabia 7, 152 Malaysia 7, 151 Morocco 6, 150 Iraq 6, 149 Ghana 6, 148 Turkey 6, 147 Madagascar 6, 146 Cameroon 6, 145 Japan 5, 144 Angola 5, 143 Malawi 5, 142 Argentina 141 Yemen 5, 140 Ukraine 5, [17] 139 Burkina Faso 5, 138 Ivory Coast 4, 137 South Korea 4, [12] 136 Nepal 4, 135 Niger 4, 134 Libya 4, 133 Peru 4, 132 Zimbabwe 3, 131 Kazakhstan 3, 130 Poland 3, 129 Mali 3, 128 Senegal 3, 127 Rwanda 3, 126 Italy 3, 125 Sri Lanka 3, 124 Zambia 3, 123 Germany 3, 122 Bolivia 3, 121 France 3, 120 Uzbekistan 3, 119 Guinea 3, 118 Ecuador 3, 117 Chad 3, 116 Dominican Republic 3, 115 Guatemala 2, 114 Benin 2, 113 Tunisia 2, 112 Somalia 2, 111 Cambodia 2, 110 Chile 2, 109 Togo 2, 108 Canada 2, 107 Jordan 1, 106 Romania 1, 105 United Kingdom 1, 104 Spain 1, 103 Sierra Leone 1, 102 Taiwan 1, [16] 101 Tajikistan 1, 100 Eritrea 1, 99 Central African Republic 1, 98 Liberia 1, 97 Honduras 1, 96 Paraguay 1, 95 El Salvador 1, 94 Belarus 1, 93 Australia 1, 92 Papua New Guinea 1, 91 Kyrgyzstan 1, 90 Congo 1, 89 Lebanon 1, 88 United Arab Emirates 1, 87 Greece 1, 86 Laos 85 Mauritania 84 Azerbaijan 83 Nicaragua 82 Oman 81 Turkmenistan 80 Cuba 79 Portugal 78 Hungary 77 Belgium 76 Serbia 75 Bosnia and Herzegovina 74 Costa Rica 73 Czech Republic 72 Kuwait 71 Bulgaria 70 Mongolia 69 Lesotho 68 Netherlands 67 Uruguay 66 Namibia 65 Armenia 64 Gambia 63 Georgia 62 Botswana 61 Guinea-Bissau 60 Austria 59 Republic of Moldova 58 New Zealand [10] 57 Croatia 56 Panama 55 Gabon 54 Slovakia 53 Qatar 52 Jamaica 51 Lithuania 50 Swaziland 49 Israel 48 Sweden 47 Finland 46 Djibouti 45 Switzerland [13][14][15] 44 Latvia 43 Macedonia 42 Singapore 41 Denmark 40 Trinidad and Tobago 39 Ireland 38 Timor-Leste 37 Mauritius 36 Guyana 35 Slovenia 34 Cape Verde 33 Bhutan 32 Norway [11] 31 Solomon Islands 30 Bahrain 29 Suriname 28 Estonia 27 Belize 26 Montenegro [7] 25 São Tomé and Príncipe 24 Cyprus 23 Bahamas 22 Fiji 21 Luxembourg 20 Vanuatu 19 Saint Lucia 18 Samoa 17 Malta 16 Barbados 15 Iceland 14 Maldives 13 Dominica 12 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 11 Seychelles 10 Tonga 9 Andorra 8 Antigua & Barbuda 7 Cook Islands 6 Kiribati 5 Marshall Islands 4 Federated States of Micronesia 3 Palau 2 San Marino 1 Monaco 4
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 178 China 261,367 180 India 238,562 179 Brazil 46,935 178 Indonesia 38,279 177 Nigeria 35,621 176 United States 34,064 175 Russia 27,025 174 Pakistan 25,781 173 Iran 24,896 172 Thailand 24,237 171 Ethiopia 23,837 170 Vietnam 22,419 169 Democratic Republic of the Congo 22,419 168 Bangladesh 21,316 167 Tanzania 16,211 166 Mexico 15,062 5
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 6
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 7
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 8
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 9
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 10
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 11
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 USA 34,064 12
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 USA 34,064 172 Russia 27,025 171 Pakistan 25,781 13
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WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 170 Iran 24,896 177 India 238,562 169 Thailand 24,237 176 Brazil 46,935 168 Ethiopia 23,837 175 Indonesia 38,279 167 Congo 22,419 174 Nigeria 35,621 166 Vietnam 173 USA 34,064 165 Bangladesh 21,316 172 Russia 27,025 164 Tanzania 16,211 171 Pakistan 25,781 163 Mexico 15,062 14
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 San Marino – 1 fatait Country Road fatalities Road fatalities Total fatalities Year, data source per 100,000 per 1 billion latest year (standard source: motor vehicles[4] vehicle-km[5] (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) 1 San Marino 1.8 n/a 2 Norway 3.1 n/a [11] 3 Switzerland [13][14][15] 4 Finland 5 Sweden 6 United Kingdom 7 Spain 8 Netherlands 9 Iceland 10 Japan 11 Denmark 12 Germany 13 Malta 6.8 n/a 14 Austria 15 Australia 16 Italy 7.3 n/a 17 France 18 Ireland 19 Andorra 7.9 n/a 20 Czech Republic 21 Cyprus 9.2 n/a 22 Canada 23 Slovenia 24 Israel 25 Belgium 26 Luxembourg 10.7 n/a 27 Estonia 11.8 n/a 28 New Zealand [9] [10] 29 Greece 12.6 n/a 30 United States 31 Portugal 13.7 n/a 32 Slovakia 13.7 n/a 33 Palau 14.1 n/a 34 Poland 15.8 n/a 35 Lithuania 16.1 n/a 36 Barbados 16.9 n/a 37 Bulgaria 17.2 n/a 38 Armenia 18.2 n/a 39 Maldives 19.5 n/a 40 Bahrain 19.6 n/a 41 Antigua & Barbuda 20 n/a 42 Singapore 20.2 n/a 43 South Korea [12] 44 Hungary 20.7 n/a 45 Croatia 21.1 n/a 46 Federated States of Micronesia 24 n/a 47 Argentina 24.3 n/a 48 Latvia 24.8 n/a 49 Belize 26 n/a 50 Uruguay 28.5 n/a 51 Malaysia 52 Montenegro 31.1 n/a [7] 53 Romania 31.4 n/a 54 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 31.7 n/a 55 Belarus 32.9 n/a 56 Kuwait 34.2 n/a 57 Serbia 34.5 n/a 58 Ukraine 35.3 n/a [17] 59 Mauritius 35.6 n/a 60 Bahamas 36 n/a 61 Indonesia 36.7 n/a 62 Turkey 37.3 n/a 63 United Arab Emirates 38.2 n/a 64 Costa Rica 38.4 n/a 65 Panama 38.4 n/a 66 Cook Islands 40.2 n/a 67 Mexico 43 n/a 68 Seychelles 43 n/a 69 Dominica 44.7 n/a 70 Macedonia 49.1 n/a 71 Suriname 49.7 n/a 72 Qatar 50.9 n/a 73 Chile 51.1 n/a 74 Russia 53.4 n/a 75 Georgia 54 n/a 76 Vietnam 55 n/a 77 Brazil 57.5 n/a 78 Fiji 58.9 n/a 79 Trinidad and Tobago 58.9 n/a 80 Jamaica 61.7 n/a 81 Republic of Moldova 61.8 n/a 82 Lebanon 64.8 n/a 83 Laos 67.5 n/a 84 Sri Lanka 70.9 n/a 85 Thailand 74.6 n/a 86 Bosnia and Herzegovina 76.7 n/a 87 Azerbaijan 83 n/a 88 Colombia 83.3 n/a 89 Oman 85.3 n/a 90 Kiribati 86.9 n/a 91 Mongolia 88.4 n/a 92 Botswana 91.6 n/a 93 Iran 92.7 n/a 94 Dominican Republic 94.9 n/a 95 Tonga 98.1 n/a 96 Peru 99.3 n/a 97 Kazakhstan n/a 98 China n/a 99 Cambodia n/a 100 Turkmenistan n/a 101 Guatemala n/a 102 Paraguay n/a 103 Saudi Arabia n/a 104 Kyrgyzstan n/a 105 Libya n/a 106 India n/a 107 Liberia n/a 108 Cuba n/a 109 South Africa n/a 110 Philippines 135 n/a 111 Marshall Islands n/a 112 Egypt n/a 113 Iraq n/a 114 Jordan n/a 115 Tunisia n/a 116 El Salvador n/a 117 Nicaragua n/a 118 Bhutan n/a 119 Samoa n/a 120 Ecuador n/a 121 Gabon n/a 122 Namibia n/a 123 Bolivia n/a 124 Morocco 209 n/a 125 Mauritania n/a 126 Cape Verde 229 n/a 127 Solomon Islands 240 n/a 128 Myanmar n/a 129 Pakistan n/a 130 Timor-Leste n/a 131 Vanuatu 300 n/a 132 Burkina Faso n/a 133 Tajikistan n/a 134 Nepal n/a 135 Zimbabwe n/a 136 Yemen n/a 137 Ghana n/a 138 Lesotho n/a 139 Chad 497 n/a 140 Nigeria n/a 141 Kenya n/a 142 Zambia n/a 143 Guinea-Bissau n/a 144 Ivory Coast n/a 145 Uganda n/a 146 Guyana n/a 147 Senegal n/a 148 Angola 992 n/a 149 Gambia n/a 150 Bangladesh n/a 151 Honduras n/a 152 Congo 1063 n/a 153 Tanzania n/a 154 Papua New Guinea n/a 155 Malawi n/a 156 Mali n/a 157 Cameroon n/a 158 Niger n/a 159 Mozambique 1507 n/a 160 Swaziland n/a 161 Saint Lucia n/a 162 Eritrea n/a 163 Sierra Leone n/a 164 Sudan n/a 165 Madagascar 2963 n/a 166 Rwanda n/a 167 Togo n/a 168 Central African Republic n/a 169 Somalia n/a 170 Ethiopia n/a 171 São Tomé and Príncipe n/a 172 Democratic Republic of the Congo n/a 173 Benin n/a 174 Guinea n/a 175 Monaco - n/a 176 Djibouti n/a n/a 177 Taiwan n/a n/a [16] 178 Uzbekistan n/a
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 106 India 130.1 30 USA 12.9
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Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 106 India 130.1 30 USA 12.9 129 Pakistan 283.9 14 Mexico rate 14 times Norwegian Country Road fatalities Road fatalities Total fatalities Year, data source per 100,000 per 1 billion latest year (standard source: motor vehicles[4] vehicle-km[5] (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) 1 San Marino 1.8 n/a 2 Norway 3.1 n/a [11] 3 Switzerland [13][14][15] 4 Finland 5 Sweden 6 United Kingdom 7 Spain 8 Netherlands 9 Iceland 10 Japan 11 Denmark 12 Germany 13 Malta 6.8 n/a 14 Austria 15 Australia 16 Italy 7.3 n/a 17 France 18 Ireland 19 Andorra 7.9 n/a 20 Czech Republic 21 Cyprus 9.2 n/a 22 Canada 23 Slovenia 24 Israel 25 Belgium 26 Luxembourg 10.7 n/a 27 Estonia 11.8 n/a 28 New Zealand [9] [10] 29 Greece 12.6 n/a 30 United States 31 Portugal 13.7 n/a 32 Slovakia 13.7 n/a 33 Palau 14.1 n/a 34 Poland 15.8 n/a 35 Lithuania 16.1 n/a 36 Barbados 16.9 n/a 37 Bulgaria 17.2 n/a 38 Armenia 18.2 n/a 39 Maldives 19.5 n/a 40 Bahrain 19.6 n/a 41 Antigua & Barbuda 20 n/a 42 Singapore 20.2 n/a 43 South Korea [12] 44 Hungary 20.7 n/a 45 Croatia 21.1 n/a 46 Federated States of Micronesia 24 n/a 47 Argentina 24.3 n/a 48 Latvia 24.8 n/a 49 Belize 26 n/a 50 Uruguay 28.5 n/a 51 Malaysia 52 Montenegro 31.1 n/a [7] 53 Romania 31.4 n/a 54 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 31.7 n/a 55 Belarus 32.9 n/a 56 Kuwait 34.2 n/a 57 Serbia 34.5 n/a 58 Ukraine 35.3 n/a [17] 59 Mauritius 35.6 n/a 60 Bahamas 36 n/a 61 Indonesia 36.7 n/a 62 Turkey 37.3 n/a 63 United Arab Emirates 38.2 n/a 64 Costa Rica 38.4 n/a 65 Panama 38.4 n/a 66 Cook Islands 40.2 n/a 67 Mexico 43 n/a 68 Seychelles 43 n/a 69 Dominica 44.7 n/a 70 Macedonia 49.1 n/a 71 Suriname 49.7 n/a 72 Qatar 50.9 n/a 73 Chile 51.1 n/a 74 Russia 53.4 n/a 75 Georgia 54 n/a 76 Vietnam 55 n/a 77 Brazil 57.5 n/a 78 Fiji 58.9 n/a 79 Trinidad and Tobago 58.9 n/a 80 Jamaica 61.7 n/a 81 Republic of Moldova 61.8 n/a 82 Lebanon 64.8 n/a 83 Laos 67.5 n/a 84 Sri Lanka 70.9 n/a 85 Thailand 74.6 n/a 86 Bosnia and Herzegovina 76.7 n/a 87 Azerbaijan 83 n/a 88 Colombia 83.3 n/a 89 Oman 85.3 n/a 90 Kiribati 86.9 n/a 91 Mongolia 88.4 n/a 92 Botswana 91.6 n/a 93 Iran 92.7 n/a 94 Dominican Republic 94.9 n/a 95 Tonga 98.1 n/a 96 Peru 99.3 n/a 97 Kazakhstan n/a 98 China n/a 99 Cambodia n/a 100 Turkmenistan n/a 101 Guatemala n/a 102 Paraguay n/a 103 Saudi Arabia n/a 104 Kyrgyzstan n/a 105 Libya n/a 106 India n/a 107 Liberia n/a 108 Cuba n/a 109 South Africa n/a 110 Philippines 135 n/a 111 Marshall Islands n/a 112 Egypt n/a 113 Iraq n/a 114 Jordan n/a 115 Tunisia n/a 116 El Salvador n/a 117 Nicaragua n/a 118 Bhutan n/a 119 Samoa n/a 120 Ecuador n/a 121 Gabon n/a 122 Namibia n/a 123 Bolivia n/a 124 Morocco 209 n/a 125 Mauritania n/a 126 Cape Verde 229 n/a 127 Solomon Islands 240 n/a 128 Myanmar n/a 129 Pakistan n/a 130 Timor-Leste n/a 131 Vanuatu 300 n/a 132 Burkina Faso n/a 133 Tajikistan n/a 134 Nepal n/a 135 Zimbabwe n/a 136 Yemen n/a 137 Ghana n/a 138 Lesotho n/a 139 Chad 497 n/a 140 Nigeria n/a 141 Kenya n/a 142 Zambia n/a 143 Guinea-Bissau n/a 144 Ivory Coast n/a 145 Uganda n/a 146 Guyana n/a 147 Senegal n/a 148 Angola 992 n/a 149 Gambia n/a 150 Bangladesh n/a 151 Honduras n/a 152 Congo 1063 n/a 153 Tanzania n/a 154 Papua New Guinea n/a 155 Malawi n/a 156 Mali n/a 157 Cameroon n/a 158 Niger n/a 159 Mozambique 1507 n/a 160 Swaziland n/a 161 Saint Lucia n/a 162 Eritrea n/a 163 Sierra Leone n/a 164 Sudan n/a 165 Madagascar 2963 n/a 166 Rwanda n/a 167 Togo n/a 168 Central African Republic n/a 169 Somalia n/a 170 Ethiopia n/a 171 São Tomé and Príncipe n/a 172 Democratic Republic of the Congo n/a 173 Benin n/a 174 Guinea n/a 175 Monaco - n/a 176 Djibouti n/a n/a 177 Taiwan n/a n/a [16] 178 Uzbekistan n/a
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Focus is on fatalities — by far, the most reliable data
How can Brazil’s 46 thousand annual deaths be reduced? Scientific analysis of problem - requires quality data Learn from other countries USA experience is unique 30 30
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Fatalities in a given year Maximum yearly fatalities
Because fatalities reach a maximum, we can define a simple ratio: Fatalities in a given year Maximum yearly fatalities Advantages over traditional measures: Dimensionless (no units) No arbitrary assumptions Compares each country’s performance to its own past Depends ONLY on fatalities 35
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Data from International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)
Original file had data for 32 OECD jurisdictions Use data from same 26 countries as in my 2014 AJPH paper 36
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Data from International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)
Original file had data for 32 OECD* jurisdictions Use data from same 26 countries as in my 2014 AJPH paper *Brazil not included – I suspect reliable long time series is unavailable 37
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37,461 in 2016
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37,461 in 2016 (68% of max.) 44 years after maximum
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maximum value 54,589 in 1972
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Dropped to 68% of max 44 years after reaching max
maximum value 54,589 in 1972 Dropped to 68% of max 44 years after reaching max
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for 25 other countries, compare declines from their maxima to US decline to 68%
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for 25 other countries, compare declines from their maxima to US decline to 68%
Introduce countries in order of increasing safety
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Cut fatalities in half
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32.0
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22.8
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