1. 2010 Hurricane Season Update

2. NHC Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
85% chance of above normal season
14-23 Named Storms
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
Weakening El Niño – Strengthening La Niña
Probability of strike on the East Coast is irrelevant
It only takes one storm to cause a disaster, regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlook.

3. Tropical Weather Watches/Warnings
2010 Hurricane Season
Pre-2010 Hurricane Season
Watches & Warnings now issued 12 hours sooner
Tropical storm watches issued when conditions possible within 48 hours
Tropical storm warnings issued when conditions possible within 36 hours
Hurricane watches issued when conditions possible within 48 hours
Hurricane warnings issued when conditions possible within 36 hours
Tropical storm watches issued when conditions possible within 36 hours
Tropical storm warnings issued when conditions possible within 24 hours
Hurricane watches issued when conditions possible within 36 hours
Hurricane warnings issued when conditions possible within 24 hours

5. What’s going on in Hampton Roads?
Conducting Regional Catastrophic Planning through a DHS grant
Provided updated behavioral study for the region
Large # people want to go to Northern VA
Large # of people who will evacuate that don’t need to evacuate
New focus on stressing alternate evacuation routes, other than I-64
New focus on educating public on when to evacuate and when to shelter in place
Working with localities in the region to identify additional refuge of last resort and shelter sites in the region

6. Changes in State Evacuation Plan
No more phased evacuation from the Hampton Roads region
Lane reversal may be implemented at Category 2 (was Cat. 3)
Enhancing state resources along I-64 corridor
Revamping public education and outreach in the HR region
Facilitating more meetings between HR and inland localities

7. While cities and counties issue standard evacuation orders, only the governor can issue the order for an I-64 lane reversal. The I-64 reversal plan begins just east of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel at mile marker 273 and ends at the Interstate 295 interchange east of Richmond at mile marker 200. (In addition to hurricanes, I-64 might be reversed for other emergencies at the discretion of the governor.)
In the event of lane reversal on I-64:
• No traffic will be allowed to travel east on the interstate. All I-64 eastbound lanes and ramps between Norfolk and Richmond will be closed to eastbound traffic, from just east of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel to I-295 east of Richmond.
• The entrance to the reversed lanes on I-64 is in Norfolk, just east of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel, at mile marker 273. Motorists will continue traveling on the eastbound lanes until they exit I-64 or until they reach I-295 east of Richmond. All traffic entering I-64 west of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel will travel in the westbound lanes.
• There will be only two possible exits for traffic traveling on the reversed lanes between Norfolk and I-295: Exit 234 in Williamsburg (Route 199) for gas, food, lodging and hospital and Exit 205 in Bottoms Bridge for gas and food. Without exiting, motorists can access a comfort station on I-64 near Jefferson Avenue (mile marker 255) and the safety rest areas in New Kent County.
• Motorists exiting the reversed lanes at Exit 234 or Exit 205 cannot re-enter the reversed lanes. Once motorists exit the reversed lanes, they can re-enter I-64 using the normal I-64 westbound ramps.
• All traffic traveling in the westbound lanes of I-64 can exit and enter the interstate as they normally would, though some entrance and exit ramps could be closed for traffic control.

10. For example, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers
Evacuation Study estimates that the clearance time for the most vulnerable areas of the
Hampton Roads Region during the tourist season would be approximately 61 hours without
the use of Lane Reversal and approximately 38 hours utilizing Lane Reversal in a worst case
scenario

11. What that breaks down to is…
Total Population on I-64
Low Seasonal Occupancy
High Seasonal Occupancy
Category 1
24,284
29,069
Category 2
55,148
62,387
Category 3
94,202
101,855
Category 4
174,561
182,577
Total # of Vehicles on High Seasonal Occupancy
(avg. of 2 people per vehicle)
Category 1
49,608
Category 2
132,272
Category 3
229,395
Category 4
402,752

12. State efforts along I-64
VDOT Safety Service Patrols on I-64 to provide basic motorist assistance on the road or at the rest areas and comfort station
Tow trucks on standby along I-64 to move disabled vehicles to the grassy shoulder area to keep travel lanes open
Vans on standby to take stranded motorists to the closest available shelter
Drinking water at the New Kent County safety rest areas, at the Jefferson Avenue comfort station on I-64 (mile marker 255)
The Richmond Metropolitan Convention and Visitor’s Bureau will have a toll-free number motorists can call for assistance to find lodging in the Richmond area and beyond. That number is (800) or (804)

13. Populations in the Surge Areas in the Hampton Roads Region
The U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) report indicated the shelter space was generally adequate in the coastal areas for the
demand of a CAT 1 and CAT 2 sheltering event. Most shelters are operated under American Red Cross (ARC) Guidelines and this has resulted in a shelter deficiency within the Hampton Roads area for CAT 3 and CAT 4 events. (See Basic Plan pg 11 – Hurricane Evacuation Study Locality Data)
The vulnerable population at risk and which should be evacuated in the event of a worst-case Category 4 hurricane is defined, for planning purposes, as those persons along the coast in the preidentified storm surge inundation areas and any residential structure that may be at risk from hurricane force winds.
B. The initial stage of an evacuation of the Hampton Roads area is voluntary. Residents and tourists will be informed no later than 48 hours prior to the arrival of sustained tropical storm force winds that a hurricane is forecasted to affect the area, and will be encouraged to evacuate.
C. The total number of individuals potentially at risk from a life-threatening Category 4 storm is estimated at just fewer than 1.2 million during high tourist season.

14. Worst Case Scenario (Cat 4)
1.2M located in high risk area (prone to storm surge)
~900K expected to evacuate
~500K expected to evacuate in a Cat 3 storm
Approximately 10% will seek public shelter
~90K for Cat 4
~50K for Cat 3
State has identified ~20K emergency shelter beds in state-owned facilities
Hampton Roads can largely accommodate most sheltering needs for Cat 1 and Cat 2; significant deficits noted for Cat 3 storms; severe deficits for Cat 4

15. Questions?