1. Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaiis Anchialine Pool Ecosystems Lisa Marrack UC Berkeley Ala Kahakai National Historical Park

2. Sea Level Rise Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009) Observed

3. Water Withdrawal and Non-Point Source Pollution http:/www.yfrog.com/gzt4wyrj Coastal inundation Storm run up Habitat shifts Alii Drive, Kona, HI March 11, 2011 Predicted Impacts

4. Figure by: Jonathan D. Craft, Auburn University Anchialine Pools Scott Santos

5. The Spirit of Kaloko-Honokohau Cultural and Natural Resources Megalagrion xanthomelas Metabetaeus lohena & Halocaridina rubra

6. Questions What coastal features will be inundated by 2100 along the west coast of Hawaii due to a 1 meter sea level rise? Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge within the arid coastline of west Hawaii? Questions

7. DATA FEMA – Lidar 2006 Average point distance is 3 ft 1074 tiles on Big Island 500,000 bare earth pts /tile ± 0.51 ft vertical accuracy (95% CI) Elevation Data

8. Kaloko Honokohau National Historical Park Geospatial anchialine pool data -abiotic and biotic (Marrack & Beavers 2009)

9. High Tide 2.28ft

10. Sea Level Rise (1 m) 3.28 ft

11. (5.57 ft) Sea Level Rise + High Tide 5.57 ft

12. (5.57 ft)

13. Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge?

14. Inundation of pools by 2100 81% of 194 current pools will be inundated by 1 m SLR at High Tide Inundation of pools by 2100 (5.57 ft)

15. Future and Present Pools (5.57 ft)

16. Include archaeological features, wetlands, fishponds Expand analysis within Ala Kahakai NHP corridor Make products available to researchers, managers, and planners What next?

17. 1)What are the distribution and dispersal patterns of invasive M. lar in anchialine pools in the State of Hawaii? - population genetics of M. lar populations - stream and anchialine pools Hawaii, Guam, French Polynesia 2) What are the relative and combined impacts of M lar, invasive fishes (poeciliids, Tilapia) and elevated nutrients on anchialine pool habitats? - expand spatial coverage of surveys - experimental manipulations - nutrient flow through food web (isotopes) Distribution, dispersal, and impacts of the introduced Macrobrachium lar within anchialine pool ecosystems

18. Mahalos Rick Gmirkin & Arik Arakaki - Ala Kahakai National Historical Park, Sallie Beavers-NPS, Delwyn Oki-USGS, Eric Grossman-USGS, Rebecca Most-UH Hilo, Scott Santos – Auburn University

19. Macrobrachium lar study Samples Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n Samoa – NPS 20 n Anchialine Pool July 2010 & July 2011 25n, 6 sites 147n, 8 sites 15n, 2 sites 52n, 6 sites 47n, 4 sites

20. Macrobrachium lar study Samples Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n Samoa – NPS 20 n Anchialine Pool July 2010 & July 2011 65n, Ohiki Makalawena Mauna Lani Halape Kapoho Puako (1) Successful PCR with 1 COI primer set. Several sequences produced MORE NEEDED!

21. Ron Kwok, 2009, NASA/JPL

22. DATA Local Tidal Datum Kawaihae/Hilo Lidar Vertical Datum 0 Mean Sea Level 2.29 ft (0.698 m) Highest Observed Tide 3.28 ft 1 m Sea Level Rise 5.57 ft (1.698m)Sea Level Rise + High Tide