1. Public opinion
Chapter 6

2. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives
6.1 Decide why public opinion is powerful 6.2 Describe how well polls measure public opinion 6.3 Identify who drives public opinion—citizens or elites 6.4 Discover how ideology and partisanship shape public opinion 6.5 Describe how demographic characteristics influence public opinion
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

3. The Power of Public Opinion
The Power of Presidential Approval
What Is Public Opinion?
Expressed through voting
The Public’s Support of Government
Efficacy
Political trust
Key Question
What does a decline in efficacy and public trust mean for American democracy?
approval rating:
Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage.
public opinion:
Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials.
efficacy:
Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government.
political trust:
Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

4. Approval Ratings of President Barack Obama, 2009-2014
Figure 6.1
Presidents’ approval ratings generally decline during their time in office, but President Obama’s popularity experienced a brief surge after the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Millennials have a higher approval of the president than older Americans.
Source: Gallup
Key Question
Were President Obama’s policies responsive to public opinion?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

5. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Public Opinion Polls
Gauging Public Opinion in the Past
Scientific Polling and the Growth of Survey Research
Gallup’s random sample
U.S. government survey research 1940s
President Kennedy first to make use of polls
random sample:
Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included.
Key Question
How do public officials learn what citizens think?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

6. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Public Opinion Polls
Types of Polls
Tracking
Exit
Push
Error in Polls
Confidence interval
The Future of Polls
Telephone surveys affected by cell phones
Key Question
Are polls the best way to find out what the public thinks?
tracking polls:
Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections.
exit polls:
Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted.
push polls:
Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled.
confidence interval:
Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account.
nonattitudes:
Sources of error in public opinion polls in which individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it.
Key Questions
Have you ever looked at a poll and questioned its validity? How might you gauge a poll’s validity?
Do polls make sure the people’s voices are heard?
Should public officials be influenced by polls?
Do all Americans have an equal chance of being included in polls?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

7. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Public Opinion Polls
President Harry Truman holding up a newspaper proclaiming that he lost the 1948 presidential election to Thomas Dewey. But Tribune’s polls were wrong, and Truman had actually won that election.
Source: Time and Life Pictures/Getty Images
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

8. What Drives Public Opinion?
Social and Political Environment
Socialization
Generational Effects
The Great Depression
Same-sex marriage
Self-Interest and Rationality
Families interested in education policy
Elites
Undue influence?
Key Question
How do individuals form their political opinions?
socialization:
Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes.
Independents:
Individuals who do not affiliate with either of the major political parties.
Millennials:
Generation born between 1982 and 2003.
self-interest:
Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being.
rationality:
Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-interest.
Key Questions
Have your political opinions ever changed? If so, what led to the change?
What are the sources of public opinion?
Does every citizen have an equal chance to be heard?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

9. Shift in Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage
Figure 6.2
Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?
Source:
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

10. The Shape of Public Opinion
Partisanship
Allegiance to a political party
Predictor of attitude on a range of issues
Ideology
Liberals tend to be Democrats
Conservatives tend to be Republicans
Moderates
Party identification:
Psychological attachment to a political party; partisanship.
political ideology:
Set of coherent political beliefs that offers a philosophy for thinking about the scope of government.
liberals:
Individuals who have faith in government to improve people’s lives, believing that private efforts are insufficient. In the social sphere, liberals usually support diverse lifestyles and tend to oppose any government action that seeks to shape personal choices.
conservatives:
Individuals who distrust government, believing that private efforts are more likely to improve people’s lives. In the social sphere, conservatives usually support traditional lifestyles and tend to believe that government can play a valuable role in shaping personal choices.
moderates:
Individuals who are in the middle of the ideological spectrum and do not hold consistently strong views about whether government should be involved in people’s lives.
levels of conceptualization:
Measure of how ideologically coherent individuals are in their political evaluations.
Key Question
How does party identification relate to ideology?
Key Question
Does party loyalty shape public opinion?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

11. A Recent Rise in Independents
Figure 6.3
In the last few years, there has been an increase in the share of Americans who claim to be independents.
Source: Source:
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

12. Liberal Policy Mood of Americans, 1952-2012
Figure 6.4
The policy mood of Americans is rarely fixed, moving toward liberalism following George W. Bush’s election in 2000 and then toward conservatism following Barack Obama’s election in 2008.
Source: Adapted from James Stimson, “Policy Mood,” accessed January 17, 2014, /Welcome.html.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

13. The Shape of Public Opinion
Is the Public Informed?
Fewer than half know the name of their own congressional representative
Yet voters hold their legislators accountable
Know candidate’s views on salient issues
Is the Public Polarized?
Congress has become more polarized
Worries of public incivility
polarization:
Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy.
Key Questions
How coherent is public opinion?
Is the public becoming more liberal or more conservative? How can you tell?
Is public opinion worth listening to? Should elected official care about public opinion?
How much information does the public need to possess to make self-government possible?
Do political parties influence public opinion, or is it the other way around?
How would you explain the fact that political trust has declined in recent decades, yet interest in elections has increased?
Key Question
Does polarization prevent good policy making?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

14. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Party Polarization
Figure 6.7
Since 1975, polarization in the U.S. Congress has been on the increase.
Source:
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

15. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Group Differences
Socioeconomic Status
Occupation, education, income, wealth, lifestyle
Political parties have a class bias
Age
People become more conservative as they age
Religion
Influence of Roe v. Wade decision
gender gap:
Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women.
Key Questions
Does being a member of a demographic group shape opinion?
Is your political opinion shaped by your social class, age, religion, gender, race and ethnicity, and/or education level?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

16. Differences of Opinion on Abortion Among Religious Groups, 2013
Table 6.1
Source: Pew Survey July 2013
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

17. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Group Differences
Gender
Political gender gap emerged in 1980s
Women became more supportive of democrats
Women more liberal than men
Race and Ethnicity
Three times as many African Americans favored affirmative action in 2012
Political opinion divided among Latinos
Asian Americans more liberal than white Americans
gender gap:
Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

18. Latino Electorate Projected to Grow in Key States
Figure 6.8
Both parties need to find ways to reach out to Latino voters if they want to win elections in the coming years. Source:
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

19. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Group Differences
Education
Today, more than one in two Americans have attended college
More access
Generational replacement
Generational replacement refers to the idea that older, less-educated citizens have passed on, and the average level of education of the American public has thus increased.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

20. Percentage with “Some College” Education, 1948-2012
Figure 6.9
Since the end of World War II, education levels have steadily increased. Level of education is a factor affecting public opinion on a range of specific issues.
Source: American National Election Studies.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

21. Public Opinion and Democracy
Elections express the public’s will
Public officials stay in touch through public opinion polls
Some say connection between opinion and policy is weak
Politicians adopt views that will not arouse electorate’s anger
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

22. The Door-to-Door Fight for Votes in Virginia
Click picture to view video
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

23. Video Discussion Questions
How does ideology shape political participation?
Does personal contact change your support for a candidate? Does it change your opinion of his or her views?
Do you share your opinions with political volunteers? Why or why not?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.