1. Managing sustainability transitions The Dutch Energy transition René Kemp Presentation at SDRN meeting London, 22 Sept, 2004 MERIT & DRIFT

2. Contents NMP4: the need for sustainability transitions What is transition management Transition management in practice. The example of sustainable energy policy Conclusions

3. Why do we need transitions? NMP4: persistent environmental problems (climate change, biodiversity, depletion of resources, threats to human health) require system change or transitions towards alternative systems of energy supply, transport, resource use, agriculture existing policy is not enough (transitions require changes in policy)

4. What is a transition? Transition is a process in which something changes from one state to another (Collins Dictionary). Societal transitions are transformation processes resulting in a new type of coherence (system logic) that constitutes the basis for further development

5. A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)

6. Transition phases Take off Breakthrough Predevelopment Stabilisation Time Magnitude of societal change Rotmans, Kemp, van Asselt (2001)

7. Transition management …. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and visions … is a model for governance in which different visions and routes are explored:

8. Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic Political margins for change State of development of solutions Societal goals Sustainability visions Transition management: oriented towards long- term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal) Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)

9. Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and frame condition policies … is a model for governance, relying on self- organisation

10. Sustainable energy economy: –economically efficient (profit) –reliable (people) –minimal negative environmental and social impacts (planet) Long term goals, combined with Concrete short term steps …and successes...

11. Areas of interest in the Energy transition Policy Renewal Biomass Sustainable Rijnmond New Gas Eff. Energy Chains

12. 2050 Transition Paths 2020 Transition Paths 2008 Present Visionary: Global Images Strategic Vision: Concrete EfficiencyBiomassNew Gas Experiments Research Experiments Go - No Go More abstract More concrete

13. 2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supplyVision 2020 Strategic goals 10-15% in power prod.15-20% in traffic 2003 2 à 3 % Transition Paths C. Biofuels B. Pyrolysis A. Gasification Expv EOS Exp EOS : experiments: R&D The biomass transition

14. Transition management for the energy transition Strategic: choice of over-all direction –safe, reliable, cost-effective, climate-neutral and robust energy-system Tactical: –5 subtransitions (Biomass, New Gas, R3, Clean fossil, Policy Innovation) –4 networks/communities Companies, governmental bodies, scientists, ngos Operational: paths and experiments Over 80 million Euro invested directly Energy innovation research: Eur. 200 Mil. 75 coalitions and transition experiments

15. Signs of progress Community building –Bioplastics (bcpn), biofuels (various) Communication –Logos, programs, conferences etc. Societal debate –Sustainability of biomass, biofuels, other energy options Political sense of urgency –Energy-innovation report, dutch presidency, parliamentary debate Learning –At ministerial, municipal level, within scientific community

16. Transition management is not a megalomaniac attempt to control the future But an attempt at goal-oriented modulation, relying on variation and selection (through markets and public choice) It is a model for governance in which system innovations are explored, in a stepwise manner Conclusion

17. Policies for science and technology must always be a mixture of realism and idealism Chris Freeman (1991)

18. 1.The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism) 2.The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes) 3.Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies) 4.Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability 5.Opening up of policy process (less domination by vested interests) Whats new about transition management?

19. Ways in which transition management address the 5 key problems of SD policy Dissent: agreeing on key performance parameters for functional systems Distributed control: visions, long-term goals and programmes for system innovation Short-term steps: strategic experiments and steps towards changing frame conditions Danger of lock-in to suboptimal solutions: portfolios and adaptive policies Political myopia: transition agendas, arenas, forgoing technical fixes

20. Questions To what extent is the UK involved in transition management? Will the UK be more successful in reducing CO2 than NL but less successful in creating new energy business?