1. Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals
Coleman Research Group Presentation
Jan. 24, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
821
Imports 8 28 29
162 35
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,335
5,300
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,400
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
1,450
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,150
Ending Stocks
1,631
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,454
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,700
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,495
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,304
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
56.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.5
46.3
43.7
47.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,266
2,130
Beg. Stocks
657
976
862
743
718
Imports
119 97
112
123
160
Total Supply
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,131
3,008
Food
919
926
941
945
950
Seed 69 71 76 73 74
Feed & Residual
150
132
162
388
250
Exports
879
1,289
1,051
1,007
1,125
Total Use
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,414
2,399
Ending Stocks
608
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.77
6.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Bottom: % Change from last year
Winter Wheat Acreage
Top: 2014 Planted Acreage
Bottom: % Change from last year
Units: Thousand acres
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Small Grains Summary Sorghum Barley Oats 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
6.2
8.1
3.6
3.5
2.8
3.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
49.8
59.6
67.9
71.7
61.3
64.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
247
389
220
215 64 66
Beg. Stocks 23 15 60 80 55 36
Imports 10 25 93 95
Total Supply
279
404
304
320
212
197
Feed & Residual
125 59 65 98 85
Food, Seed, & Other
100
155 76 77
Exports
160 9 1 2
Total Use
264
385
223
230
176
164
Ending Stocks 19 90 33
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.33
4.20
6.43
6.00
3.89
3.60
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Wheat Rust 3 types: stem, leaf, and stripe
Affects wheat, barley, rye, and some grasses
Spread by spores
Prefers wet conditions
Stem rust: degrees
Leaf rust: degrees
Stripe rust: degrees

10. Oakley CL Wheat
Oakley CL is a new hard red winter wheat Clearfield variety released this fall by the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station.
This new variety has very good resistance to wheat streak mosaic virus and stripe rust. It is moderately susceptible to leaf rust. Its best area of adaptation will be western Kansas.
Registered and certified seed of Oakley CL will be available in the fall of 2014.

11. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 14 14

15. Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

16. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Wheat Export Pace
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Corn Grind for Ethanol

25. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)25 25

26. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

27. Current Corn Futures
4.40
4.34
4.29
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

28. Current Soybean Futures
12.57
10.77
10.57
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

29. Current Wheat Futures
6.65
5.98
5.75
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

30. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

31. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

32. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets
Acreage allocation for 2014, Where do the extra acres go?
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(1/21/14)
Corn
$6.95
$4.40
$4.34
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.57
Wheat
$7.77
$6.80
$6.65

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: