1. Production and use of regional climate model projections at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Erik Kjellström Rossby Centre, SMHI Trusted data services to support climate change research Side event at ”Our common future under climate change” Paris 6th of July 2015

2. Adapting to a changing climate? ? ? ?

3. Information from climate models exist
But details are not captured: example winter (DJF) precipitation
Observations A typcial GCM
mm/month

4. Downscaling to increase resolution
Global modeling
Regional modeling
Local/regional studies

5. RCMs can improve the situation
Details captured in a better way: example winter (DJF) precipitation
Observations ECHAM5
RCA3-ERA40
RCA3-ECHAM5
mm/month

6. Information lacking in many areas
… only in some regions has large-scale coordination of multi-model downscaling of climate change simulations been achieved …
(IPCC, AR4, 2007)

7. CORDEX initiated 2009 A Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
a growing need from society in climate change related information on regional scale with high spatial resolution
A Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme
General Aims:
Coordinate high-resolution Regional Climate Modeling
Provide a set of high-resolution Regional Climate Scenarios
for the majority of land-regions of the globe
Make these data sets available and useable to the impact
and adaptation communities

8. first focus on the African continent
CORDEX Domains
Arctic
NARCCAP
ENSEMBLES
RCMIP
first focus on the African continent
CLARIS
Antarctic

9. CORDEX: Experiment design

10. CORDEX: Model evaluation
First results from 10 RCMs forced by ERA-interim (reanalys) on the boundaries for
Resolution 50km

11. CORDEX: Experiment design

12. Experiment design at SMHI
RCA4 set up on the Euro-CORDEX domain at 0.44° (~50 km) and 0.11° (~12.5 km) horizontal resolution. ERA-Interim and GCM driven simulations
RCA4 nested in (GCM name)
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
CanESM2 X
CNRM-CM5
X X
EC-EARTH
GFDL-ESM2M
HadGEM2-ES
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC5
MPI-ESM-LR
NorESM1-M
1 (1)
9 (5)

13. Production Lateral boundary conditions
Post-processing / quality checking
Model run
Publishing

14. Annual mean change compared to 1961-1990 for:
Future changes
Change in precipitation versus temperature for all land points in Europe
Annual mean change compared to for: *
RCP4.5
RCP8.5 ●

15. Future changes
Change in precipitation versus temperature for all land points in Europe

16. Future changes
Change in precipitation versus temperature for all land points in Europe

17. Future changes RCA4 reduces the spread and somtimes
Change in precipitation versus temperature for all land points in Europe
RCA4 reduces the spread and somtimes
changes the order between scenarios

18. Changes in JJA mean precipitation

19. Results easily accessible
Data information portal (
Earth System Grid Federation (
More than 1500 users worldwide

20. ECDS is a Swedish e-Infrastructure that offers
a simple self-service registration for data and metadata providers
digital objects identifiers (DOI) for research data
secure storage of research data with metadata
ECDS is optimized for researchers who
do not have adequate facilities for storing research data with metadata,
cannot guarantee long-term persistence of their locally-stored data,
do not have adequate facilities to easily share data or metadata.

21. National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
The center is run by SMHI on behalf of the government
Works in broad collaboration with stakeholders in the area of climate change adaptation
A node for the understanding of climate change adaptation
Collects, develops and shares research, information and good examples to facilitate sound decision making
Runs the Swedish Climate Change Adaptation Portal klimatanpassning.se
SMHI fick i regeringens budgetproposition från september 2011 i uppdrag att inrätta ett nationellt kunskapscentrum för klimatanpassning, som sedan januari 2012 finns på SMHI
Länk:
Nationellt kunskapscentrum för klimatanpassning driver Klimatanpassningsportalen.

22. Changes in Sweden (www.smhi.se)

23. Changes in Sweden (www.smhi.se)

24. Changes in Sweden (www.smhi.se)

25. Changes in Sweden (www.smhi.se)

26. Linking to the observed climate
Changes in Sweden (
Linking to the observed climate

27. Information about main direction and uncertainty
Changes in Sweden (
Information about main direction and uncertainty v

28. Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios
Climate Change Adaptation
Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios
What is climate scenarios
Which climate scenarios exist
How can climate scenarios be used
Effect studies as support
Climate change adaptation – to start

29. Summary
Regional climate models can provide detailed high-resolution data relevant for impact studies and adaptation measures
CORDEX contributes to providing RCM data for all continents
CORDEX data are shared through the ESGF nodes and are being extensively used worldwide
SMHI has produced a large amount of RCM projections for CORDEX
SMHI use CORDEX data in dialogue with end Swedish end users

30. Thanks for your attention!