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Security & Cooperation

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Presentation on theme: "Security & Cooperation"— Presentation transcript:

1 Security & Cooperation

2 Security Challenges

3 Increase in Arms Transfers
Cold War, post-CW More weapons in circulation UNSC P5 + 1 UN ATT proposal Rank Supplier Arms sales 1 U.S. $12.4 b 2 Russia $615 m 3 France $216 m 4 Germany $165 m 5 China $113 m 6 U.K. $121 m

4 Increase in Severity: Technology
Saudis use cluster bombs in Yemen

5 Increase in Frequency Decolonization Civil unrest
One state, multiple nations Nation without a state

6 One State, Multiple Nations
Ethnic Groups Pashtun 42% Tajik 27% Hazara 9% Uzbek 9% Ismaili 4% Nuristani 4% Turkmen 3% Baluchi 2%

7 Nation without a State Nations Kurds Chechnyas Basques Catalans
1 nation, 7 states Chechnyas Basques Catalans Others?

8 Recent Security Threats

9 Soviet Empire 15 Countries

10 History Repeating Itself?
Rising Soviet Union Munich Conference  Sudetenland Appeasement Policy Concerns Neville Chamberlain ‘appeasing’ Hitler, 1938

11 Baltics = Sudetenland? Native-speaking Russians Fear annex by Russia
Why is the Baltic situation compared to the Sudetenland? Native-speaking Russians Estonia = 25% Latvia = 27% Lithuania = 6% - but– Kaliningrad factor Fear annex by Russia Russia  Ukraine (Crimea annex) Latvian Russians’ support Poland’s concern Want EU, NATO to do more Tougher sanctions Gas supply

12 NATO’s Russian City How is Narva, an Estonian city, a potential threat to its country? Razed by SU colonized by Russians Ethnic Russians = 83% of city Minority among Estonians Citizenship is divided Estonian (47%) v. Russian (37%) Fears of secession

13 Finland’s Russia Concern
Border History of invasion attempts Finland Georgia, Ukraine Limited allies Didn’t join NATO Sweden Russia’s ‘asymmetrical’ threats Asylum-seekers Arctic troops Cyber-attacks Russia’s ambitions

14 Sweden & Russia Why concern about Russia? Neighbors
Russian bombers Crimea Not NATO member, but ‘Host nation’ agreement Good strategic point to Baltics Norway NATO member Neighbors Finland- joint operations by air, sea Norway- joint exercises

15 Russia’s Aggression- Recap
Ukraine Crimea annexed Eastern revolt Ethnic Russians in Baltics Finland Norwegian waters, Arctic Circle Syria Vostok 2018 link NATO’s concerns

16 North Korea Concerns link UN Resolution 2270 (2016)
Concerns link UN Resolution 2270 (2016) Sanction violations Coal exports link, oil imports link

17 Terrorism What is terrorism? Instill terror in civilians
Political, religious, ideological Colonization, westernization

18 Int’l Terrorism State-sponsored terrorism
Organize, attack across borders al-Qaeda, IS, al-Shabab State-sponsored terrorism Rwanda (Tutsi)  M23 Congo rebels Iran (Shia)  Hezbollah, Houthis

19 Domestic Terrorism Objectives Is domestic opposition terrorism?
Attention Challenge gov’t Independence Basques- Eta Is domestic opposition terrorism? Freedom fighters v. terrorists Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK)

20 Additional Threats Transnational crime Cyber attacks Piracy
Traffic drugs, humans, weapons, etc. Cyber attacks Target infrastructure Steal data Bias elections Piracy World health Pandemics

21 Security through Cooperation

22 Collective Security Bilateral Multilateral- NATO, AU, UN, etc.
Finland & Sweden, US & S Korea Multilateral- NATO, AU, UN, etc. Antipersonnel Mine Treaty 161 signed- Russia, China didn’t U.S.  sign w/ Korea exception UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) Nuclear, chemical, biological conventions

23 Charcoal & Somalia

24 Combatting Terrorism Supply Demand Unique charcoal
Charcoal & Somalia Supply Demand Unique charcoal Gulf states – shisha lounges al-Shabab takes a cut Ignore ban ‘Taxes’ ‘Shareholders’ UN export ban enforcement Weapons from Yemen

25 Combatting Terrorism (cont.)
Curbing exports: AU, Somali troops Move to Kismayo Use anti-piracy forces Get sanction compliance

26 Consequences of COnflict

27 Arab Spring Arab Spring -2011

28 Arab Spring uprising in Syria Civil war (2011) link
Assad gov’t v. rebels Kurds EU, US back Kurds Turkey fights Kurds Other issues Islamic State presence Iran backs Hezbollah in Lebanon Israel v. Iran UNSC paralyzed by Russia Vetoed UN Resolution Pro-Assad Pro-Rebels Iran E.U. Russia U.S. Turkey

29 Syria Mass extermination Mass migration > 500,000 deaths
Chemical weapons, bombings Mass migration Internal External 5.6+M link Syrian refugee camp in Jordan- 600,000+ people

30 Yemen Arab Spring uprising Civil war (2014) Hadi gov’t- Sunni Muslims
Backed by SA, several MENA, UK, US, FR President in exile Houthi rebels- Shia Backed by Iran al-Qaeda presence Death, injuries, disease, famine, migration

31 The Bigger Picture Regional struggle: Iran v. Saudi Arabia Proxy wars
Iran backs Shia Muslims Russia Saudi back Sunni Muslims The West, Israel, Gulf States (except Qatar) Proxy wars Syria Yemen

32 What are the int’l consequences of conflict?
Spill-over effect Creates hostilities Interferes with trade Forestalls development Emigration Intervention issues

33 Recap ↑ conflict Recent threats Need int’l cooperation
Nations w/in states; nations w/o states Recent threats Arab Spring Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon N. Korea Russia Need int’l cooperation

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