1. Regional Policy developments
By Lewis Dijkstra
Economic Analysis Unit, DG for Regional and Urban Policy
WORKING GROUP ON REGIONAL, URBAN AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT STATISTICS October 2015 1

2. Main Points Cohesion Policy Period 2014-2020
Territorial Scenarios and Impact Assessments
EU 2020 index
EU regional Social Progress Index
Lagging regions project

3. ESIF programmes
Of the 91 INTERREG programmes, 62 have been adopted and at least 24 programmes will be adopted by the end of the year.

4. Ex-ante conditionality

5. EAC Statistical systems

6. Open Data on Cohesion Policy
Period
Period
Allocations by thematic objective
Payment claims
Output and result indicators
Article 16 report in December
Cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu

7. Territorial scenarios & impact assessmenTs

8. Why is the Commission setting up territorial scenarios?
Create a central baseline scenario for EC territorial impact assessments
Inform the discussion on the future of cohesion policy and the lagging regions project
Stimulate a debate on the possible and desirable future spatial distribution of population, employment and economic activities

9. What is the Commission doing?
REGIO and JRC are setting up a limited set of economic and demographic regional projections linked to national projections by ECFIN and regional projections Eurostat (EUROPOP2013).
The economic regionalisation is based on a sectoral trend extrapolation
The demographic regionalisation is done by Eurostat using regional demographic indicators
A further disaggregation to LAU-2 and grid level

10. Scenarios
A central baseline scenario which corresponds to Eurostat regional population projection
A convergence scenario, where productivity grows faster in low productive regions
But what about migration?
Other spatial scenarios (to be developed)
Compact development vs business as usual
Large city population growth vs more dispersed growth

11. What will be projected until 2050?
Population by age and sex
Migration
GDP
Employment
Land use
Accessibility
Spatial levels
NUTS-2 and 3
Local (LAU-2)
1 km grid
100m grid

12. Trend scenario: Population
Type 1 = > 90% average EU GDP/cap in 2010
Type 2 = 75%:90% idem
Type 3 = < 75% idem

13. Trend scenario: GDP (PPS)
Type 1 = > 90% average EU GDP/cap in 2010
Type 2 = 75%:90% idem
Type 3 = < 75% idem

14. Trend scenario: Employment
Type 1 = > 90% average EU GDP/cap in 2010
Type 2 = 75%:90% idem
Type 3 = < 75% idem

15. Trend Scenario

16. Trend for less developed regions
GDP per head convergence (combination of slightly faster GDP growth and a total population reduction)
Productivity convergence (slightly faster GDP growth with a significant employment reduction)
But population projections are a combination of now-casting, trend and convergence to 2150
Reverse migration? If so, when and why?

17. Europe 2020 index

18. Europe 2020 Strategy Targets
Employment
R&D
Education
Climate change and energy
Poverty
EU targets
National targets (optional)
Regional and urban variation

19. How do Member States score? 2010

20. How do Member States score? 2011

21. How do Member States score? 2012

22. Member States

23. Member States & Capital Regions

24. Member States & All Regions

25. Distance to 2020 targets
Cohesion Policy support is highest in regions far from targets
Good performance in most capital regions
Regional variation calls for adapted strategies (but not regional targets)

26. More information See the Regional Focus 01/2015
Includes a national, regional and urban level index
Measures both distance to national and EU targets
Will be monitored over time

27. EU Regional social progress index

28. Why an EU regional Social Progress Index?
A request from the regions to facilitate peer learning (Strong variation within countries!)
Is Cohesion Policy investing in the right issues?
Contribute to the debate on GDP and beyond
Harmonised data on social progress at regional level are missing

29. A joint three year project with
Social Progress Imperative (a NGO based in Washington DC. Advisory board is chaired by Professor Michael Porter, Harvard)
Orkestra Basque Institute of Competitiveness
DG REGIO with support from JRC

30. The European Union Regional Social Progress Index
Basic Human needs
Nutrition and Basic Medical Care
Water and Sanitation
Shelter
Personal Safety
Foundations of Wellbeing
Access to Basic Knowledge
Access to Information and Communications
Health and Wellness
Ecosystem Sustainability
Opportunity
Personal Rights
Personal Freedom and Choice
Tolerance and Inclusion
Access to Advanced Education

33. SPI and GDP per head

34. What is (not) the focus
It is not about distributing EU funding or determining regional eligibility
The headline index is to raise awareness and draw attention, but the real interest is in
The three sub-indices
The individual indicators
The changes over time (to be developed)

35. Why can SPI not be used for funding allocation
Mixture of official and other sources (EEA, Gallup)
Indicators have different margins of error
Each step in the process of setting up a composite indicator has a potential impact:
Data standardisation
Selecting how (weights?) to combine
the indicators into components
the components into dimensions
the dimensions into the final index

36. Lagging regions project
Focus on two groups of 'lagging' regions:
'Low growth regions’ (blue): characterised by a persistent lack of growth over the last decade or more
'Low income regions' (red): GDP on the rise, but remain very poor and doubts about the sustainability of growth.

37. 'Lagging Regions' Project
How to improve the economic performance of lagging regions?
Pillar 1:
Impact of macroeconomic imbalances
Pillar 2:
Impact of structural reforms
Pillar 3:
Impact of poor governance
Pillar 4:
What is the 'right' investment mix and place to invest?

38. Contributions to the work streams
Discussions with the Member States
Expert contributions: papers, seminars
Structural reforms
Institutions
Specialisation
OECD report on regional imbalances
In-house work on investment priorities and the best places to invest
Final Report with support of call for tender

39. Conclusions Discussion post 2020 will start next year
But in the meantime
Increased attention for the territorial and urban dimension
Territorial impact assessment
GDP and beyond
The role of institutions