1. Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa
Assessing vulnerability of urban systems, population and goods in relation to natural and man-made disasters in Africa
“Training on the job” Course on Hazards, Risk and
(Bayesian) multi-risk assessement
Napoli, –
Module 3.5: Desertification, Case Studies
Iavazzo, Topa, Terracciano
10/12/2018

2. MEDALUS METHODOLOGY ESAI VQI CQI SQI MQI Vegetation Quality Index
Fire Risk
Erosion Protection
Drought Resistance
Plant Cover
VQI
Vegetation Quality Index
Mean Annual Rainfall
Aspect
Aridity Index
CQI
Climate Quality Index
ESAI
Soil Texture
Rock Fragment
Slope Gradient
Soil Depth
Parent Material
Drainage
SQI
Soil Quality Index
Land Use Type
Land Use Intensity
Policy
MQI
Management Quality Index
(Kosmas et al., 1999)

3. CASE STUDY: TUSCIANO RIVER
Tusciano Basin
10/12/2018

4. VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
VQI
VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
FIRE RISK
Fire Risk
Vegetation Types
Index
Low
Bare land, perennial agricultural crops, annual agricultural crops (maize, tobacco, sunflower)
1.0
Moderate
Annual agricultural crops ( cereals, grasslands), deciduous oak, (mixed), mixed Mediterranean, macchia/evergreen forests
1.3
High
Mediterranean Macchia
1.6
Very High
Pine forests
2.0
10/12/2018

5. VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
VQI
VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
EROSION PROTECTION
Erosion Protection
Vegetation Types
Index
Very high
Mixed mediterranean macchia/ evergreen forests
1.0
High
Mediterranean macchia, pine forests, permanent grassland, evergreen perennial crops
1.3
Moderate
Deciduous forests
1.6
Low
Deciduous perennial agricultural crops (almonds, orchards)
1.8
Very Low
Annual agricultural crops (cereals). Annual grassland, vines
2.0
10/12/2018

6. VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
VQI
VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
PLANT COVER
Plant Cover
Plant cover %
Index
High
> 40%
1.0
Low %
1.8
Very Low
< 10%
2.0
10/12/2018

7. VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
VQI
VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
DROUGHT RESISTANCE
Drought resistance
Vegetation Types
Index
Very high
Mixed mediterranean macchia/evergreen forests
1.0
High
Conifers, deciduous, olives
1.2
Moderate
Perennial agricultural trees
1.4
Low
Periennal grasslands
1.7
Very Low
Annual agricultural crops, annual grasslands
2.0
10/12/2018

8. VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
VQI
VEGETATION QUALITY INDEX
Index
Vegetation Quality
Value
VQI 1
High Quality
VQI ≤ 1.13 2
Moderate Quality
1.13 < VQI ≤ 1.38 3
Low Quality
VQI.> 1.38
10/12/2018

9. Rainfall station considered
CQI
Climate QUALITY INDEX
GIFFONI VALLE PIANA
ACERNO
CAMPAGNA
EBOLI
BATTIPAGLIA
PONTECAGNANO A.M.
PONTECAGNANO
Rainfall station considered
10/12/2018

10. Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
CQI
Climate QUALITY INDEX
RAINFALL
Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)
Index
> 650 1
280 – 650 2
< 280 4
10/12/2018

11. ASPECT CQI Climate QUALITY INDEX Aspect Index NO – NE 1 SO – SE 2
10/12/2018

12. CQI Climate QUALITY INDEX
Bagnouls – Gaussen Index BGI
Ti monthly temperature in °C;
Pi monthly rainfall;
K % (2Ti-Pi>0)
Values BGI
Index
< 50
1.0
50 – 75
1.1
75 – 100
1.2
100 – 125
1.4
125 – 150
1.8
> 150
2.0
10/12/2018

13. CQI Climate QUALITY INDEX
Value CQI 1
High
CQI ≤ 1.15 2
Moderate
1,15 < CQI ≤ 1.81 3
Low
CQI > 1.81
10/12/2018

14. Shale, schist, basic, ultra basic, conglomerates, unconsolidated
SQI
SOIL QUALITY INDEX
PARENT
MATERIAL
Description
Parental Material
Index
Good
Shale, schist, basic, ultra basic, conglomerates, unconsolidated
1.0
Moderate
Limestone, marble, granite, Rhyolite, Ignibrite, gneiss, siltstone, sandstone
1.7
Poor
Marl, pyroclastics
2.0
10/12/2018

15. SOIL DEPTH SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Description Depth (cm) Index Deep
> 75 1
Moderate
30 – 75 2
Shallow
15 – 30 3
Very shallow
< 15 4
10/12/2018

16. TEXTURE SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Description Texiture Index Good 1.0
F, FSA, FS, SF, FA
1.0
Moderate
AS, FL, FLA
1.2
Poor
L, A, AL
1.6
Very Poor S
2.0
10/12/2018

17. DRAINAGE SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Description Index Well drained 1.0
Imperfectly drained
1.2
Poorly Drained
2.0
10/12/2018

18. ROCK FRAGMENTS SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Description RF cover (%) Index
Very Stony
> 60
1.0
Stony
20 – 60
1.3
Bare to slightly stony
< 20
2.0
10/12/2018

19. SLOPE SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Description Slope (%) Index
Very gentle to flat
< 6
1.0
Gentle
6 – 18
1.2
Steep
19 – 35
1.5
Very Step
> 35
2.0
10/12/2018

20. SQI SOIL QUALITY INDEX Soil Quality Value SQI High SQI ≤ 1.13 Moderate
Low
SQI > 1.45
10/12/2018

21. MANAGEMENT QUALITY INDEX
MQI
MANAGEMENT QUALITY INDEX
Cropland
Areas
Natural Areas
Pasture Areas
Index
Low
1.0
Moderate
1.5
High
2.0
10/12/2018

22. MANAGEMENT QUALITY INDEX
MQI
MANAGEMENT QUALITY INDEX
Description
Value MQI
High
MQI ≤ 1.25
Moderate
1.25 < MQI ≤ 1.50
Low
MQI > 1.50
10/12/2018

23. ESAI
10/12/2018