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Performance Significant Improvements to the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast due in-part to training and better tools for the forecasters Low ceiling and visibility.

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Presentation on theme: "Performance Significant Improvements to the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast due in-part to training and better tools for the forecasters Low ceiling and visibility."— Presentation transcript:

1 Performance Significant Improvements to the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast due in-part to training and better tools for the forecasters Low ceiling and visibility distant learning course Aviation Forecast Preparation System Transfer of San Francisco Marine Stratus Project from FAA/AWRP to NWS False Alarm Rate of Instrument Flight Rule Conditions predicted 9% better than FY04 goal 2 tangible things this year: 1. Improvements for our forecasters: Distance Learning training focused on low ceiling and visibility and significant improvements to the Aviation Forecast Preparation System, an AWIPS software application which gives our forecasters the tools to do better. San Francisco Marine Stratus project transferred Believe we are already seeing results with this focused attention on the aviation forecast challenge. We experienced significant improvements in the accuracy of the Terminal Aviation Forecast (TAF). One of our GPRA performance measures is the False Alarm Rate of  Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) (defined as ceilings and visibilities less than 1000 feet and/or 3 miles and greater than, or equal to, 500 feet and/or 1 mile). Our FY04 performance was 9% better than our FY04 goal.  In fact, our performance met our projected goal for FY10. FY 04 FY07 FY10 Actual 64 -- Goal 70 67

2 Next Year and Beyond Convective weather training
Focused “ops” training for CWSUs Infrastructure in-place to support Graphical Aviation Forecast from the Aviation Weather Center 2. Infrastructure for future: We’ve placed a full time position at the JPDO to ensure the DOC can effectively lead the multi-agency IPT for Weather that we have been assigned. Moved Mark Andrews from his Aviation Services Branch Chief role to lead this effort. NCEP building capability to support GFA Next year: Build on infrastructure theme; GFA although not ready until beyond FY05…need to prepare; committed to produce information/products in digital format Work with the airlines/partners to create implementation/deployment plan for improved observations from aircraft (water vapor) Convective training for our forecasters. Graphics TAMDAR=Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) TAMDAR and the Water Vapor Sensor are critical component of the NOAA Integrated Upper Air Observing System TAMDAR Deployment planning with Airlines for water vapor sensor Water Vapor Sensor


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