1. Nine Days WHILE YOU ARE WAITING
If one patch covers the garden in 10 days it covers half the garden in 9 days. Therefore 2 patches will each cover 50% in nine days (ergo the whole garden)

2. OH YEH!

3. BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS - OPEN FORUM
Jul 20, 2017
WELCOME!
Volume #299

4. AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY SWAPS AND SPREADS
OPTIMISM GAUGE
DIAGNOSTICS GAGE
FED TRACKER
SUM AND SUBSTANCE
HIGH IMPACT
WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
DAVID’S CORNER
ADVISOR INPUT
QUESTIONS/COMMENTS

5. THANK YOU! “NOTES” IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO
HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT
WE’LL KEEP EVERYONE ON MUTE SO WE DON’T GET FEEDBACK
PLEASE SEND US A QUESTION – WE’LL GET TO IT ASAP
WE WILL TAKE YOU OFF MUTE IF YOU RAISE YOUR “HAND”
THANK YOU!

6. BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!

7. Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”
BigFoot On LinkedIn!
Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”

8. “QUOTE” OF THE DAY: For once you have tasted flight….
….you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward.
Leonardo da Vinci

9. Optimism Gauge
As of: 7/20/2017

10. >50-day MA/>100-Day MA
Change
Measuring Our Economy
Last Update: 7/20/2017
Weekly Updates
New Monthly Updates
Indicator
Current Value
Prior/Metric Value
St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
(Rev)
+1.0
Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon M/A)
+0.04
+0.21 (Rev)
-.50
Unemployment
4.4% (May)
4.3% (Apr)
+2.00
Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av)
243,750
246,000 (Rev)
+.50
ECRI Weekly Index (Against 52 Wk Av)
143.1
143.7
Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW)
127.0
126.6 (Rev)
University of Michigan Sentiment – Final
95.1 (Final – Jun 2017)
97.1 (Final – May 2017)
Monthly Retail Sales – ex Autos (Adjusted)
375,627 (Jun -2017)
376,437 (May-2017) Rev
NFIB Small Business Sentiment
103.6 (Jun -2017)
104.5 (May -2017)
ISM Manufacturing
57.8 (Expansion Line = 50)
54.9
Economic Capacity Utilization
76.6%
76.7% (Rev)
Stock Market Moving Averages
Weekly Data Points
>50-day MA/>100-Day MA
N/A
S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index (YoY)
5.7% (Apr)
5.9% (Mar)

11. Economic Optimism Index
Measuring our Economy 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Economic Optimism Index
Current:
Prior:
90.54%
READING AS OF: 7/20/2017
Current Reading:
90.54%
Trend: Negative
Prior Reading:
91.57%(Rev)
Bias: Positive

12. Week of: Jun 17th, 2017 BigFoot Investments
Market Diagnostics
Week of: Jun 17th, 2017
BigFoot Investments

13. SENTIMENT INDICATORS Week of Jul 17th - 2017
1. AAII Investor Survey
2. TSP Sentiment Survey
3. NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment
4. CBOE Volatility Index
INTERNAL INDICATORS
5. S&P D MA and 200D MA AND 2/10 MA
6. NYSE Bullish %
7. S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX)
8. Percent of NYSE stocks above 200DMA
9. Percent of NYSE stocks above 10WMA
or 50DMA ($NYA50R)
10. NYSE 52-Week New Highs and New Lows
11. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 200DMA
12. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 50DMA
ADDED INDICATORS
13. Option Sentiment
14. Option Buyers Sentiment Gauge (OBSG)
15. Consumer Sentiment Index
16. Nasdaq Sentiment Index
17. Rydex Nova/Ursa Sentiment Indicator

14. Week of Jul 17th, 2017
17.64%
Prior: %

15. A QUIET FED Fischer Vice Chair
VOTING MEMBER
MEMBER
DISTRICT
TOPIC
LINK TO SOURCE
Fischer
Vice Chair
Fiscal policy need to address problem of productivity

16. UH OH
Now: 48.4%
Previous: 67.3%
Source: CME; Federal Reserve

17. Credit Anticipates-Equity Confirms
Swaps and Spreads
Rate
Prior
Current
Status*
Libor/OIS
0.14
Euribor/Eonia
-0.028
Markit CDX NA - IG Spread
60.35
57.45
Markit CDX NA- HY Index
106.99
107.55
DTCC Repo - MBS
1.169
1.106
DTCC Repo – Treasury
1.134
1.071
High Yield
3.72
3.69
Fed Reserve Currency Swaps-Short
35 (ECB)
0 (BOJ)
55 (ECB)
Fed Reserve Currency Swaps-Long
2-Year Swap Spread
0.226
0.228
TED Spread
0.250
0.190
As of: 7/19/2017 COB
*Note: Status = No major impact
Status = Moving Worse
Status = Negative Impact

18. SOME RUMBLES
Source:

19. SUM
SUBSTANCE

20. Industrial Production
THE BOTTOM LINE
Industrial Production
Housing
Interest Rates
Growth

21. WEEKLY MACRO DATA
ACCEPTABLE

22. BUSINESS ACTIVITY GREW MODESTLY
Source: NY Fed

23. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GROW BUT AT A SLOWER PACE
Source: Philly Fed

24. TREND STILL IN PLACE BUT SOME WEAKNESS
Source: Census Bureau; NAHB

25. WHO KNOWS
Source:

26. NOT SO “GOLDEN CROSS?”
Source: StockCharts.com

27. RATE THOUGHTS – A “ROCK AND A HARD PLACE”
The general thought is that rates will rise
Tapering and rate hikes by the Fed shape the rationale
Broader approach says maybe not
If inflation continues to wane Fed may have trouble increasing rates
Whether on not the Fed does “their thing” the yield curve should flatten
Business cycle moving toward last innings
Let’s say rates do increase – 10 year at 3%
This would move overnight rates close to 3% - a very restrictive position
Given current structural debt on corporate balance sheets short-term rates in 3% range would be unsustainable
But with current inflation data 3% is a high estimate – 2% would be closer
Data support a low rate regime for some time
Source: Guggenheim

28. “CORE” ISSUES
Source: Fischer

29. OVERALL KINDA BLAH
Source: Census Bureau

30. MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
Source: Federal Reserve

31. PICK ONE
2.5%
Source: Atlanta Fed; New York Fed

32. INTELLIGENCE
RISK FACTORS
Inflation
Ruts

33. TO PONDER IS GOOD
Source: WSJ; FRED

34. NO CORRELATION
Source: BLS

35. ANOTHER SIGN – LOW “I”

36. RATES CAN STAY IN A RUT
Source: Federal Reserve

37. OVERALL: DATA POINTS STATUS Comments Industrial Production Inflation
Some slowdown by region – overall holding
Inflation
Not responding at this point
Housing
Generally strong
Oil
Very volatile. Production creeping up
Interest Rates
In general not in line with market expectations
Growth
Just slow

38. THE GLOBAL CHURN China Eurozone CRITERIA SCORE Deficient 0-1 Poor 2-4
Satisfactory
5-7
Good
8-9
Excellent 10

39. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION JUMPS
8.0
Source: Trading Economics; National Bureau of Statistice

40. GDP HOLDING Source: Trading Economics; National Bureau of Statistice
7.5
GDP HOLDING
Source: Trading Economics; National Bureau of Statistice

41. ANNUAL INFLATION DOWN TO 1.3% IN THE EURO AREA
6.0
ANNUAL INFLATION DOWN TO 1.3% IN THE EURO AREA
Down from 1.6%
Source:
Source: Eurostat

42. U.S. Macro
0.100
0.075
Last
New

43. ADVISOR INPUTS

44. DAVID’S CORNER

45. QUESTIONS & COMMENTS
THANKS FOR JOINING US!

46. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Content is intended for investment professional use/review only. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot Investments.com), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for any investment professional’s clients portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. The investment professional retains all decision making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the presentation content. BigFoot has absolutely no responsibly for any suitability determination pertaining to any of the investment professional’s clients, such obligation being exclusively the initial and ongoing responsibility of the investment professional. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot Investments.com. BigFoot Investments.com. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Investment Professional acknowledges that to the extent required to do so, it is his/her/its exclusively responsibility to advise his/her/its employer/broker-dealer of its BigFoot subscription. BigFoot Investments.com is a service of Lee Johnson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment adviser located in Fort Worth, Texas. A copy of the Lee Johnson Capital Management LLC’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
No Sharing of Content: You acknowledge that the presentation content is for investment professional use only. You warrant and represent not to share any portion of the presentation content with any non-subscriber, including but not limited to your clients or prospects

47. WHAT WE WOULD BUY AT THIS LEVEL
REASON
STRATEGY THOUGHTS