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Consumers SIC 2018 Grant Olcott, Grant Gustein, and Sean Howard
Mindbody Buy Pitch Consumers SIC 2018 Grant Olcott, Grant Gustein, and Sean Howard
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Wellness Industry: growing at 10.6%
Early stages of growth; origins in 1970s Americans spend $30B a year on complementary health approaches (National Institute of Health) 360 degree wellness Most retail companies are out of touch with millenials, older, slower growth
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Leading SaaS Platform for large and growing global wellness services industry: beauty, yoga, fitness, ect. Scheduling, online booking, staff management, CRM, PoS, Payments, Marketing, analytics Founded 2001; app released in 2015 Rick Stollmeyer: CEO since 2004 One-stop shop, reliable experience Inc. Magazine top 500 fastest growing companies in the US, since 2008 Mindbody: Background products
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Growth and Moat Booker Software Punchpass Acquired for $150M
Adds 10,000 new providers Additional integration Provider size Functionality Security
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~59,000 subscribers ($125+/month) Diverse base Scalability
Reach ~59,000 subscribers ($125+/month) Diverse base Scalability Urban expansion Patents (US, CA, CN, EP, WO) System that gives listings of wellness providers to employers based off geographical proximity Trademarks Brand recognition, trust, loyalty
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Quantitative Analysis
Mindbody Square Intuit Current Ratio 8.70x 1.70x 0.60x Debt to Equity 0.06x N/A 0.95x Gross Margin 71.60% 85.95% 84.80% Rev Growth 37.10% 29.60% 10.30% Rev. per subscriber $3,336 $8,422 $620 # of countries 40 5 32 Price 42.2 54.89 178.59 P/CF 12.49 84.53 533.69 P/Sales 10.89 9.93 8.42 Quantitative Analysis CR: converted to cash within the next 12 months Positive net working capital Only uses 6% debt for financing
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Intrinsic Valuation Assumptions (from Investor Overview):
Based on 42% CAGR since 2012, growth rates for respectively, 30%, 28%, 26%, 24% Gross Margin: 82% R&D per sales: 13% SG&A: 8-10% EBITDA: 30% 15% required return; 3.5 Beta DCF Intrinsic Value: $48.47 Base case upside: 18.23% Bull: 35.12% Bear: 7.27% Intrinsic Valuation Fairly risky, return of 12% Beta of 4.59
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SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Adapts to shifts in cultural tastes: Yoga to MMA to Tanning Maintains a diversified client base: Fitness, Wellness, and Beauty Benefits from Network Effects: Clients and consumers magnify one another’s impact with every additional member Benefits from demographic changes: Urbanization clusters clients and consumers Millennials and Generation X are hip Expanding internationally: Operates in 40 countries and growing SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
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SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Requires a demanding growth model: Increase in subscribers AND an increase in the amount spent per subscriber (Very price sensitive) Focuses on upmarket clientele: A shift in cost preferences could require a new market strategy Holds greater liabilities with recent expansion: Compliance costs with local laws and regulation Requires venture capital trust: Cash infusions are fundamental to current growth SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
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SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Momentum to operate internationally: Globalization turns local trends global Tap into unorthodox demographic groups: Older generations are becoming comfortable with tech Grow through M&A: Acquire new subscribers (Booker) SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) Threats There is competition: Vagaro, Square, and Intuit Requires constant innovation to win: Needs to offer new, effective features to stay hip Cyber-security Liabilities (Equifax)
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Conclusion Buy MB, price target at: $48.47
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